LIVE Rookie Draft: Round Two Update

lockettHope you all had a great NFL draft event – the most exciting days of the year in my estimation!

My longest running dynasty league has always kicked off our fantasy rookie draft as the first NFL team is put on the clock in the NFL Draft.  This league is a 10-team, 35 player roster, PPR based IDP league with six points scored for every touchdown (thus making quarterbacks even more valuable).  The coaches are all very good, while at the same time, very different in how they build their teams, rank their players and evaluate rookies.  As with all leagues, this group very much looks forward to our annual rookie draft and there has never been a need for a draft clock.  Our coaches are great at not holding up the draft for long periods of time or over-analyzing the players to great degrees.

I won’t bore you with a lot of details as it’s a live rookie draft.  What more is there to say?

One quick note about this draft – there are two teams in major rebuilding mode, with mine being one of them.  Each of these two teams had multiple picks in the first round.  In my case, I owned picks two, four and seven. The other team owned picks one, nine and ten.  My strategy in 2014 was to stockpile picks in the 2015 rookie draft as I expected it to be a strong class, headlined by Todd Gurley.  As it turned out, my team wasn’t bad enough to land the top overall selection.

In this article, I’ll list each selection followed by a short summary of my thoughts.  As each round is completed, I will update the article with that next round so stay tuned!

Let’s get to the action!

Round One

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1.01  Amari Cooper, WR OAK

Not a shock here at all.  The rebuilding coach who owns this pick also owns picks nine and ten in round one.  He already has a decent stable of running backs and needs receiver help.  Cooper is the safest player in this draft, at least on my board.  He’s a silky smooth route runner with quality hands and is crafty in space.  The best part about this pick is that I selected next and Gurley was still on the board.

1.02  Todd Gurley, RB STL

My rebuild begins.  My receiver group is relatively solid, but my running backs following the trade of Marshawn Lynch leave a lot to be desired.  In our format, you only have to start one back and I’m hoping Gurley will be mine for the next seven years.

1.03  Melvin Gordon, RB SD

Like me, the coach of this team badly needed a running back AND happens to be a San Diego transplant.  Bonus!  He’s stoked to get Gordon in what is one of the top running back situations of 2015.  I’m somewhat concerned Gordon will lose receptions to Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown, but either way, Gordon is a high motor workout machine who should anchor his running back situation for many years.

1.04  Kevin White, WR CHI

This was my second pick of the first round and it was an easy selection.  I really like the situation White fell into and he’ll likely start immediately across from Alshon Jeffery.  Jeffery will continue to receive most of the double coverage until White can establish himself We all know quarterback Jay Cutler isn’t afraid to take chances downfield.  White is the top receiver on many boards and, if that is the case, I’ve stolen arguably the top two players in the draft.  Either way, however, I’ve got two young cornerstone pieces who should start for many years.

1.05  Jameis Winston, QB TB

A selection of a quarterback in our league in the top two-thirds of the first round is not a common occurrence, save Andrew Luck.  In this case, the coach needed a young signal caller to play behind the enigmatic Colin Kaepernick.  I don’t have a problem with this selection as it fills a need and Winston goes to a nice situation for potential early production (remember, this league scores six points for a passing touchdown).  Neither quarterback would be on the board by this pick in the second round.

1.06  DeVante Parker, WR MIA

Parker is ranked very highly on my board, very closely behind Kevin White.  As much as I like Parker, I don’t like his drafted situation in Miami.  It could be the system, it could be Ryan Tannehill, it could be the lack of a production coming from Miami receivers in the recent past.  I can’t necessarily put my finger on it, but I find myself disappointed.  That said, if he had fallen to me, I would likely have had to pull the trigger on him.

1.07  Breshad Perriman, WR BAL

This was my third pick in the first round.  I had a REAL decision on my hands and I don’t normally find myself completely confused as to who to select.  All the players offered something different to my team.  On one hand, TJ Yeldon fell to a fantastic starting situation and has the talent to make something of it.  Dorial Green-Beckham (DGB) is a huge talent AND a huge risk.  Perriman has tremendous speed and size in the mold of Julio Jones, but not as time-tested or polished.  He’ll immediately fill the shoes of the departed Torrey Smith and should have a significantly higher ceiling.  Questions about his hands make me nervous when DGB could provide a massive presence in my lineup.  I have Tevin Coleman and Yeldon nearly even on my board and seeing as how I also hold the second pick in the second round (twelfth overall), one of them could still fall.  My heart wants DGB but with Josh Gordon already on my roster … well … enough said.  Joe Flacco throws, arguably, the best deep ball in the league which should be right in Perriman’s wheelhouse.   Perriman, if he hits would make for a monster draft class for me.

1.08  Nelson Agholor, WR PHI

I was happy to see Agholor go to Philly as I already have Jordan Matthews.  While he could be a high producer in Chip Kelly’s quick twitch offense, Agholor reminds me a lot of Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, both of whom were overly hyped and have yet to produce to the expected level.  But the Eagles’ system should put his skills to use.  I think it’s a good selection here.

1.09  Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN

I was hoping DGB would slide while at the same time hoping he’d come off the board before my next selection.  I would have gladly taken him at 2.02, but now I don’t have to worry about it.  He’s a huge target, has great hands and plus level leaping ability (but not elite).  He has little clue how to run a route and I don’t see elite athleticism out of his breaks or how he stems his routes.  He uses his body extremely well and can leap when required.  He lets too many balls into his body when it’s not needed.  Lazy hands can be an issue, but he’s oh-so talented otherwise.  He’s a major head case which will have to be considered but if he keeps his head secured and focused, he’s got monster upside.  It’s a good risk reward play at 1.09.  Lastly, I’m not excited about his drafted situation, but it’s certainly better than Kansas City.

