Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I walk through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
There has been a lot of talk around the role of new Bills running back LeSean McCoy and what his expectations are for 2015. Adam Levitan pointed out what most are assuming in terms of usage tweeting,
NYJ rank in team rush attempts under Rex: 4th, 5th, 6th, 16th, 2nd, 1st. Has another QB mess to hide in BUF. McCoy a lock for 300+ carries.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) May 18, 2015
Even Fred Jackson has said he expects McCoy to garner the lion’s share of touches. Usage is a key component in terms of fantasy success and amassing 300 – 350 touches goes a long way towards being an elite option. Of course last season LeSean garnered 340 total touches and finished outside of the top 10 at the running back position in standard leagues and even worse in PPR formats. Sigmund Bloom offered his opinion on McCoy stating,
FF world still in denial about just how poor LeSean McCoy played last year. Asiata, FJax, Bernard higher PPR PPG. What’s gonna change?
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) May 22, 2015
So what will change?
[inlinead]The Eagles combination of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez at quarterback was definitely a better situation than what Buffalo is dealing with today (you know you have problems when you are still longing for Kyle Orton to give it one more year). Chip Kelly’s offense also was able to take a lot more pressure off of the running back with the up-tempo, quick hitting approach. Finally the offensive line in Buffalo was one of the worst last year compared to the unit McCoy got to run behind. The Bills do have new coaches and a scheme that will be looking to utilize the fullback position to help with the running game in 2015. The problem is defenders will not be fearful of the passing game and key in on McCoy and exploit the line’s weaknesses. LeSean also scored only five touchdowns with the high scoring Eagles last season and opportunities to cross the goal line will be less plentiful in Buffalo. At this point, I would bet against a top ten finish at the running back position in 2015 and even beyond. McCoy will be 27 entering this season and with another heavy workload sure to come investing in him long term will likely not pay dividends.
Joseph Randle, RB DAL
Another highly debated running back this off-season has been Dallas’ Joseph Randle. The Cowboys brought in Darren McFadden and early consensus from the casual fantasy fans was that despite McFadden’s horrible showing in Oakland he was the running back to possess. I even chimed in a couple weeks back a little confused by early ADP data.
Early redraft ADP from FFC has McFadden being drafted as 24th RB and Randle as 45th. Give me Randle all day
— FFGator (@FFGator) May 14, 2015
Of course since OTAs have started the tone has changed quickly as Brad Evans and John Paulsen highlighted.
Joseph Randle’s stock soaring after ‘meaty’ comments and controlling first-team reps at OTAs. Where does ADP peak? My guess: mid-40s.
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) May 28, 2015
Almost there, Joseph Randle. pic.twitter.com/FBVVq0Z2py
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) June 2, 2015
From what I can gather, the general thought in regards to Cowboys running backs is that whoever is running behind their offensive line is going to be a top 10 option. Even Randle thought former teammate DeMarco Murray left “a lot of meat on the bone” breaking records for the Cowboys last season. While only garnering a few touches in 2014, Randle averaged 6.7 yards per carry. Stats can be misleading though as both Pat Thorman and Jake Ciely posted,
Common argument for Joe “Meat On The Bone” Randle is his 6.7 YPC (51 for 344 & 3 TD). Full 2 YPC better than DeMarco. It’s a fraud stat.
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) May 28, 2015
Sure it’s been said before, but at risk of repeating someone, it’s worth it! Joseph Randle’s games w/ <10 carries, 7.54 YPC, when >10, 2.54!
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) June 3, 2015
Pat went on to detail three of Randle’s 51 runs that came in “garbage time” and all went for long touchdowns. The one thing I can agree with when using stats is if you are going to point out Joseph’s 6.7 yards per carry in 2014 on 51 totes, then you also need to bring up his 3.0 yards per carry in 2013 on 54 carries. His longest run in ’13 was also only 19 yards compared to defense gouging scampers he accumulated last season. Overall I do believe Randle will be the starter for the Cowboys week one and could post decent numbers in that offense. That being said, if I own Randle in my leagues, I will be looking to shop him to the guy that believes he is going to be an elite weapon prior to the first whistle.
Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN
Most of the fantasy community was focused on the return of Adrian Peterson to the Vikings OTAs this week. Many were already proclaiming AP to be a surefire top three fantasy back this season if not the number one overall. Peterson for sure has been a rare talent in football and to bet against him has normally been a mistake. But what about the players on the depth chart behind him? Matt Asiata was amazing at falling into the end zone in 2014, but no one is really counting on him becoming fantasy relevant again in the immediate or distant future. McKinnon, however, is someone to monitor. His 2015 season is all but writen off with the return of Peterson barring an “All Day” injury, but beyond that he makes an interesting case. Both Rich Hribar and Karl Safchick echoed this sentiment tweeting,
Still willing to nibble on McKinnon from anyone selling. Peterson due $15M with no dead cap hit in ’16 and even cyborgs eventually decline.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) June 2, 2015
McKinnon would be a great dynasty buy even at his May ADP of 85 (RB28), but the Adrian Peterson news could drop his trade value. Take a look.
— Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick) June 2, 2015
As Rich noted, Peterson is not guaranteed any money beyond this season and if the Vikings decide to run him into the ground and then move on, McKinnon is likely going to be lead dog. Even if AP makes it through all 16 games and the Vikings decide to pay that man his money, Graham Barfield shared a quick hitter on Peterson’s touch count and age that normally work against running backs.
There is some revisionist history when dialing up Peterson as a sure-fire top-3 FF RB. Consistent, but 2,279 career touches + 30-years-old.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) June 2, 2015
Fantasy owners can be quick to react and think irrationally at the first sign of bad news so looking to grab onto McKinnon now for a potential one year stash could provide solid returns next season.
C.J. Spiller, RB NO
One running back whose value is sure to trend upward throughout the off-season is New Orleans’ C.J. Spiller. Both Evan Silva and Adam Levitan of Rotoworld commented on recent news around Saints camp and what owners may be able to expect in ’15.
In this item, a #Saints beat writer predicts C.J. Spiller will lead the NO backfield in touches: http://t.co/9tBi2r6mjZ
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) June 3, 2015
Darren Sproles averaged 5.2 receptions & 4.2 rushes per game in three years as a Saint. CJ Spiller should top that: http://t.co/1uIWYQ94Tw
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) May 31, 2015
Mark Ingram was not re-signed simply to be the backup, but it also is sounding unlikely he will be an every down back even though he showed the ability to succeed in the role at times last season. Assuming Spiller receives around 40% of the carries while adding four receptions per game he could easily flirt with around 1,200 total yards. Ingram will still be the goal line back and Saints running backs only caught two touchdowns last year so scoring opportunities will likely be limited. But in PPR leagues Spiller could easily perform as a weekly RB2.
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
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