Roughing the Kicker: A Study in Dynasty Profitability (Part Four)

Eric Burtzlaff Posted On July 1, 2015

math

Conclusions

I constructed this study to understand from a mathematical/statistics side of things how typical dynasty league profit really works. Is the study perfect? Absolutely not. Do I feel it gives us a measureable method of mapping win-rates in dynasty football? I do.

What I found in this study was overall very exciting. Fantasy football can be a profit machine you always told your dog it was. Also, you probably need more friends, cause Velcro isn’t going call you out on your crap.

I expected to find a dire situation of very tight profit margins and an environment where giving away any profit was going to cost you long term financial pain. My hypothesis was wrong. Punting can be a viable strategy in dynasty football and actually might be an ideal strategy. I didn’t prove that latter statement today, but I think I personally am finally over my aversion to punting year 1. So, for all your enthusiasts of mailing in year one and going VERY young, here’s your mathematical proof that it can work out profitably if done well. Now with that being said, let me issue some devil’s advocate warnings:

“Eric’s article proves that drafting young and staying young is going to make me a lot of money, forever”

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No, it doesn’t. It proves you are allowed to go young and build a team that eventually grows old/productive and wins for several years in a row. If you are constantly churning your production players as they hit their production peaks for younger, sexier toys, you will be forever in a rebuild. It is highly likely that you won’t remain at a 80%+ playoff rate for over 5 years. Your team will get old and will need to rebuild which will likely cost you a couple of years. The key here is to know when it’s time to rebuild and start all over again.

“I have a method to win every year after my punt. I can maintain a 90% playoff rate for years and years to come”

No, you don’t and no you can’t. No one does. You can be profitable in dynasty, but winning every year forever is just not feasible, period. There will be a time in your dynasty career where veterans who are depreciating by the week are on your roster and SHOULD be there! Those are your winning years. Enjoy them and enjoy the natural rebuild that comes afterwards.

“So I read it here, punting is always a good idea! Yayz!”

Firstly, I bet you didn’t think I could work the word “Yayz” into a totally super serious mathematical study. So yayz to that.

And the answer here is NO! There are many different scenarios where punting is just a plain bad idea. If many owners in your start-up draft are going for a young-only punt strategy, you need to zag in the veteran value and take what you are given. Forcing any strategy whether its poker, dynasty, or zergling rush onto every situation will only result in you having a bad time. As a smart dynasty owner, pay attention to what’s occurring around you. Adjust to get maximum value.

Another situation that’s bad for punting is in a league that you don’t know the commissioner or many participants. Newflash: Dynasty leagues fold. If you are building the greatest team ever for year 3 and the league folds in of year 2, it doesn’t matter. This is something that gets overlooked way too much. Nothing is worse than a league folding on your team that’s destine for greatness.

“Seriously, Zergling rush?”

You prefer quick carriers with phoenix harassment? Or like mass-hydra?

Oh, you don’t care about starcraft? Oh… Uh… Let’s get back on target.

If dynasty is massively difficult to make profitable from, how much effect do fees really have on the profitability of the game? As I mentioned before, it’s a relationship built on your league buyin. The lower your league buyin the better your win-rate needs to be to breakeven. You can go from 65% to 45% win-rates between a $10 and $250 league. Lowering any league rates you can will result in a clearer path to profitability. I’d still recommend that you play a format and buyin that allows you to play comfortably and most importantly, have fun. In this same vein, higher stakes leagues don’t necessarily meant higher ROI. They, generally, mean the opposite. Higher stakes leagues have more serious players and less dead money.

Also, what effect does playing a high number of league have on your profitability? Trying to do too much of anything will result in losing value in everything. This principal is true with dynasty. I’d recommend you build up your leagues slowly. Are you able to stay on top of 8 leagues? Great, add two more leagues next year. Still on top of it? Add two more. Rinse, Lather, Repeat until you find your optimal number of leagues that also allow you to stay employed and married. Your win-rate will take a hit with each league you add but if it is high enough, it should be profitable to add a league and take a slight hit. Eventually, you’ll wonder how you ever played just your work re-draft league.

I hope you found this study insightful as I know I did. I hope I didn’t convince you to ignore important decisions because there’s a large window for profitability. 45% of your league in every case is losing money each year so let that motivate you.

Most importantly, dynasty football is supposed to be fun. Be honest with yourself with what you are hoping to get out of dynasty football. If you don’t care about your profitability, that’s completely fine and normal. You get a ton of entertainment for very little money. If you are a recreational player, that’s great. If you want to pay for Christmas presents every year, that’s great too. If you want to quit your job and do it full time, don’t. Just know who you are and what you want to be. Set your eyes on a goal and go for it.

I will likely dive into a couple more specific dynasty profitability scenarios with my calculator in future articles but currently, I’m tired of writing and I’m going back to drinking my corona.

I’ll leave you with a look at a $100,000 buyin dynasty league where you are making the playoffs 90% of the time:

finalchart

May your ‘X’ forever be above 90%!

If you would like to download a copy of the spreadsheet I created for this study, reach out to my on @dynastytrades and I will give you a link to the dropbox.

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