Rookie Player Profile: Chris Conley

Jacob Feldman

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Combine Review              

Height – 6’2”
Weight – 213 pounds
Hands – 9.875”
Arm Length – 33.75”
40 Yard Dash – 4.35 seconds (Third best receiver this year)
3 Cone Drill – 7.06 seconds
20 Yard Shuttle – 4.30 seconds
Vertical Jump – 45” (Best for any position in over a decade)
Broad Jump – 139” (Best receiver ever, second best player all time at the combine)

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Strengths

*Extremely gifted athletically with speed, acceleration and explosiveness
*Great hands catcher who can pluck the ball out of the air well outside of his frame as well as make one handed catches when needed
*Excellent body control to make acrobatic catches near the sideline and in the end zone
*Supreme character and work ethic
*Good instincts to help him get open
*Adjusts well when the ball is in the air and uses his frame to box out defenders

Weaknesses          

*Limited production in college due to a very run heavy offense at Georgia
*Routes need a little bit of polish if he is going to become a complete receiver
*Doesn’t always play as physical as his size would suggest. Sometimes gets redirected too easily.
*Change of direction ability is merely average, so his ability to make defenders miss in the open field is limited

Overall Skill Set

When someone with limited college production comes into the combine and just destroys everyone else, the immediate place a lot of people go is to think he is just a “workout warrior.” Often times that is the case, but the pressing matter right now is if that is the case of Chris Conley? To put his combine into perspective, it wasn’t just the best this year it is the best since Julio Jones. If you following my statistical analysis of wide receiver combine results, you already know Conley joins a very elite group with Jones, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson when it comes to combine performances. Anyone in that group, I’m definitely going to take a chance on!

Georgia’s run first, second, and third approach limited Conley’s role in the offense. However, when he was targeted he most certainly flashed. He showed great hands, body control and athleticism. He is also a high character individual with a great work ethic. Where he struggles a little bit is when he needs to change direction. His straight line speed and acceleration is great, but when he needs to plant and change directions it isn’t quite the same, which diminishes his ability to make defenders miss in the open field. He also struggles more than he should against press coverage. I think it is more a technique issue than a strength issue, so he should be able to fix that issue.

Opportunities

Stop for a moment and see how many Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers you can name. I’ll be impressed if you were able to name much more than Jeremy Maclin. Outside of Maclin, the rest of the wide receivers currently on roster are barely an afterthought. Last season with Dwayne Bowe in the mix, they managed to compile zero touchdowns as a group. Yes, zero as in none. Every passing touchdown went to a tight end of running back. In other words, I’ll be shocked if Conley isn’t the starter opposite Maclin week one of this season. He’s easily the most talented and gifted of the bunch.

Threats

The only real threat to Conley’s value is going to be his quarterback. Alex Smith isn’t exactly known for his downfield passing game, which takes a little bit of the shine off of Conley’s speed. The dink and dunk style of passing game isn’t a get match for Conley’s skill set. If you’re a Conley owner or a Chiefs’ fan, I think you need to be hoping they move on from Smith sometime in the next year or two and get a quarterback with a strong enough arm to take full advantage of Conley’s skill set.

Short-term Expectations

I fully expect Conley to be the week 1 starter opposite Maclin. The concern is he will be at best the third target in the passing game and maybe even the fourth with Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles in the mix as well. How productive can the fourth target for Alex Smith be for your fantasy team? I think you know the answer to that question. Unless you’re really desperate or in a best ball league, I don’t think Conley should be anywhere near your starting line up. He might have a game or two where he breaks a big play and puts up points, but he’s going to be extremely inconsistent this season even though he’ll be starting.

Long-term Expectations

The long term value for Conley all hinges upon how long Smith remains the starting quarterback for the Chiefs. I’m a firm believer that Conley has the talent to become the top receiver on an NFL team, but exactly what that is worth depends on who is throwing him the ball. Alex Smith’s top receiver is only going to be a fantasy WR2 at best. If the Chiefs get a new quarterback, Conley could easily be posting WR1 numbers in a few years. He’s my favorite high upside player in this year’s draft.

NFL Comparison

From a physical and athletic ability stand point, I already mentioned a few comparisons. He’s a slightly smaller Julio Jones. Granted, he doesn’t have the track record of production Jones had in college nor does he have Jones’s ability in the open field to make defenders miss, but I think his athletic ability is pretty much on par with Julio’s. Yes, I fully realize that is saying a lot, and I’m not saying he’ll be as productive as Julio, but I do believe Conley can be a WR1 for your fantasy squad if the Chiefs get a better quarterback down the road.

Projected Range for a Rookie Draft

In a few drafts, Conley might go as high as the middle of the second round in 12-team leagues if someone is going after upside – this is largely because there aren’t many players in this draft with the upside Conley possesses and all the ones who might have more are going to be gone in the first round. Most of the time he is going to go in the last few picks of the second round or the first few of the third round in a standard 12-team league.

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jacob feldman