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Rookie Risers and Fallers

Bell

Each year, the events of the NFL Draft and the rookies involved have a long-lasting impact on the league and while some of those effects can take a while to show up, a more immediate thud is often felt as we see the dynasty value of many players, rookies and veterans alike, fluctuate wildly.

A player whose value is on the rise as a result of the NFL Draft is not always a smart buy, just as a player who is losing value is not necessarily a player we should abandon. It’s been nearly a month since the 2015 NFL Draft and we’ve had some time for player value to shake out and the dynasty ADP to come to light.

Let’s take a look at the rookies who have seen their value change the most following the draft, and exactly how we should be reacting to those players.

Rookie Risers:

Matt Jones, RB WAS
April ADP: 237
May ADP: 186
Change: +51

Not only was former Florida running back Matt Jones a surprise day two pick by the Washington Redskins, he’s one rookie creating the most buzz since the draft, with speculation he could be one-half of a timeshare with Alfred Morris. It remains to be seen how this will play out, but the combination of being a third round pick and landing in a spot that desperately needs running back depth have moved Jones way up the board.

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Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
April ADP: 107
May ADP: 57
Change: +50 

Former USC wide receiver Nelson Agholor was already getting some hype from many in the fantasy industry and that exploded once he was chosen by Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s easy (and a bit lazy) to project Jeremy Maclin numbers for Agholor in his first year in Kelly’s offense. I like the player, but have my doubts if he can live up to his fifth round ADP early on in his career.

Javorius Allen, RB BAL
April ADP: 203
May ADP: 154
Change: +49

Like Jones, new Ravens running back Javorius “Buck” Allen is on the rise in large part due to his nice landing spot. Last year, the Ravens turned journeyman Justin Forsett into a weekly fantasy starter and despite his impressive play in 2014, it would be a surprise is he were able to repeat this performance. With no real depth behind Forsett, the assumption is Allen could see an early opportunity and for running backs – that equates to increased value.

Cameron Artis-Payne, RB CAR
April ADP: 235
May ADP: 190
Change: +45

Auburn’s Artis-Payne is a similar player to Allen and in a similar spot, landing behind Jonathan Stewart with the Panthers. Stewart is generally considered more talented than Forsett, meaning the path for Artis-Payne is not quite as clear, that is, until you consider Stewart’s lengthy injury history. All of these factors make Artis-Payne a nice flier in the sixteenth round, where he’s currently being drafted.

Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
April ADP: 148
May ADP: 107
Change: +41

Some dynasty players seem to be conflicted on how to value former Miami receiver Phillip Dorsett. After all, he was selected in the first round by a good team, but on the other hand, that good team is the Colts, who are absolutely loaded with pass catchers, which could limit Dorsett’s immediate opportunity. In the end, the surprise first round pick is climbing more than three rounds in just one month. Dorsett is another player I am not quite sold on, but first round pedigree and being paired with Andrew Luck is starting to change my mind.

Rookie Fallers

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
April ADP: 59
May ADP: 84
Change: -25

In the days leading up to the NFL Draft, word spread that former Boise State running back Jay Ajayi, who had been one of the most productive backs in all of college football, had an issue with his knee that had teams concerned. This is turn caused dynasty owners to have concerns. When we saw the draft play out and Ajayi fall to day three as the fourteenth back off the board, his dynasty stock plummeted. He had seemingly been a lock to be selected in the mid-first round of rookie drafts, but is now routinely falling to the middle of the second round. Likewise, his ADP is startup drafts has taken a hit, falling more than two rounds from his pre-NFL Draft spot. With the relatively short shelf life of running backs anyway, I’m glad to take the talented Ajayi at this discount.

Sammie Coates, WR PIT
April ADP: 116
May ADP: 138
Change: -22

Coates is an interesting prospect and one who most analysts and dynasty players either love or hate. Knowing that, it seems that his draft position late in the third round and his new team, the Steelers, have negatively impacted his dynasty value. Coates has been downgraded by many due to his amount of drops, along with a limited route tree. With Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller all lining up for targets, not to mention Markus Wheaton, Coates may be a player who continues to see his dynasty value drop.

