Combine Correlations: Wide Receivers

In the second edition of NFL Combine Correlations, we will examine how NFL Combine performance influences fantasy production at the wide receiver position.

Here are my methods:

1. I recorded total fantasy points for the top 36 running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in the 2014 season.
2. For each player (n=108), I recorded their NFL Combine performance in the 40 yard dash, bench press, vertical, broad jump, shuttle and 3 cone drill. I also recorded where they finished in each drill for their specific NFL Combine year.
3. Each drill represents an opportunity to finish first or last. In this way, we can assign a numerical score that reflects their performance relative to other competitors. The best possible score would be “1” in a drill. Likewise, when adding together all six drills, the best possible score would be a “6”.
4. I recorded the total combine score for each player (40 yard dash+Bench+Vertical+Broad Jump+Shuttle+3 Cone Drill=sum total of their combine score).
5. I grouped 36 players at each position into tiers 1, 2 and 3. Tier 1 would be the top performers in the combine drill, tier 2 would be middle-of-the-pack and Tier 3 would be the bottom 12 performers in each drill. I recorded the total fantasy points for each player in 2014, average points per tier and points per games within each tier.
6. I recorded age for each tier, to evaluate whether this could be a confounding variable.
7. I recorded ADP from MFL and dlfstg02.dynastyleaguefootball.com, to represent both re-draft and dynasty perspectives for each tier.

Please note not all drills have 36 scores available as some athletes missed certain drills due to injury or other reasons. Still, there is enough data to evaluate whether combine variables influenced fantasy performance, at least for the 2014 season.

Quick summary of the combine drills:

• 40 yard dash – Measures explosiveness from the starting position and speed.
• Bench press – Technically a test of strength, but more importantly evaluates endurance and dedication to get stronger. If an athlete comes up short, is it time to question their work habits?
• Vertical jump – Tests explosiveness and power in the lower extremities.
• Broad jump – Tests lower body strength and explosiveness.
• 3 cone drill – Change of direction and agility highlight this drill.
• Shuttle run – Shows lateral quickness, explosiveness and change of direction in a small space.

Table 1: Average WR Combine Rank for 2014

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Table 1 separates performers within each combine drill into top, middle and lower tiers. Players in the top tier scored the highest in each drill, whereas players in the lower tier scored the worst. The numerical values in the table represent the average ranking of wide receivers in each tier for the 2014 fantasy season based on total points.

The top tier of wide receivers were the best group in the 40 yard dash and 3 cone drill. Shuttle and vertical were close calls, broad jump was average, and bench press were below average.

It seems the most reliable indicators of success for wide receivers may be results in the 40 yard dash and 3 cone drill, at least when correlating to fantasy production.

Table 2

1. Combine score is the sum rankings of all six drills per player, then averaged together in each tier.
2. Combine scores are inversely proportional to performance in drills (lower numbers are best).

In Table 2, for each player in a tier, I added together all combine drill rankings, then took the average of 12 players within each tier.

The total combine score does not seem to correlate with fantasy production at wide receiver, and this isn’t too surprising, given most athletes are not going to finish at the top of each measurable. When considering how the NFL Combine will influence results of fantasy production, we should take into consideration each individual variable relative to position, not the entirety of the results.

The impact of age is marginal at best. The oldest set of wide receivers had the best total combine score and yet the lowest ADP (MFL data), suggesting there may be value to mine in this group.

Table 3: 40 Yard Dash – WR

In Table 3, we can look at individual fantasy production relative to how each player performed in the 40 yard dash. There does appear to be a significant correlation to fantasy production and performance in the 40 yard dash for wide receivers. The PPG for wide receivers is notably higher in the top tier, relative to the middle and lower tier of athletes with slower 40 yard dash times. Still, tier 3 has Brandon Marshall, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry. Not too shabby for the worst 40 yard dash performers.

Table 4: 3 Cone Drill – WR

Table 4 shows a positive correlation with 3 cone drill results and fantasy production for wide receivers, although the difference between tiers is not substantial. The lowest tier of wide receivers in this drill still managed 15 PPG, only 1 PPG difference between the top performers in the 3 cone drill.

Table 5: Shuttle – WR

In Table 5, as with the 40 yard dash, there appears to be a separation between the top tier and bottom tier in PPG, indicating shuttle performance may correlate to fantasy production for wide receivers. Still, the difference is only 2 PPG, a modest advantage. Take a look at the names of wide receivers who didn’t fair as well in the shuttle. Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Dez Bryant, Marques Colston, DeAndre Hopkins and Jarvis Landry all finished in tier 3 of the shuttle drill. Would anyone eschew these players from their dynasty teams for finishing in tier 3 of the shuttle? I don’t think so.

Table 6: Broad Jump – WR

Table  6 seems to suggest that broad jump results are not important for fantasy production with wide receivers. Expected PPG is nearly identical across all tiers, and it seems we don’t need to focus on broad jump when predicting fantasy production or value of our dynasty wide receivers.

Table 7: Vertical – WR

Table 7 shows a slight advantage for vertical results at the wide receiver position. The PPG difference is marginal but it does seem tier 1 performers are slightly more productive fantasy producers. Still, there are examples of solid fantasy producers in tier 3, such as Golden Tate, Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Jarvis Landry and Kelvin Benjamin, so a poor vertical score isn’t a death sentence for a wide receiver in fantasy football.

Table 8: Bench – WR

Table 8 shows no correlation of bench press performance with fantasy production at wide receiver. It seems that bench press results are not a concern in predicting fantasy production for wide receivers, so it shouldn’t be a priority for us when evaluating our dynasty assets at this position.

Table 9: Biggest Surprises – WR

The main point of Table 9 is to show that some of the very best NFL and fantasy players don’t have impressive results at the NFL Combine. Antonio Brown had a poor performance, with only one top 10 finish (shuttle). Dez Bryant had poor performances in the 40 yard dash, bench press, 3 cone drill and shuttle. Randall Cobb had a respectable 40 yard dash time but otherwise had a decidedly unimpressive NFL Combine. Jarvis Landry had a terrible performance. Mike Evans was not impressive.

Taking a look at 2014 rankings, all but one, Landry, finished in the top 15, with five finishing as top 12 wide receivers. Great things are predicted for Landry in PPR leagues for 2015, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished as a WR2 this season.

Conclusions

1. There is a small but noticeable influence on fantasy production at wide receiver when all combine scores are considered.
2. 40 yard dash, 3 cone drill and shuttle results have the best correlation to fantasy production for wide receivers, but the difference in PPG is very low, about 1-2 PPG.
3. There are many examples of premium dynasty assets that performed at an elite level and yet fared average or worse at the NFL Combine.
4. Based on these results, I have to conclude that NFL Combine results may influence fantasy production at wide receiver, but it is a very weak correlation and questionable whether it truly impacts the success of a fantasy season. It certainly doesn’t correlate to dynasty value, given players like Bryant, Brown, Hopkins, Cobb, and Evans are all elite dynasty assets, yet all fared average or worse at the NFL Combine.
5. The lesson to be learned is not to dismiss a player who fares poorly at the NFL Combine, and to avoid becoming excessively reliant on NFL Combine performance when building a dynasty team.

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Scott Peak

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