Introducing 2QB Rankings

Eric Breeze Posted On June 17, 2015

rodgers

Last week, we unveiled a 2QB Dynasty Top 100 on DLF. Here, Eric Breeze and I expand on the strategy in these types of leagues, and how to use/interpret our rankings.

The Strategy

Eric

In standard fantasy football leagues, quarterback is the most overlooked position in the entire league by experienced owners. The elite pass throwers such Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are valued because they offer significant weekly advantages, but the ones who produce average fantasy points usually fall in startup drafts and pull less in trade offers than other positions. Some may ask why the most important position in football is overlooked in fantasy and the simple answer is that supply is greater than demand. In standard scoring, the difference between the QB6 and QB14 in points per game in 2014 was less than two, but the difference between an elite RB/WR with a low RB3/WR3 was roughly 12 points.

[inlinead]With 2QB leagues, 20-24 quarterbacks need to be started every week among all teams. Quarterback is also not a position where there can be multiple fantasy relevant players on each team. There are only 32 teams in the NFL and a handful of those have quarterback situations you wouldn’t want to touch with a 10 ft pole. So, quarterback goes from a position of surplus in standard leagues to one of scarcity in 2QB leagues. Wide receivers rule the standard dynasty format because they typically have longer careers than running backs however in 2QB leagues, quarterbacks rule supreme for this very reason as well. Age is not nearly as important to quarterbacks as other positions since some of the best play till their late thirties. While the number 30 is a dynasty value death sentence for skill players, it’s only the beginning for the NFL’s best gunslingers.

My strategy is do whatever you can to acquire young (31 and younger) stud quarterbacks. The NFL is in a transition period where there will soon be a passing of the guard. In the next 1-3 years, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees will all be hanging up their cleats. A few years after, there is another group of players who will be filling out their retirement papers, too. What does this mean for 2QB strategy – it means if you have a proven quarterback with 5+ years left as an NFL starter squeeze them tightly and don’t ever think of letting go. If you have the chance to acquire a franchise signal caller ,I would strongly advise you to do it. Quarterbacks are going to be extremely expensive in 2QB leagues, however, constantly trading assets for short term solutions and using high first round rookie picks on players who have extremely high bust rates adds up to be expensive, too.

James

My first foray into the fantasy writing world was a piece for DLF entitled “2QB Leagues: Where Quarterbacks Rule.” I looked at the advantage of having two high-scoring quarterbacks (versus every other position), the effectiveness of different combinations at the position and how early quarterbacks went in last year’s drafts based on 2QB ADP (12 in the first three rounds, and 24 in the first eight). TL; DR version: quarterbacks are essential, help you win way more than in a 1QB league, and will be snapped up extremely early in your drafts.

If you own a couple of studs or multiple starters, you hold all the cards. If you are struggling to find quarterbacks to start each week, you will be on the outside looking in. It is extremely important to attack the position – I would prefer to ‘reach’ for a quarterback who is almost guaranteed to give you a chance at QB1 weekly finishes for the next few years and build the rest of my team around them, than be forced to reach for someone I am unsure about later. If you wait too long, it can be catastrophic.

However, like any position, it is not about spending the most on the players. Instead, we are looking for value and players who will over-perform. For example, when I posed a question to Twitter on winning 2QB combinations for 2014, Russell Wilson was the player who came up the most. His top-six production was bought prior to the season for a relatively cheap price, and getting him later allowed drafters to address other positions. Filling your roster with multiple starting quarterbacks who may hit a big season can be extremely effective.

The Rankings

Eric

[inlinead]I cannot stress how important tiers are for my rankings. I also wish I could put an entire blank page after Aaron Rodgers and before tier 3. Andrew Luck and Rodgers are literally untradeable in 2QB leagues. It’s not a hyperbole when I say I would need six first round rookie picks to even consider trading either of these players. It would more than likely take eight 1sts of value for me to part with either. I know, that sounds like lunacy but even a middling quarterback with an unsure future is worth one or more first round picks in this format. I tried my best to rearrange how I value players in the same tier but depending on how the draft goes, all the players in the same tier are interchangeable. If I was sitting in at the 1.4 in a startup and Luck, Rodgers and Russell Wilson were the first three players taken, I would be hard pressed to not take Matt Ryan with my pick. Also keep in mind that quarterbacks in 2QB leagues are usually the cheapest they will ever be during the startup draft, so I would not advise fading them with intent to trade for one later. Quarterbacks are the short and long term cornerstone of a team in this format, so even if a team is rebuilding, it will be extremely difficult to pry away a signal caller without mortgaging your dynasty team’s future.

James

These rankings are built on, “If I was building a 2QB team from scratch, who would I take?” The players are ordered by who I like more, but I may take a player who is a little lower in the same tier based on the roster. There should be no hesitation at all in bumping up quarterbacks when they are needed (and they are always needed). As Breeze mentioned above, quarterbacks are at their cheapest during the draft and are almost impossible to pry away from owners through trades, and if you have a great one, you hold on dearly.

Rankings are so fluid that putting specific orders in which you see players is extremely difficult to do, so the tiers are important. I keep things simple – there are players who I think will perform, players who I am indifferent on and players who I think will disappoint. If I can build a team of players I like and expect to produce, I’ll be happy. Where each one of them is drafted comes down to ‘reading the room.’ With a quarterback I believe will succeed, I will take them as early as I need to or ‘overpay’ because of just how valuable they can be. I also believe strongly that your rankings are your own. I have Mike Evans lower than the consensus, but that will only affect my own ability to get him in any draft or trade. I also don’t have Darren McFadden in my top 100, but if you believe he will easily replace DeMarco Murray’s production, then a reach based on my rankings will be a value pick based on yours.

Finally, my draft strategy is to print out ADP data, full dynasty rankings and rankings by position every time I draft, and cross players off every list when they are drafted. I also have a copy of re-draft rankings alongside these, to make sure I am ‘bridging the gap’ between projection and production. Not only do the lists make things more clear, they also allow me to better visualise where the drop-offs in tiers/quality will be.

We hope these rankings can help you succeed!

Click here (https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/dynasty-2qb-top-100-rankings/) to view the rankings and follow James and Eric on Twitter: @JS_Football and @BreezeIDP

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