The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- We had a vacancy in our league when this year’s draft rolled around and an owner, who already has questionable morals, brings in a new guy to fill the vacancy. We all agreed and welcomed the new owner even though nobody else knew him. Within a week the new owner made a trade with the owner that brought him in. The new owner gave up Mike Evans, Eddie Lacy and Tony Romo. In return, the owner who brought him in received DeMarco Murray, Davante Adams, Jay Cutler, and the Philly D. I view this as an incredibly lopsided trade. Am I being too salty about this or am I justified in my concern? – Ben in NC
It’s certainly not a good trade, as in my opinion Mike Evans and Eddie Lacy are the two most valuable players in the deal by a decent margin. Don’t get me wrong, DeMarco Murray and Davante Adams certainly move the needle, but the owners who would rank them above their positional peers on the other side of the ledger are undoubtedly few and far between. Getting the upgrade from Smokin’ Jay Cutler to Tony Romo is just adding the cherry on top.
But with that said, I think it’s a bit early to start throwing conspiracy theories around – perhaps the new guy doesn’t quite understand player valuation in a dynasty setting, is more comfortable trading with his buddy right off the bat, or he simply doesn’t like the guys with whom he parted. Again, the majority of us would likely take the Evans/Lacy side every time, but differing individual opinions are what make this hobby of ours great. I’d keep your eyes peeled for more evidence of collusion (constant vigilance, as Mad-Eye Moody would say), but for now I’d just chalk it up to another bad dynasty trade.
- I play in a dynasty format where you call your 10 keepers for the 2016 season before the 2015 season starts, and want to know if I should offer Jordy Nelson and Arian Foster for picks 1.01 and the 3.01. Odell Beckham wasn’t named a keeper last year so he is still on the board. Otherwise I don’t pick until 3.04. – Chris in IN
I’d absolutely make this deal. Giants sophomore receiver Odell Beckham is considered the top dynasty asset by some, and is significantly more valuable than anyone you’d be selecting if this were just a typical rookie draft. I like Jordy Nelson more than most, but Beckham is eight years his junior, and arguably just as good. Adding Texans running back and perpetual injury risk Arian Foster to the mix is immaterial to me – if you can pull this off, I’d love it for your team.
- I adopted a clunker and turned it into a playoff team last year and Tre Mason played a large part in my second half comeback. I own pick 1.05 in our draft this year, so should I attempt to trade Marshawn Lynch to move up to 1.01 for Todd Gurley, or sit on my 1.05 and try to offer up Mason to whichever team drafts Gurley for an early second round pick? – Mike in NJ
I think I’d prefer the second course of action if you can pull it off. Unless I’m misreading your intentions, I think shipping off 1.05 plus Seahawks stud ball carrier Marshawn Lynch to move up to the first pick in the draft is overkill – I like incoming freshman Todd Gurley a lot, but the truth remains there are simply no guarantees when it comes to rookies. I certainly don’t believe Gurley will bust, but I also don’t think there’s any chance he comes close to outscoring Lynch over the next two seasons. You’ll still be able to get a tier-1b player at 1.05 if you just stand pat, plus whatever you can get in return for Rams runner Tre Mason (I personally believe an early second rounder is somewhat optimistic, but you never truly know if you don’t try). That would leave you with a much-improved team without having to sell the farm due to Rookie Fever.
- After some careful maneuvering I have acquired picks 1.02, 1.07 and 1.11. My main headache is who to pick at the 1.02. I know Todd Gurley is rated first overall and Amari Cooper is close behind him, so I’m wondering if I should do the smart thing and draft BPA, or go for need? My running backs are lacking, so should I take Melvin Gordon over Cooper if Gurley goes first? – Stephen in TN
[inlinead]I think you should stay the course with your player rankings and take Raiders receiver Amari Cooper if he’s available. To me he’s the best receiver available this year, and he and Gurley are each about a half-tier above the next grouping of Melvin Gordon, Kevin White and DeVante Parker. No, he might not fit your need, but I firmly believe the main focus of a rookie draft is to add as much value as possible to your roster – selecting Cooper will achieve that goal. Besides, pick 1.07 should still yield you a good ball carrier should you so desire (there’s a good chance TJ Yeldon will be available there), and you could always couple 1.07 and 1.11 to move up a few spots and nab Gordon a little earlier. Regardless, you clearly have options other than eschewing the draft’s top pass catcher.
