The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

lacy

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

  1. How early in a rookie draft do you consider IDP rookies?Rod in CA

I’m more of an IDP novice than anything, but fortunately for our readers some of DLF’s 17 other Erics know their defense! So to answer your question, I’ll simply refer you to this piece by our own Eric Breeze.

  1. What is the value for acquiring a player like Rob Gronkowski, who is a top-five value player but scored 34th in our 16-team PPR league last season, mostly behind the quarterbacks and top receivers? I have been offered a deal of trading Colin Kaepernick, Charles Johnson (defensive end), Cecil Shorts and Charles Clay for Gronk and pick 2.04. Also note that Kaepernick scored more points that Gronk last season. Do I give up my only backup quarterback (behind Philip Rivers) to make this deal?Koke and Whiskey in OH

[inlinead]In deeper league formats quarterbacks definitely carry more significant weight, but that doesn’t mean you should use their raw output as a reason to justify not trading for the top tight end in dynasty football. Yes, in a standard PPR setting there were 17 quarterbacks who outscored Patriots star Rob Gronkowski, but the fact is 11 of them were clustered within roughly 2.0 points per game. Gronkowski, on the other hand, scored that much more, on average, than the PPR TE2! Colin Kaepernick isn’t even starting for you, and you’re not really giving up much else – this is about as close to a slam-dunk as you can get.

  1. I am currently rebuilding my team and am looking to move Adrian Peterson, but I am receiving very low offers for him. I am considering keeping him since our league implemented a new draft seeding for the first round. Essentially the draft seeding for the non playoff teams is decided by which team scores the most points after being eliminated from the playoffs. My question is two-fold: what value should I be considering as reasonable for AP, and am I justified in keeping him to try and obtain a higher pick with the points he scores?Aaron in WI

First and foremost I have to say I’m not a fan of your new methodology for draft seeding at all. Though it seems like it would safeguard against tanking, I don’t believe that happens with enough prevalence to justify such a move. I believe it simply isn’t fair to the teams that “earned” the number-one pick. But I digress…

Now that it’s all but established Adrian Peterson will be the bell-cow for the Vikings this year, he’ll once again be expected to post high-end RB1 numbers. As such, and especially given the transience of the position, his cost should reflect that – I wouldn’t sell for anything less than a future first round pick, and would prefer it landed closer to the middle than the end. As to the latter, I don’t think you’ll have a good enough idea as to how “semi-competitive” your team (as well as the other teams) will be until more of the season has gone by. Given that, I really wouldn’t worry about it just yet, as you’ll still have the chance to make a move or two come fall.

  1. Last year’s receiver class was obviously one for the ages.  For argument’s sake, I’m wondering if you could please combine the 2014 and 2015 rookie receivers and rank them from #1 through #12 to give us some realistic perspective for this upcoming class?Rob in IL

As a reminder, I partake in DLF’s positional rankings, which can be found here. Ryan McDowell is also working on combining the classes of 2014, 2015 and 2016 into a comprehensive top 75. You can find that here. Perusing those resources will effectively answer your question, while also providing my insights into every player I rank. But just for a primer, here are my top-12:

  1. Odell Beckham

—–

  1. Mike Evans
  2. Sammy Watkins

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  1. Brandin Cooks
  2. Allen Robinson
  3. Amari Cooper
  4. Jordan Matthews

—–

  1. Jarvis Landry
  2. Kevin White
  3. Kelvin Benjamin
  4. DeVante Parker
  5. Nelson Agholor

    5. In my 20-team non-PPR league I have a nice top-three at both receiver and running back, and also own the 1st and 17th pick in round one, as well as two picks in rounds two and three. Currently, I’m debating between Todd Gurley or Amari Cooper at #1, as I think I could use depth at both positions and both make sense. I recently received an interesting offer of the 15th pick in this year’s rookie draft, a 2016 first and either a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2017 for Marshawn Lynch. Is this good value? I’m thinking of doing the deal then taking Gurley at #1 overall, and then probably taking the best two receivers available at 15 and 17. Should I make the trade or stand pat? I’ll add that Lynch counts at 8% of my salary cap.Mike in MA

I’d much rather stand pat. Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch isn’t getting any younger (pardon the cliché), but the odds remain more likely than not that he’ll continue to put forth robust numbers this season, and in future seasons should he keep playing. Continuing, this confluence of events that make him ultra-valuable (it’s a deep, non-PPR league and his contract is incredibly reasonable), and I don’t think a dart throw at pick 1.15 and a future first (which will definitively be made worse by your opponent’s acquisition of Lynch) is enough to make the deal. You’re in good shape right now as is – I’d keep Lynch, take your BPA at 1.01 and let the events unfold as they will.

