Dynasty Debate: Odell Beckham Jr

Ken Moody

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Odell Beckham Jr burst onto the scene last year with an amazing rookie season which defied expectations.  Despite starting the year limited by sore hamstrings, Beckham first took the field in week five and never looked back. In just twelve games, Beckham caught 91 passes for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns.  If he continues to sustain this type of production in his sophomore season and beyond, it’s easy to see why he might be considered one of the top dynasty assets in the game.  A remarkable feat for any player with such a small sample size.

Most industry analysts consider OBJ to be one of the top dynasty WR’s, but where does he fall as an absolute dynasty asset?  Our own rankers all have him anywhere from the first overall dynasty asset to the 19th. Today we ask two of those rankers, DLF writers George Kritikos and Doug Green, to share their differing views on OBJ.  While both will consider him a valuable dynasty asset, those differing rankings reflect a difference in how they value a rookie who’s potential is as large as his resume is brief.
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George Kritikos6th overall

Doug and I share similar opinions on Beckham’s skill but we digress when it comes to our positioning of him relative to the field. This is not a player who is looking to take a next step in year two, but Beckham is a player who already has shown historic production in just one season.

Let’s look at a few numbers:

  • The only rookie since 1960 to average over 100 receiving yards per game
  • One of two rookies (Randy Moss) to average over one receiving touchdown per game
  • Highest catch rate (70.0%) in the last 20 years by a rookie who has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards

Unlike most rookies where we are trying to project out from a small sample, Beckham has a full season’s worth of targets (130) and statistics.

Looking at the team around him; Beckham enjoys stability at the quarterback position (Eli Manning), complementary receivers to divert some attention (Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle), and a multi-faceted run game that should keep defenses honest. While concerns of Shane Vereen taking targets exists, I see players like Larry Donnell (87 targets in 2014!) more vulnerable than Beckham.

The most important component of buying a dynasty share in a player is their talent. Beckham has shown it on the field and his athletic profile validates the production. Via Player Profiler, Odell Beckham has an elite catch radius (92nd percentile), an amazing accomplishment considering he is just 5’11”. Add in a phenomenal agility score, which measures balance and short area quickness by utilizing specific combine results, and Beckham has several advantages over other players.

I will bring up the one bugaboo that has consistently cropped up with Odell Beckham: injuries. Quite simply, he has been accused of being an injury risk. The hamstrings were an issue last year but predicting how much they will bother Beckham throughout his career is extremely difficult. For me, Beckham doesn’t present any more a risk than Dez Bryant (back), Julio Jones (foot), Rob Gronkowski (back), or A.J. Green (turf toe) – all players being drafted in the first round of dynasty startups.

Overall, I have Beckham right at the DLF top 100 consensus (6th overall) and I wouldn’t be surprised if he remains a first round dynasty staple for the next five to eight years.

Doug Green19th overall

First, let me begin by saying that I think Odell Beckham Jr. has a world of talent. He is my highest rated second-year player. I just happen to think people are looking at only the positive “what ifs” and not any potential problems that could be out there.

First, Beckham already has shown to have a propensity for injuries. Granted it’s a small sample size but he missed four games last season and is currently sitting out mini-camp with a sore heel – that many injuries in that short of time sets my Spidey Senses to tingling.

Second, is his quarterback. Yes, Eli Manning can get hot and make his wide receivers look very, very good. Eli can also get just as cold and make the whole team look terrible. I personally don’t have a lot of faith in Eli and a young wide receiver, especially one that misses time, needs a steady hand while he matures.

Third, is the Giants target situation. New York now has Beckham, Rueben Randle, import Shane Vereen and a potentially healthy Victor Cruz all looking for footballs. Beckham may still get the most targets out of that group, but I think the overall number will go down.

I personally like to give younger players a chance to mature before I start ranking them highly. I’d rather give the edge to a veteran player that has a track record than a youngster that has a year or less under his belt and I’m guessing what I’m really getting.

Recap

How you value high performing rookies and other young players will shape much of your dynasty strategy. If you are the type who prefers to avoid the hype and wait for players to prove their ability over several seasons, you will minimize your risk exposure, but you’ll also possibly miss out on some enormous potential. If instead you prefer to take even a small sample size as proof of potential, the rewards can be tremendous. Odell Beckham Jr certainly displayed rare talent and potential in his rookie campaign. The question remains, is he just getting started, or will he regress to a more typical level of play?

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ken moody