- Last year my team (16-team PPR league with 12 keepers) just missed the playoffs and gave me the 10th pick in this year’s draft. After reading an article on here about Maxx Williams I’ve started considering him with the pick, but my concern is if he’s worth 10th overall? I only have Heath Miller right now, and I know Williams won’t be there for my second pick (26th overall). What are your thoughts? – Shay in IN
I think you need to take the context of the position into consideration here. Yes, having a player like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas or Greg Olsen would provide you with a nice weekly advantage, but moving down the list we see that the waters are muddied with middling talent. To that point, when looking at points per game (PPG) for qualifying players (sorry, Dennis Pitta) we can see there was only a difference of 2.4 PPG between 2015’s PPR TE8 (Travis Kelce) and the TE16 (Zach Ertz). In other words, unless you believe Baltimore rookie Maxx Williams has the potential to transcend the mid-range TE1 status, I don’t believe you’d be maximizing (pun intended) your draft capital. Ultimately I’d rather side with the best of the running backs or receivers available here, but if you really believe in Williams’ upside, it’s not a terrible reach.
- After trading for Alshon Jeffery I now have Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Jeffery, Davante Adams and Terrance Williams at receiver. I’m weaker at running back with Joique Bell, Isaiah Crowell, Doug Martin, Joseph Randle and Reggie Bush. With the 1.04 pick in this year’s rookie draft, would you suggest I take whoever falls to me from the top-four ranked rookies, even if it’s Kevin White, or would you trade down? Assuming I am unable to trade down, what would you do? Keep in mind that I can play three receivers and one running back each week. – GD in Ontario
As I mentioned in question four above, I believe the rookie draft is this time to accrue value. Of course, value remains subjective, and if you believe Kevin White wouldn’t add much to your roster at pick 1.04 (assuming Melvin Gordon is already off the board), then I absolutely think you should attempt to trade out of the pick. Even if you move down only a few spots you’ll have the chance to select a runner like Ameer Abdullah or TJ Yeldon, while also likely picking up a second round pick in the process. If you can’t trade down I think I’d just bite the bullet and take White, or Miami’s DeVante Parker if you prefer him instead. Sure, either rookie would have trouble cracking your crowded depth chart, but both should serve as viable trade chips for the future.
- I was offered pick 1.07 and Ben Roethlisberger for Andrew Luck. I’m coming off a championship season and currently own picks 1.06 and 1.09. I don’t have any pressing needs, but considering that my draft will go running back heavy and I can get the two of the top four receivers at 1.06 and 1.07 is it worth it? – Jeremy in FL
Not even close.
Now I’m not going to belittle Ben Roethlisberger’s sterling 2014 campaign, but the fact is he threw for 600 more yards than in any other season, while matching his career best in touchdowns. Prior to his “age-32 breakout,” Big Ben had been a perennial low-end QB1, largely because he wasn’t producing six-touchdown games like they were old hat. Which Ben are you banking on for the future?
As nearly any reader of the Mailbag will attest, I’ll nearly always lean towards the “non-quarterback” side of any proposed deal, as I simply don’t place a huge emphasis on the position. But according to the masses, Andrew Luck is worth the 1.01+ in terms of draft picks, so the proposed deal simply doesn’t come close. You already won it last year, and I’m guessing Luck was a huge part of that – I don’t see any reason to mess with the system that worked.
- This is the second year of my dynasty league and I am going in as the defending champ. I was able to acquire pick 1.02 via trade, and was wondering who I should take there, and then also who I should try and target with pick 1.12? I’m weaker at running back than I am at wide receiver. – Carmello in Alberta
[inlinead]It’s becoming plenty evident that the theme of this week’s Mailbag is “Rookie Draft Value” – as in, don’t ignore it! Now again, we all have differing opinions on which players comprise the top tier of the 2015 rookie draft, but as I mentioned earlier I have Gurley and Cooper just a hair above the rest. So for me, when it comes time to pick at 1.02, you simply take whoever is available of the two, or you trade down a few picks and accumulate some value later on in the draft.
Pick 1.12 is a bit trickier, as it will largely depend upon what your league mates do. It’s at this point in the draft that if you need to shift somewhat towards drafting for need, it becomes acceptable given the lesser likelihood of your picks achieving stardom. Locking up a player such as Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman or Jay Ajayi (perhaps a slight reach here) would help supplement your weakest position without giving up obvious value, and as such would be my advised course of action.
- My 8-team IDP Dynasty league is entering its seventh year. As all the managers have gotten more and more savvy, I have found that it is harder and harder to complete trades. I have been trying to use ADP more to evaluate the fairness of trades that I send and receive. Could you talk about how you use ADP to evaluate a trade? For example, I was just offered Eric Ebron (ADP = 88) and Mike Wallace (ADP = 76) for Mark Ingram (ADP = 53). Do you have a formula for evaluating the fairness of this trade? – Face Smashers in MI
It’s my belief the DLF ADP data, courtesy of Ryan McDowell, is some of the most important content we provide. But with that said, it is not, and will never be a trade bible. The reasoning is simple – the ADP data is derived from (mock) owners attempting to build a team from the ground up in a start-up scenario, which can lead to a dramatically different player valuation viewpoint when compared to trading.