Stefon Diggs, WR MIN
April ADP: 143
May ADP: 163
Change: -20

Much like Coates, Diggs is a receiver who has seen his stock drop since the 2014 college season concluded. Concerns about his health, size and even his role in the NFL caused Diggs to fall to the fifth round of the draft and made him an afterthought for most dynasty owners. With uncertainty, but lofty potential, at the receiver position for the Vikings, Diggs should have a chance to carve out a role and presents an excellent value in the fourteenth round of startup drafts.

Kenny Bell, WR TB
April ADP: 180
May ADP: 195
Change: -15

Of all the players mentioned above, their dramatic rise or fall is one we could all see coming following the events of draft weekend, but that changes here. Kenny Bell is a do everything receiver with good size out of Nebraska. He was beginning to earn a little buzz between the NFL Combine and the draft in late April, putting him on the radar of many dynasty players. Although he did fall to the late fifth round, that was his expected draft range and he lands in what looks like a good spot, playing alongside Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, as Vincent Jackson closes out his Tampa Bay career in the next year or two. If anything, Bell seems like a player who should be rising up draft boards, so when I see that he is actually falling more than a round beyond his pre-draft ADP, that makes him a prime target in the later rounds.

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Ryan McDowell
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Rob W
6 years ago

Re: Justin Forsett, “despite his impressive play in 2014, it would be a surprise is he were able to repeat this performance” – LOL. Career average 5.1 YPC. Chances to start until now? Zero. It would be a surprise if the person writing this article could beat me in fantasy football. If you have any open spots send me an invite and please keep suppressing player values.

Fred Jackson 2.0.

You’re at least sensible enough to have Brandon Marshall lower than anyone else on this website though so good on you for that. Take care.

Rok
Reply to  Rob W
6 years ago

Thanks for your contribution douchebag Rob!

mark adams(@silentmark)
Reply to  Rok
6 years ago

Douchbag or not, he’s right. Forsett is going to produce again, especially with Marc Trestman as OC. If you look the other way, that is a championship passing you buy 😉

Rob W
Reply to  mark adams
6 years ago

No problem Rok! I look forward to taking your money if you’re in any of my leagues. Try not to let the sand irritate your vagina too much. Oh look, what’s that sound? It’s news flashes about Forsett’s catch total doubling. It must suck to always be so late to the feeding bowl.

Rob W
Reply to  Rok
6 years ago

When someone makes an evaluation that overlooks a player’s entire career to that point, it’s worth raking them over the coals for it. Perhaps this writer will put more time into their work next time. Deal with it.

Yo Mamma
Reply to  Rob W
6 years ago

Relax, Rob. Take a deep breath. Spend some time this weekend outside your mother’s basement.

Robert Whorton(@robertwhorton)
Reply to  Yo Mamma
6 years ago

Cute, but I own my house, I’m a veteran, full-time student at the moment with plenty of summer to kill, and I spend thousands playing this game each year. This isn’t a freebie website tossing out advice. Anyone reading this is paying for premium analysis, not hunches.

Saying “despite the facts” then not supporting that statement with anything other than assumptions is sloppy analysis, at best. Marc Trestman joining the Ravens and Justin Forsett’s plus catch ability plus the lack of a stud signing and the only competition coming from a 4th round pick doesn’t point to him not repeating last year’s numbers.

If anything, his catches will go up. We’ve seen plenty of guys have great seasons then never repeat but not ones that have played multiple seasons with his level of efficiency that never received a legitimate shot to start. His YPC on the season was just a tick above his career rate and his legs are fresh.

Sold on him or not, omitting info is bad reporting. I could go read ESPN articles for free if I wanted to pretend that I was learning something.

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