  1. In the past two seasons of my 12-team PPR league I was the 2014 Champion and 2013 runner-up.  I’m weaker at quarterback and tight end, so my question is should I target Marcus Mariota at 1.12 and Maxx Williams at 2.04 with my first two picks.  How do you feel about this? Should I pickup Maxx at 1.12 instead?  Two teams before my 2.04 are also tight end needy.  If Ameer Abdullah was available at 1.12 he would only be the player I would consider selecting.Mauiguru in HI

While I think pick 1.12 might be a bit early for either Ravens tight end Maxx Williams or Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, it’s certainly not out of the realm of reasonability. To that point, according to DLF’s consensus rookie rankings Williams is currently rated as the 14th best rookie, while Mariota is a little further down at #20 overall. As such, if you wanted to enact this plan, I’d likely flip your original design.

With that said, I’d much rather have Lions running back Ameer Abdullah if he’s available, which of course is far from guaranteed. The fact of the matter is that when you exclude the transcendent talents, quarterbacks and tight ends are inarguably the most replaceable positions. Given that you’re clearly in a win-now window (judging by your past two seasons), I’d much rather attempt to trade the picks for some proven talent if that’s at all possible – this would provide you with a stronger likelihood of continuing to compete, while also ensuring you don’t overspend based on your team needs.

  1. In my 12-man non-PPR league I have been fielding offers for Demaryius Thomas the last couple of weeks, just trying to gauge his value. The first offer was DeAndre Hopkins, John Brown, Tyler Eifert and pick 2.08 for DT, the second offer was Keenan Allen, TY Hilton and pick 1.10 for Thomas, and the third offer was picks 1.07 and 1.09 for Thomas. I’m just trying to rate these offers and see if there were any you would take?Steve in MI

First things first, we can throw the third offer out the window – I’d need, at the minimum, two high-end first rounders to even consider moving Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas, and even then it likely wouldn’t be enough. Moving on…

[inlinead]I consider both of the first two offers to be quite fair. In each case you’d be receiving a second-tier receiver (be it DeAndre Hopkins or TY Hilton), an intriguing young receiver talent with question marks (John Brown or Keenan Allen) and an expensive lottery ticket (Tyler Eifert or rookie pick 1.10). Not only would this help mitigate the immediate damages of losing your likely WR1, it would also bolster your depth at the position and provide you with some additional upside as well.

For my money though, I like the second deal just a bit better. Sure, you wouldn’t be getting Hopkins here (likely the most valuable of all the potential assets), but Hilton isn’t far behind in my book, while I like Allen quite a bit more than Brown. Adding in Eifert, a guy with legitimate top 6-8 potential at the tight end position, and I think it’s a more than reasonable offering. With that said, it’s not as if you have to accept any of these deals – if you’re not feeling it there’s no harm done, and as a “consolation prize” you’d get to continue to hang onto one of the league’s best pass catchers.

  1. I took over a team in a second year dynasty in need of overhaul.  I traded away Demaryius Thomas for a 2016 #1, pick 2.09 and Donte Moncrief. I received an offer for Eddie Lacy to receive picks 1.11 and 2.10, and Isaiah Crowell.  My remaining running backs are Donald Brown, Toby Gerhart, James Starks, Antone Smith, Jaquizz Rodgers, Jonas Gray, Montee Ball and DeAngelo Williams. My picks this year are 2.06, 2.09, 2.12, 3.06, 4.06 and 5.06 before this trade. Next year I have all my picks and the extra #1. Is this enough for E Lacy?Joe in FL

It’s not nearly enough for me, and while we’re at it I think you undersold on Demaryius Thomas as well (see my answers to the question above). Sure, rebuilds require a lot of hard choices, typically involving ridding your roster of proven (or aging) talent in favor of rookie picks and younger players, but there’s no need to accelerate that process in an inorganic manner. Thomas can and should command a King’s ransom in dynasty football, regardless of the status of your roster.

I view Packers running back Eddie Lacy the same way. He’s one of the few young, elite RB1’s in the game, and also a true bell-cow for what is arguably the league’s best offense. He’s finished as the PPR RB8 and RB5 in successive years, and appears to be getting better – given the lack of young talent at the position, there’s no way I’d be selling him for one-third of Cleveland’s three-headed running back monster (Isaiah Crowell) plus two lower tier draft picks.

To me, Lacy is definitively worth the 1.01+, as I would rather have him than any rookie in the 2015 class. If your league-mates aren’t willing to pay that price, so be it – rostering Lacy isn’t going to hurt your rebuild, as I see no reason why you can’t rebuild around him as one of the pillars of your team. You need to be receiving much more than the current offer, and the same goes for any future trades you might make involving top-tier assets.

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eric hardter