Weekly Twitter Observations

Luke Wetta

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Each week I will walk through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.

Quote of the Week

This is a great point from Johnny in regards to how you view players, particularly during the off-season. I read a lot of different opinions and views on fantasy players and normally you can find someone arguing for or against everyone (unless we are talking about CJ Spiller as I have yet to read one negative word against him). The main thing I always try and do though is to avoid forming any opinions on players until I am ready to set my rankings. As John noted if you are low (or high) on a player, the smallest news or note that backs up your view will only cement your stance. Renee Miller (@reneemiller01) has also written extensively about cognitive bias in fantasy sports. If you ever find yourself strongly for or against a certain player, look for an article or information that is opposition to your perspective. Also realizing that other owners may be buying into the continued hype of a certain player (Spiller) may help lead you to gain additional value through a trade.

Cardinals Wide Receivers

Rich Hribar shared this graph on the Cardinals wide receiver’s fantasy points by game in 2014.

[inlinead]As you can clearly see, there was little to no predictability from week-to-week with this group. This inconsistency all year lead to none of receivers ending up in the top 30 on the year, and if you removed Michael Floyd’s final game none would have been in the top 40. To be fair some of the problems the unit had were from the difficulties at the quarterback position. Carson Palmer is back and healthy for the 2015 campaign, but his presence will likely only help raise the fantasy floor of Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Floyd. The week to week guessing game on which receiver will score or hit the right matchup to pile up yards will not go away. Looking at current rankings, Floyd remains the highest rated of the three with Fitz and Brown a good deal behind. Personally, I am looking to avoid the trio based on the uncertainty from week to week and also not fully believing Palmer can make it through the year. If I had to bet on one though, I would be backing the cheapest option, John Brown. He showed flashes last season and the good news has been pouring in from the coaches and reporters.

Zach Ertz, TE PHI

Last season there was a lot of hype for the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. Coming off a solid rookie year and clearly the best receiving tight end on the team, he seemed like a clear break-out candidate. Unfortunately, he played about 50% of the total snaps due to his blocking not being up to par. But as Sigmund Bloom tweeted earlier, the hype may be more in line in 2015.

Looking back at the 2014 fantasy season, Ertz finished outside of the top 12 tight ends making the return on investment a loss for his owners. When Zach was in the game though, his targets per snap were fourth best out of 67 qualifying tight ends that saw at least 25% of their teams’ total snaps. The three players to finish better were Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Jordan Reed. Two of those three are elite options and Reed struggled to stay on the field. Zach has also been focusing on his blocking this offseason seeking outside help and was excelling in OTAs. His 700 yards receiving in 2014 was respectable and all signs are pointing to him playing more this year so his yardage should definitely climb. The main drain on his fantasy value of course was his lack of touchdown production, but Jeremy Maclin and his double digit scores have left town leaving more opportunities for Ertz. Philadelphia did draft receiver Nelson Agholor, but his size and strength is not even comparable to what Zach brings to the table. Everything is pointing towards Ertz being a starting tight end in fantasy for years to come and currently I would be inclined to place him fourth overall in dynasty amongst tight ends. I do not believe Julius Thomas can continue to succeed without Peyton Manning throwing him double digit scores. Greg Olsen’s most recent three year averages of around 900 yards and six touchdowns also feel like a good landing spot for Ertz and of course Zach is six years younger.

49er Running Backs

There were a couple of interesting notes from the 4for4.com team on 49ers running back Reggie Bush this week.

If the San Francisco offense struggles to score and the defense can’t keep opponents from piling up points then the first statement may end up being pretty accurate. Bush appears to be the clear passing down option for the team with Carlos Hyde logging most of the early down work. I also did not take John’s comment on Reggie as a ringing endorsement to draft the 30-year old as your RB2. More it shows Bush has been successful when healthy and all signs from the 49ers have been good. There really should be no expectations for Hyde in regards to receiving stats, which limits his weekly potential. Carlos has been slipping in dynasty rankings pretty steadily and finds himself somewhere around the 15th to 20th option amongst runners. Unfortunately for Hyde owners, he finally is rid of the ageless Frank Gore only to watch the team disintegrate around him and have the front office bring in a clear threat to workhorse level touches. If you play in a PPR league, Reggie Bush could easily be as valuable as Hyde in ’15 assuming both remain healthy.

Allen Robinson, WR JAX

Another player garnering some off-season hype has been Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson. Robinson only played in ten games after fracturing his foot last season, but news on the young receiver around the organization this year has been outstanding.


I doubt you will find anyone who doesn’t believe Robinson has the tools and ability to excel in the NFL. Discounting his first start of 2014, Robinson was also seeing an average of nearly nine targets per contest and never caught fewer than four passes in a game. Julius Thomas was brought in to help the passing game and the Jaguars still have Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns available, but it does not appear opportunity will be an issue. The only real question is at the quarterback position. Blake Bortles was Pro Football Focus’ worst rated passer out of a qualifying 39 players and it wasn’t even close. All of the pieces around Blake may have been improving, but if he is unable to progress there will be a definite cap on Robinson’s ceiling. In his tweet Brad Evans mentioned 70-1,100-7 “upside” for Allen in 2015. Unfortunately, those stats would have placed him right around the 20th overall fantasy receiver in standard or PPR leagues. Playing for the Jaguars under their current roster, Robinson is just not going to be a WR1 in fantasy. If he can continue to produce consistently like he showed in 2014 he can be a solid mid to low-end WR2 option on your team and his youth makes him valuable for a long time.

Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.

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