If you have not checked it out yet, James Simpson and I have brought 2QB top 100 rankings to DLF. We are both big fans of CJ Anderson regardless of the Denver Broncos offseason backfield battle and leery to invest too much into Matthew Stafford despite his prior accomplishments, but we do not agree on all players. Rather than turn our backs on each other where we disagree, we have decided to address the quarterbacks we differ on the most. If after reading this you crave more 2QB, content you will not be disappointed as this is only volume one of our 2QB Dynasty Debate.
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Breeze (15th overall, QB5): I would go as far to say Tannehill is a justifiable top 10 asset in 2QB leagues. His biggest knock is he struggles with throwing the deep ball, which I do not argue against but that really is his only weakness. Tannehill is entering his fourth NFL season and only started 20 games in college so his development is still happening as we speak. The Dolphins offensive line has been in shambles the last few years with the hazing incident and serious injuries to Mike Pouncey and Brandon Albert and Tannehill still finished as the QB10 in 2014. Not only will the blocking around him improve but he has also been surrounded by weapons this off-season. The additions of DeVante Parker, Jordan Cameron and Kenny Stills easily offset the loss of Mike Wallace and he also still has the perfect slot man, Jarvis Landry, to maximize Tannehill’s short range accuracy. Let’s also not forget that this ex-Aggie has some 4.6 wheels that will add on around another 300 rush yards to his fantasy point production. The Dolphins also opened up their pocketbooks this season to ink him to a long term deal. There are only a handful of franchise quarterbacks under the age of 30 currently in the NFL and Tannehill is one of them. I don’t think Tanny will ever become an elite fantasy option with seasons of 40 touchdowns and around 5,000 yards, but 5-10 years of low QB1 numbers makes him well worthy of this draft position in my opinion.
James (25th overall, QB10): After being given the opportunity to read Eric’s commentary before writing this; I don’t actually disagree with anything he said. However, my qualms with Tannehill are to do with price, upside and expectations. After Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, I am very cautious about what I will be paying versus how much of a difference-maker the player will be. Right now, the majority of dynasty drafters and our very own Podcast hosts agree with Eric’s QB6 rank, but I don’t think the Dolphin breaks into the top five, which creates a problem for me. This is a high price to pay for a player I don’t believe will be a difference-maker. I would prefer to wait for a) a rookie with room to grow (Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston), b) a player who I believe will give similar numbers for a few more years at a cheaper price (Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo) or c) go for broke with Drew Brees or Peyton Manning; who I think will give you a better chance to win over the next couple of years than Tannehill will over a longer period of time. I completely agree he is in a great situation, but I am also particularly wary after any quarterback has a breakout year when I believe they are a ‘middle-of-the-pack’ player. This time last year, Nick Foles had an ADP of QB7 after his first season in the same system, and I am approaching Tannehill with similar caution. He can be a good player for years to come, but this rank is more to do with what the expectations are versus the price.
James (22nd overall, QB7): The only requirement with having Brees this high is you must be able to win now. As I have discussed privately with Eric, you are committing to be a contender if you have him on your team. However, owning him is also a great chance to have production now and still be able to have other youngsters on your roster who won’t leave you stranded if they don’t perform. It is extremely important to find a balance between building for the future and competing, and Brees can be a perfect complement to a young group. His amazing scoring (he has scored over 30 points in a third of his games in his last three seasons; which tops the league) and stunning consistency allow for your QB2 to be up-and-down. Even in what was largely viewed as a ‘declining’ 2014, he had a top three finish and still scored 16.3 points or more every single week. I am very particular with what I am looking for on my teams; and legitimately outstanding NFL players are always welcome. It has been hard to acquire him for many years, but considering his ADP drop since last off-season, he now provides value for what you will need to pay.
Breeze (43rd overall, QB14): Drew Brees has been one of my favorite players in the last decade. I think his demise is being overstated right now even if my ranking makes it look like I am low on him. I still view him as a top 6-7 Quarterback in 2015 so I understand wanting him on a contending team, but I do not view him as one of the top 2QB options. He has been one of the, if not the best fantasy quarterback in the last five years, but the fact is he is now a 36-year old who has four small children and spends a huge portion of his time doing charity work. All those factors tell me he could hang up the cleats earlier than expected. He could also easily continue playing three more years, but as of right now I’m not comfortable taking him any higher than this since he is a quickly depreciating asset. Quarterbacks are almost impossible to replace in 2QB leagues and I’m not willing to invest a top 40 pick in a player who could be gone in the very near future. Also keep in mind that although Brees is a great piece for a contender, there are a limited number of trade partners available in your league. The tides of fantasy football can change quickly so if your contender falters, you may have to either sell him for less than you think he is worth or hold him and watch the end of his career dwindle away on your mediocre squad.
Breeze (55th overall, QB20): It’s not a secret that I am not a Derek Carr fan. I don’t think he is the long term answer in Oakland and I think his rookie year showed nothing that would change my mind. The only positive of his rookie year is that he didn’t get benched, other than that it was a total dud. In my opinion, he will give you low QB2 numbers the next 2-3 years and then be replaced. There is always a chance he keeps a starting job longer than late and the addition of Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Clive Walford and Roy Helu should help, but I’m still not holding my breath. Although I rank him as QB20, I would not bat an eye if someone took him over Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady and Blake Bortles (who are all ranked in the range of 50th-54th overall in my rankings). Carr also has one big thing going for him and that is his youth. If he improves in 2015, even if very slightly, I think many fantasy footballers will buy into him as being a franchise quarterback with a long career ahead of him. If this indeed does happen, his value will boom and give a great sell window this time next year.
James (42nd overall, QB14): I do not think Derek Carr is going to be a great NFL player. I’ve described him before as “a mix between Kevin Kolb and Ryan Tannehill”; suggesting he is Kolb-like in being scared of the pass rush/getting the ball out quickly rather than dealing with pressure, and Tannehill-like in that his great arm/tight spirals are easy to fall in love with but don’t paint the whole picture. That being said, I don’t feel strongly against him, and my QB14 valuation is simply a validation of his QB15 dynasty ADP. If it came to the fourth or fifth round and I still needed a quarterback, I might possibly wait to acquire a Sam Bradford, Robert Griffin III or Eli Manning, but I would not hesitate or feel disheartened with taking him. He is a second-year starter with a good arm and some new weapons, and should actually increase in value with good performances (as opposed to some of the older guys). As our Eric Olinger mentioned in his Raiders Dynasty Capsule, Carr did well considering he had argue the worst receiving group in the league and also experienced a mid-season coaching change. New offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave will pick up the pace (which Carr thrived in at Fresno State), and he has a star target in Amari Cooper. Great receivers benefit their quarterbacks, and look for Coop to give the sophomore a boost. I’m willing to take a chance on him.
Who do you agree with?
Who are the quarterbacks you rank differently from other owners?
Who would you like to see debated in the future?
Let us know in the comments section!
As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football