With trades, a much larger level of importance is placed on respective team need, and personal opinion carries significant weight – remember, while ADP is a useful barometer, it is the amalgamation of the opinions of multiple (mock) drafters, whereas trading relies simply on the beliefs of two owners. So while the ADP can help glean the opinions of the masses, it will never be a direct reflection of one person’s valuations. So to answer your question, I would definitely utilize the ADP data to gauge a general level of value, but ultimately trading is going to come down to the whims of a much narrower set of viewpoints, and might not be reflective of conventional wisdom. Simply put, try to do what makes sense for your team, and hope your trade partner’s beliefs align with your own.
- What’s the value of a first round pick in a startup? I’ve been getting some offers and am having trouble placing the value on the pick. Is a second, third, and fourth round pick enough? Or in terms of player ADP, is something like Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, and Martavis Bryant enough for Julio Jones? I feel like I’d rather have the Julio Jones side. – Sam in MN
If we’re talking about a player like Falcons receiver Julio Jones, there’s a strong likelihood we’re talking about an early first round pick. But even if it was pick 1.01, I’d have an extremely hard time turning down a combination of second, third and fourth round picks! If you accepted that trade you’d be able to draft a whopping seven players in the draft’s first four rounds, placing you at a huge advantage relative to your peers. No, you wouldn’t have the ability to draft a consensus “stud,” but it’s not even as if that works out all the time regardless (cue to owners of Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and Josh Gordon nodding vigorously). If you have that offer on the table, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
- I’ve had a lot of interest in Ameer Abdullah recently, and could possibly trade him straight up for Keenan Allen. I was wondering your thoughts on this since I like Abdullah, and my roster is largely full of aging running backs. Would you make this deal? – Michael in NC
No, Chargers then-sophomore receiver Keenan Allen wasn’t good last year – far from it, in fact. With that said, as bad as he was in 2014 he was just as good as a rookie the year prior, and yet he’s still seen his ADP drop 20 spots from May of 2014 to just last month. I can understand it to an extent, and believe it might actually have less to do with Allen himself, and more to do with last season’s bumper crop of rookies, but the fact remains Allen dropped like a stone in a hurry.
For my part, I remain convinced the player we saw as a rookie is much closer to the player we’ll see in 2015 and beyond. As such I expect a fully healthy Allen (he fought through nagging injuries last year) to continue to assert himself as quarterback Philip Rivers’ top receiver, being more efficient with his robust market share of targets (he had at least eight targets in seven of his final eight games) and likely scoring the ball more as well. I have him comfortably over Abdullah in my rankings, and would make this trade regardless of the ages of your other ball carriers – you can always get younger in other ways, but, to me, Allen is the far superior dynasty asset here.
- I just gave Brandin Cooks and Jaelen Strong for Tom Brady and TJ Yeldon, plus 2016 first and second round picks and the right to swap third round picks. Without listing my whole team I needed a quarterback, and also have more strength at receiver when compared to running back. Thoughts? – Mike in NY
As challenging as it seems to be in today’s current state of “lightning rod” player evaluation, I’m actually still sitting squarely on the fence when it comes to Saints receiver Brandin Cooks. I thought he showed fairly well as a rookie, as head coach Sean Payton clearly went out of his way to scheme the ball into Cooks’ hands (seven targets per game), where he responded by converting the vast majority of his looks into receptions (albeit of the Tavon Austin, line of scrimmage variety). I wished he would’ve done a bit more downfield, but all told it was a relatively successful, albeit injury-shortened rookie season.
What I don’t understand, however, is how the pint-sized pass catcher somehow morphed into a second round pick in startup drafts simply because New Orleans jettisoned his competition. Yes, there will now be plenty of targets of for grabs due to the losses of Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, but this also means opposing defenses are going to challenge the Saints in dramatically different ways. With only Cooks and the partially fossilized Marques Colston remaining as the go-to guys, it will become imperative for the sophomore to diversify his route tree and prove an ability to beat double and bracket coverage at the professional level.
Is it possible for Cooks to accomplish this? Sure. But have we seen it yet? Absolutely not. Projection remains a large part of what we do in dynasty football, and while I’m not saying Cooks will fizzle out in the same manner, this is beginning to remind me a bit of the skyrocketing values of Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter only one year ago. In other words, if you acquired the player in question when he was cheaper, bully for you – but there now remains essentially no margin of error for failure at the current cost.
So ultimately I can understand selling Cooks right now, given the stratospheric levels his value has reached. I’m not certain you got your money’s worth, as while I like Tom Brady and TJ Yeldon, one is a soon-to-be 38-year old quarterback and the other remains completely unproven between the white lines of an NFL field. Likely it will come down to what you make of those 2016 rookies picks, be it with the players you select or acquire via trade. So as much as I understand your logic behind the deal, I’m going to have to end this answer where I started it – sitting on that same fantasy fence.
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