Rookie Player Profile: Tevin Coleman

Russell Clay

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Combine Review

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  • Height :5’11”
  • Weight: 206
  • Hands: 8 5/8
  • Arm Length: 32
  • 40 Yard Dash: 4.39

Strengths

Much has been debated about Coleman’s ability. A lot of folks view him as a ‘one trick pony’ with limited flexibility, and weirdly, I won’t disagree. Coleman certainly isn’t flexible, and he hasn’t shown the elite tackle breaking ability most believe a feature back would need. Notice how this is the strengths sections and I’ve focused on the negatives so far, I needed a little set up before I lay down the positive hammer. Don’t miss the forest through the trees, Coleman has a special ability, and special abilities are what wins at the professional level. The speed is what sets him apart and while players with similar abilities have failed in the past (*cough* Darren McFadden *cough*), that doesn’t mean players like that don’t work in the NFL. He’s a ‘one cut and go’ type player and will win in that area at the next level. Also, production at a below average college should be taken into account. Coleman’s 2014 season will go down as one of the best in college football history.

Weaknesses

Coleman has stiff hips and isn’t as elusive as you’d like him to be. I don’t think his vision is as bad as others think, but it certainly isn’t a strength either. One interesting thing to note is why Coleman dropped in the draft. It was revealed after the draft that teams had concerns about him having a sickle cell trait(not actually sickle cell) so that is definitely a factor to be aware of.

Opportunity

Coleman was drafted to one of the most RB-needy teams in the league. While Devonta Freeman was drafted the previous season, he was only a fourth round selection and hasn’t done anything to emerge thus far, so it’s doubtful he has much leverage in terms of touches. We still have to wait for training camp to come and go before we actually know what Coleman’s role will be this year, and we may even need to wait for preseason to fully decide how things will shake out. Based on my evaluation of the players on the depth chart, and when they drafted him, I expect Coleman to be the starter week one and I expect his role to grow as the season goes on.

Threats

I suppose you could consider Devonta Freeman a ‘threat’ to take touches away. Freeman now has a year of experience over Coleman, and will probably be much more comfortable with the NFL atmosphere, at least early on in the preseason, which is where a lot of roles are decided.

Short Term Expectations

Much like Jeremy Hill last year, I expect Coleman to get 1,000 yards rushing in his rookie season. The difference being that Hill had a really good player to beat out for touches, Coleman doesn’t. If you believe in Freeman, we’re probably going to disagree here, but I see Coleman seizing the feature back role in the preseason and never looking back. I could see 250-275 carries in 2015.

Long Term Expectations

Coleman will be the Falcons feature back for at least the next five years. (*Blush* My bias is showing). Julio Jones and Matt Ryan aren’t going anywhere, so rushing yards and red-zone opportunities will never be hard to come by. The last running back with real ability (I love you Steven Jackson, so I’m sorry) was Michael Turner and he was a very successful statistically in his time in Atlanta.

Rookie Draft Advice

I would be comfortable starting to look at picking Coleman around 1.08 in your rookie draft, but most likely you wouldn’t have to take him before 1.10. He’s still ‘easy’ to get considering price, so if you’re willing to make a few moves in your draft, it’s very likely you could grab him in the late first round range.

NFL Comparison

Darren McFadden

Being a ‘one cut and go’ runner shouldn’t be perceived as a bad thing, yet it has been. Being compared to Darren McFadden shouldn’t be perceived as a bad thing, yet it has been as well. Coleman is the real deal. If Injuries derail his career, so be it, but the ability is clear. The college statistics are prolific. The athletic profile is prolific. Hopefully things fall in line better than they did for McFadden.

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