Dynasty League Football

Dynasty

Weekly Twitter Observations

twitter

Each week I walk through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.

Quote of the Week

Colts punter Pat McAfee is the only NFL player I actually follow on Twitter. The guy is hilarious and most of the times completely on point. His sentiment around Ryan Tannehill’s new contract pretty much echoes everything I heard this week. People think it sounds like a lot of money for a seemingly average quarterback, but in today’s NFL there just are not that many truly elite options – that is why having a player like Andrew Luck on your roster in both real life and fantasy is gold.

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

Speaking of the Dolphins quarterback, Ryan Tannehill was also receiving fantasy love from the community at large.

[inlinead]?Tannehill continued to progress in his third season increasing his touchdowns by three while also reducing total interceptions by five from the prior year. His completion percentage also jumped significantly to 66.4%, partially due to Jarvis Landry’s 80% catch rate. As Adam pointed out, the weapons around Ryan appear to be an upgrade and he is also in the second year of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s system. Another top 10 finish in ’15 might be tough with players like Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Cam Newton behind him, but Tannehill is a young player whose fantasy trajectory is still point up. Currently the DLF staff has him ranked as the 8th overall QB in dynasty, which feels about right. Ryan Tannehill will most likely never be a top fantasy quarterback, but he can also remain a low QB1/high QB2 prospect for the foreseeable future.

Martavis Bryant, WR PIT

Steelers second year wide receiver Martavis Bryant’s fantasy value should remain an interesting topic throughout the off-season. As a rookie he was a healthy scratch the first six games, but once injected into the regular lineup showed a penchant for catching touchdowns as Denny Carter remarked.

DLF’s Ryan McDowell also commented on his current fantasy standing.

Bryant’s value in 2015 mostly hinges on him securing the number two starting spot opposite of Antonio Brown. Martavis’ route running needs improvement as he mostly benefited from speeding down the sidelines or catching short screens and fades in the end zone. He will definitely be regarded as a touchdown regression candidate, but that might not be completely fair. While he is unlikely to score about once every three catches, his total touchdowns should remain in the 8 to 10 range. His size will continue to afford him targets in the end zone; Brown and Le’Veon Bell will demand opposing defenses attention; the Steelers defense should continue to put pressure on the offense to score to win ball games. While it definitely looks like his dynasty ADP is rising steadily, his redraft value is also trending higher. Checking Fantasy Football Calculator’s recent re-draft ADP data, Martavis is coming off the board as the 24th overall receiver ahead of players like Landry, Jeremy Maclin and Keenan Allen. I expect Martavis Bryant to be the Steelers number two receiver but also see up and down games fluctuating between WR2 and WR3 status.

Russell Wilson, QB SEA

Wilson had a stellar season in 2014 both in real life in fantasy. His return on draft position likely won a lot of teams championships. So what do we make of the fourth year pro this season? Russell Clay threw out his sentiments tweeting,

Wilson has actually improved his rushing and passing yards each of his first three seasons. His total touchdowns on the other hand have slipped each year from 30 as a rookie to only 26 in 2014. The addition of Jimmy Graham seems to point towards the increase in passing yards as Russell mentioned, but most are definitely focusing on the rushing aspect of his game. As a runner Wilson would have been the 15th overall running back in standard leagues in terms of fantasy alone. So expecting his rushing numbers to decline is not unreasonable, but I am not sure it will account for that great of an overall decline. Running quick numbers with expected increases of 200 yards passing and six passing touchdowns (average of his first two seasons) netted out against a 350 yard reduction in rushing and four less running scores you are still left with a top five or six fantasy quarterback. The overall loss in production under this scenario would be less than 2 points per game. Wilson will also likely have a higher floor with more reliance on passing, though his ceiling will drop. In terms of dynasty he is still sitting just behind Luck and Aaron Rodgers. He may not return top 3 or even top 5 fantasy production every year but he also is unlikely to fall out of the top 10.

PATs

The other top story from the NFL this week has revolved around the new PAT (Point After Touchdown) rules set in place. The new rule moves extra-point kicks back to the fifteen yard line essentially making the try a 32 to 33 yard field goal attempt. The previous extra point had become so automatic that something had to be done and I liked James Todd’s comment on the subject as well.


While the hope is that more two point conversion tries are attempted in 2015 due to the rule, many of the stats and data I have read still have the 32/33 yard field goal coming in around a 95-97% success rate. The kicker also gets to pick where the ball is placed between the hash marks, presumably straight on, increasing the likelihood of a make. So will this make a difference in scoring? Probably not, but I do like the fact that this could begin to devalue the kicker position in fantasy. (Side note, if you are still using kickers in fantasy you are doing it wrong [personal opinion that does not reflect the sentiments of Dynasty League Football]). Looking around the league quickly, the most sensible spot from my vantage is for Pete Carroll to be the first to jump on the chance to double down on his PATs. Between Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham and Russell Wilson, the team may have the best option at all three positions to get the ball in from the two yard line. And really how could you ever conceive not running Beastmode when you only need two yards to score? (sorry Seahawks fans) As mentioned, I doubt there will be any massive swings that take place, but if your running back, receiver or tight end started getting you an additional two points per week on average we would have something to talk about. Also if your kicker lost out on a couple extra options for points each week you might actually stop drafting them prior to the last round (if you are still drafting them at all).

Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.

[ad5]?

Luke Wetta

Writer at Dynasty League Football
Luke loves to read and spends his days sharing the best articles and analysis from the ever-expanding world of fantasy football. Playing fantasy for 14 years his favorite player stat line still belongs to Jerome Bettis' 5 attempts for 1 yard and 3 touchdowns game (It helped he started "The Bus" that week). He holds no allegiance to any particular NFL team and is more upset about a loss on his fantasy team than any outcomes in real life. If he has time for a vacation the destination is always Vegas.

Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
Luke Wetta

Latest posts by Luke Wetta (see all)

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. ChiefsHonk

    May 22, 2015 at 7:16 am

    I like R Wilson this year and I think he will throw for more yards/TDs and take less hits. R Wilson can keep a play alive longer for Graham to break off his route and get open….so his scrambles may go down. Who wants a QB to score points rushing anyway? Is anyone bummed that Tom Brady or Peyton Manning didn’t have any rushing yards/TDs? I have Wilson/Graham combo in 2 leagues this year FTW!

    • VinceB128

      May 22, 2015 at 10:06 pm

      I actually traded for Graham before he was traded to Seattle. And in that league my starting QB is Wilson. I wasn’t all that upset he got moved.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

To Top