Rookie Player Profile: Jay Ajayi

Jacob Feldman

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Combine Review              

Height – 6’0”
Weight – 221 pounds
Hands – 10”
Arm Length – 32”
40 Yard Dash – 4.57 seconds
3 Cone Drill – 7.10 seconds
20 Yard Shuttle – 4.10 seconds
Vertical Jump – 39”
Broad Jump – 121”

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Video Clips

Strengths

  • Complete skill set with the size to be a bell cow rusher
  • Great feet for a rusher his size and is able to change directions and accelerate faster than most other running backs.
  • Runs behind his pads and has enough power to knock smaller defenders over or push the pile
  • Better in the passing game than most rookie running backs
  • Nice balance to help him keep going through arm tackles or weaker hits
  • Highly productive in college both as a rusher and as a receiver

Weaknesses          

  • Questionable vision and instincts at times. Sometimes ran into the backs of his blockers or right into a defender he should have been able to avoid
  • Speed could be an issue in the NFL. Might struggle getting to the edge against NFL defenders. Will get caught from behind.
  • Ball security needs to be improved
  • Character red flags after he was caught shoplifting as a freshman
  • Major injury concerns about his knee. ACL tear in 2011, possible bone on bone condition.

Overall Skill Set

Prior to the draft and prior to reports of the bone on bone condition in his knee, Ajayi was in the mix to be the third running back off the board in a lot of fantasy leagues as well as the NFL. While he isn’t exceptional in any one category, he does possess a complete skill set which could make him a three down running back. He has the size to be used between the tackles, agility to make defenders miss, power to run them over and the passing game skills to play all three downs. He was expected to come into the NFL as a starter and someone who can stay on the field for a majority of the snaps. He’s a bit of a “jack of all trades, master of none” kind of player.

Even prior to the reports of the injury, there were definitely a few red flags. In addition to the character concerns off the field, on the field he had some struggles with ball security and I question his vision. If you watch him play, there were more than a few times where he ran into his own blockers or ran directly into a defender he should have seen coming to make the tackle. The reports of the bone on bone condition were enough to drop him all the way into the fifth round of the NFL draft. Even more concerning is that several teams said they didn’t move him on their board due to the injury. That means they had him that late on their board in the first place. If you look back at the last few years, there aren’t very many starting rushers who come from the fifth round or later. It is going to be interesting to see what happens!

Opportunities

Ajayi will come into camp already second on the depth chart due to a severe lack of talent at the position in Miami behind Lamar Miller. The Dolphins don’t view Miller as a 20 carry a game running back. Even when Daniel Thomas was next in line, the Dolphins still tried to keep Miller around 15 carries a game. Even as the number two guy in the pecking order, he should still be involved. The best news is Miller’s contract status. Miller is entering the last year of his rookie deal and the current expectation is the Dolphins will let him walk if Ajayi can show much of anything.

Threats

I think Miller is the more talented and complete running back of the two. I believe the fantasy community as a whole has a bias perspective on Miller after he broke so many hearts in 2013. With Miller being the more talented rusher, I expect Ajayi to be the backup all season long. The biggest threat to Ajayi’s value is if Miller shows really well this season and the Dolphins do decide to sign him to a contract extension. If that happens, Ajayi could be a career backup.

Short-term Expectations

I’m expecting Ajayi to get about 25 percent of the snaps at running back this year and to be able to turn that into 8-10 touches a game – that won’t be enough to start him at running back in most leagues, but it will give us and the Dolphins a glimpse of what he can do. If Miller gets nicked up and goes down with an injury, Ajayi could step in as the starter and become a solid RB2 in fantasy leagues.

Long-term Expectations

Looking past this season, Ajayi’s value hinges upon two things. The first is if the Dolphins do let Miller go in free agency. If they do, it is a definite plus for Ajayi’s value as he’ll be a cheap option at running back for the next several years for the Dolphins. The second will be the health of his knee. If the bone on bone condition is in fact true, it could result in microfracture surgery and a very short career for him. Then again, most running backs only last a handful of years anyway. So if Miller leaves and you get three years of Ajayi, you should be very pleased.

NFL Comparison

I’ve heard a few different comparisons for Ajayi. Marshawn Lynch has been mentioned by a few people, but I don’t really see it. Maybe the Buffalo Bills version of Lynch because of the complete skill set, power, and balance but not the superstar we see in Seattle right now. The comparison I like a little bit more is when I hear people talking about him as a Stevan Ridley with some fumbling issues.

Projected Range for a Rookie Draft

Ajayi is a bit of a wild card in fantasy drafts. There are still some people who are firm believers and might go after him in the late first round no matter what happened in the NFL draft. I’ve also seen him slide all the way into the late second round of 12 team drafts. He has one of the widest ranges of any player in this draft. Personally, I would start thinking about him in the middle of the second round. There is a lot of risk giving his injury history and Miller being in town for at least this year, but the upside as a solid RB2 for a few years is definitely there.

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jacob feldman