Rookie Player Profile: Todd Gurley

Paul Perdichizzi

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Strengths

Gurley has a rare blend of size and speed for a running back. He shows tremendous balance and power during his runs. He displays excellent vision to see and attack the hole. His strength and physicality is obvious in his runs as he is often breaking tackles and picking up extra yards. His ability to run inside and outside equally well, combined with his cutback ability allows him to fit in either a zone or gap running scheme.   He offers potential as a receiver as well, displaying good hands when given the opportunity.

Weaknesses

An ankle injury in 2013 and then suffering a torn ACL this past season, have led to durability concerns for Gurley. There is a concern that his aggressive, physical running style could make him prone to injuries, which could slow him down at the NFL level. Pass protection is one other area that Gurley needs to improve upon as he was not asked to do it much while he was at Georgia.

Opportunities

St. Louis wants their identity to be similar to the Seattle Seahawks – a strong defense with an elite running game. When the Rams invested the tenth overall selection on Gurley, it was because head coach Jeff Fisher envisioned him as a foundation back he can build the offense around. The Rams had Gurley rated as the number one prospect in the entire draft. Once he is fully healthy, he will become their lead back and offensive game plan will revolve around him. From his time coaching in Tennessee, with Eddie George as his lead back, Fisher has shown a tendency to feature his work horse back with as many carries as they possibly can handle. With few other weapons on offense, the Rams will waste little time utilizing Gurley as much as they can, once he is deemed healthy.

Threats

Even after investing many resources on the offensive line, the Rams are still considered to have one of the worst in the NFL. In addition to poor offensive line play, the Rams have few proven skill players at the wide receiver and tight end position. They also do not have a proven long term answer at the quarterback position in Nick Foles. With all of these issues on offense, defenses will focus on trying to slow down the running game, which could limit the amount of holes and running lanes that are there for Gurley. The other concern that could limit the impact of Gurley early in his career is the presence of Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham in the backfield as well. Mason had a solid rookie season, was taken in the third round last year and was looked upon as a rising player (in real life and fantasy) until the Rams invested a high pick in Gurley. While Cunningham is not a threat for carries, he is an above average back in terms of receiving and could continue to play a role as the pass catching third down player. If Mason and Cunningham both continue to have a role in the offense, the Rams backfield this season could turn into a messy committee, where no one lives up to their full fantasy potential.

Short-term Expectations

St. Louis will not rush back Gurley from his injury, so his short term expectations are tough to assess at the moment. It is very possible he starts the season on the physically unable to perform list and we do not see him until the middle of the season. Once he is ready to go, Gurley offers immediate RB2 fantasy value with upside, as he will lead the committee and become the focal point of the offensive game plan.

Long-term Expectations

Gurley was touted before the draft as the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. His floor in my opinion, provided he is healthy, is to be a RB1 by year two, while his ceiling is to be one of the top few running backs in the entire league. If Gurley can avoid any more serious lower body injuries, I do not see a scenario where he does not become an elite NFL running back.

NFL Player Comparison

Marshawn Lynch or Steven Jackson with more speed

Rookie Draft Advice

Gurley should be one of the first four picks in all rookie drafts this year. I would take him first overall, but with his injury and durability concerns I could understand others going with Amari Cooper, Kevin White or Melvin Gordon. While I usually prefer investing early rookie dynasty picks on wide receivers than running backs, Gurley is a truly special talent who makes me willing to change my approach this upcoming draft season.

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