Rookie Player Profile: Mike Davis

Rob Willette Posted On May 30, 2015

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Combine Review

Height: 5’9”
Weight: 217 pounds
Hands: 9.375”
Arm Length: 30.125”
40-Yard Dash: 4.52 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Vertical: 35.5”
Broad: N/A

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Strengths

We received the rare opportunity to see two different versions of Mike Davis during his college career. In 2013, he displayed a solid array of traits that portended a potential future as a starter in the NFL. Davis was aggressive to the hole and showed an uncanny ability to avoid big hits while sliding off defenders in the open field. Despite a compact frame, he was dangerous on the second level, routinely surging past defensive backs and showing a modicum of big play ability. Davis shined in the passing game as well. Per PFF, he logged the third most yards per route run during the 2014 season, and he displays soft hands a natural ability to catch the football and turn up the field immediately. He’s comfortable in pass protection and shows good effort, which I have always believed is a majority of the battle when it comes to blocking. He is unlikely to be a dynamic playmaker in the passing game, but he should be able to make significant contributions on third down.

Weaknesses

Pop in 2014 tape, and Davis occasionally looks as though he is running in quicksand. A couple injuries certainly hurt his cause, though it showed he is operating with little room for error due to a mediocre athletic profile. Many of these flaws were also present his entire career – they were just masked when he was operating at full speed. Despite good bulk, he does not always finish his runs with authority, a weakness that is further exposed given his lack of agility in tight spaces. He’s much more of a north/south runner, which is an admirable trait if he could add insatiable willpower to his game. He is not going to beat people on the edges at the next level, so he will need to utilize his pad level to fight for every yard available.

Opportunities

San Francisco is not the greatest opportunity in the world, given that the organization invested a 2014 second round pick on Carlos Hyde in hopes that he’d be develop into the heir apparent to Frank Gore. But Hyde’s rookie year was lukewarm, leaving some to wonder if he has the goods to emerge as a true feature back. At the very least, the depth chart is wide open behind Hyde, as a 30-year old Reggie Bush and off an Achilles tear Kendall Hunter are the only obstacles to becoming the number two back. Given Davis’ third down chops, early opportunity is present and long-term opportunity is greater than meets the eye.

Threats

The biggest threat to Davis’ career may be the wilting flower that is the 49ers organization. Colin Kaepernick has stagnated under center lately, while the team elected to chase one of the league’s most successful coaches out of town. It is hard to see an offense that has been at best mercurial make any strides given the personnel at hand. We see plenty of players flourish on mediocre to bad football teams, but Davis may not have the natural talent to support less than elite talent around him.

Short-term Expectations

There’s little reason to invest in Mike Davis in re-draft leagues. The backfield could potentially be a three or four man quagmire, and it is unlikely the team as a whole offers a bonanza of fantasy points.

Long-term Expectations

I’m not bullish on Davis long-term as a dynasty asset. I see him falling just a touch short in many areas of the game, with his talent speaking to that of a career back-up that can make spot starts in case of injury. While I expect him to stick in the NFL for a relatively long time, fantasy success is not in my forecast.

NFL Comparisons

If analyzing NFL impact, I’d liken Davis to someone like Toby Gerhart. Gerhart was effective as Adrian Peterson’s apprentice and exposed as lead runner in Jacksonville. Davis may yo-yo between rosters and the waiver wire, ultimately resulting in fantasy owners cursing him as one of the more boring players in the game.

Rookie Draft Advice

Davis is going off the board at #29 overall per DLF rookie ADP data, which I feel is aggressive for what I see as a role player destined for a back-up role. It speaks to how thirsty we are for running backs with an ounce of potential. I’d rather gamble on late round players I perceive to have infinitely more long-term potential, such as Davis’ teammate DeAndre Smelter.

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