Searching for Consistent Greatness: A Summary (Part One)
In the past few months, I have looked at the weekly scoring of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends (in two parts) to determine which players have performed the best over the last three years. Here, I summarise the findings and collect some thoughts.
On ‘Consistent Greatness’
A dictionary definition of ‘consistency’ will say “staying the same,” “evenness” or “lack of change.” However, a distinction between ‘real-life’ consistency and what we were searching for in this study must be made. We were not looking for a low standard deviation or how often a player gives us the same thing – instead, how often they exceed a certain number of points and what that says about how they score their points. My concern is to fill my rosters with players who give me the best chance to score the most points every single week.
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Studies by Adam Harstad at Football Guys and our Brian Malone have indicated having a team of players who score the same number of points ‘consistently’ doesn’t provide a statistical advantage over one whose players are inconsistent. Harstad’s piece suggested most fantasy games are decided by blowouts (so you need big individual performances) and Malone’s determined “you’re much better off owning a player who gives you an inconsistent 15 points-per-game than one who gives you a consistent 14.25 PPG,” and consistency doesn’t matter much if you compare two players with the same PPG.
So, ideally, when searching for ‘consistent greatness,’ you’d like a player who has a strong weekly baseline and mixes in some huge game-winning performances. I am not saying we can predict consistency (multiple factors add up to points every single week), but this series gives us an idea of who has been scoring above ‘x’ number of points in the past. If we found out that a player scored a lot of points in one or two games, it has been a helpful exercise. If we realise that despite a lack of big games, a player has given a consistent floor over a long period of time; it has been a helpful exercise.
On Top Performers
Before the full summary of the research findings, I wanted to include this graph, which shows the total (yearly) points scored by the top 36 at each position last year:
- The graph shows 1-point PPR scoring from FFToday.com
- This provides an overview of what it means to have a top player in one position versus another
- Even though a lot of quarterbacks score highly, there is still a big difference at the top (QB1: 442.4, QB5: 378.3)
- If you don’t have a top running back, the drop off is huge (RB1: 370.5, RB5: 276.6). Having two ‘RB1s’ is a huge advantage
- Tight ends just don’t score as much as the other positions do
- ‘Investing’ in a position doesn’t mean you will win at it, so whatever strategy you employ, focus on picking the right players not just positions
The yearly scoring helps paint a picture, but throughout the study I turned my attention to weekly scoring. I began by creating baselines for each position (determining what it takes to be a top 12, top 24 or ‘superstar’ at the position each week), then worked out how many times each player hit those numbers in games that they played in the last three years. Here are the baselines I used to calculate where players finished each week, followed by the top performers:
- While most names are expected, there were some surprises (where they placed): Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Knowshon Moreno, Ahmad Bradshaw, Travis Kelce, Jermaine Gresham
- Russell Wilson was a surprise exclusion
- To clarify the quality of performances in these lists: anyone who has been in the top 12 more than half of the times they have finished outside of it is a pretty darn good fantasy player
- Peyton Manning’s ten percent separation shows just how outstanding he has been in the last three years
- Adrian Peterson was still dominating when he was playing and didn’t show signs of a decline. If you think that continues, you must secure him
- Odell Beckham was/is special
- We hear of the ‘weekly margin’ Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham provide – here is a clear picture of it. Within their position, they have been the best performers by far
- If Drew Brees could be himself for a few more seasons with a declining price tag, he will win championships for you
- Don’t get me started on CJ Anderson. I’ll go full fan-boy
- What do you get when you put Calvin Johnson and Antonio Brown together? Odell Beckham Jr, apparently (to be clear; this is a joke/hot take)
- Gronk and Graham >>>>> The rest
Come back tomorrow to check out the rest of the study!
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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