1.10  Marcus Mariota, QB TEN

This is the second of three picks this coach has in a row, starting with DGB at 1.09.  He badly needs a young quarterback and Mariota  makes for a good selection at a point where the first quarterbacks often come off the board in our drafts, often at pick nine or higher.  Mariota is a quiet leader and doesn’t really fit Tennessee’s system, but perhaps coach Whisenhunt is willing to mix in some up-tempo and spread-type plays to utilize Mariota’s athleticism. What am I most happy about?  The fact both Winston and Mariota both went in the first round, meaning the other two players I wanted were pushed down.  As round one is in the books, Tevin Coleman and TJ Yeldon are both still available, meaning I’ll get one on this running back-needy team.

Summary

Not a lot of surprises here other than Winston and Mariota going perhaps a bit higher than expected, but both selecting coaches needed young quarterback help.  DGB falling to 1.09 isn’t a surprise as it is a realization of what he is – a high ceiling, high risk player.  It’s much easier to select him if you have multiple selections in the round as the selecting coach did.    For my team, I come out with :

1.02  Todd Gurley, RB STL
1.04  Kevin White, WR CHI
1.07  Breshad Perriman, WR BAL

The selection of Perriman will dictate just how goo this draft will be for me.  Even without him, I feel great and it’s the best draft I’ve put together in the team’s history.  But I guess I need to wait until they actually play the game to see how well they perform.

Round 2

Before I get to the round two players, I want to make reference to an article I wrote last year about not only knowing the specifics of your draft, format and valuation system but also how you categorize the league.  Many of us play in multiple leagues, perhaps even a dozen or more (as I do).  Each league you participate in will have a different level of competition, seriousness, payout and overall complexion.  My purpose for stating this is because in some cases, the selections we made may go beyond best player available, fit or drafted situation and, instead, fall more into a category such as favorite team, favorite player or  some other non-metric-based valuation.  In some leagues, I’m prone to doing this myself – this league being one of them.

My epiphany came a couple years ago when I found myself frustrated with having too many leagues, not enough time and even a degree of dissatisfaction with the seriousness of my fellow coaches, or what I perceived to be a lack of passion or interest in the league, at least enough to be competitive.  I almost made the biggest mistake of my fantasy coaching career as I decided to leave the league following the season.  But after making that difficult decision (and before it was too late), I realized that this league was not only my longest running dynasty league and the league by which, in fact, DLF itself was born from, but that I had long used THIS team as the team for amassing my favorite players.  Regardless, my other teams or larger payout structures, THIS was the team that I rooted for and watched on Sundays.  This was the team that made my Sunday great, or ruined the weekend.  Beyond championships, playoff berths or win-loss percentage, this was the team that embodied my fantasy football enjoyment.

…and I almost gave that up.

Don’t forget these drafts and your teams need to be fun.  A championship doesn’t mean a thing if you didn’t enjoy the game or your players.  And a lack of a championship doesn’t mean the year was a failure.  Understand what the league means to you and don’t be afraid to select players that bring enjoyment to your fantasy experience, even if they may not align with your fellow coaches valuation system or DLF’s player rankings.  If you have a favorite team or a favorite player and have the opportunity to select him, group think be damned, especially outside of the first round where history has shown that a small percentage of players become fantasy producers anyway.  This is your draft and you should be allowed to draft how YOU want.

Now let’s get to the picks.

2.01  Ameer Abdullah, RB DET

This is the third pick in a row for this coach and he chose the player which appears to be the Swiss Army knife of the 2015 draft.  Abullah is ridiculously dynamic and being that this league is PPR based, his value is much higher.  I’m not a big fan of Abdullah in fantasy, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t somewhat conflicted about his potential.  Detroit appears to be the perfect situation for him but I don’t believe a player of his talent will be more than a sporadic producer  in fantasy, to a frustrating degree.  But anything is possible.  In a league (NFL) that is sucking the productive life and value out of fantasy running backs, I’m downgrading smaller backs and upgrading bigger backs with what I perceive to be three-down ability.

2.02  TJ Yeldon, RB JAX

My first selection in the second round.  In a ranking article earlier this year, I had Yeldon as my RB4 in 2015, drawing the ire of many.  To me, the tape didn’t lie although I will admit that his 2014 season was somewhat underwhelming.  The younger Yeldon showed what was possible while current day Yeldon showed the foundation for what could be, but never truly materialized in 2014.   That’s not to say just shy of 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns was a failure. Yeldon has fine short-area agility, quick feet, great vision and the ability to pick up yards after content.  He runs higher than I would like and has had problems hanging onto the ball but his talent and athleticism are undeniable.  When comparing him to Tevin Coleman, while not possessing the same speed, it’s clear to me Yeldon is the superior back.  Being that Yeldon and Coleman are still on the board with this pick, my choice confirms my ranking.  I wish he had a better offensive line in front of him, but the Jaguars offense should be improved.  Furthermore, put in a tape of Le’Veon Bell, compare measurables and tell me that the two aren’t extremely similar.

2.03  Tevin Coleman, RB ATL

It’s very difficult to argue this pick and I won’t.  I nearly selected him myself.  Coleman’s speed is his calling card and he won’t be caught from behind.  He goes to an offense that is well established and in need of a bigger back. Atlanta is a fine situation for Coleman but for the existence of Devonta Freeman.  I’ve never seen Freeman as a carry-the-load runner and my belief is that he’ll be the complementary back behind Coleman but Atlanta isn’t afraid to use multiple backs.  I’m looking fro Coleman to get 60-65% of the touches which does lower his fantasy value.  Coleman’s ceiling is higher but his thinner base, lack of strength and single dynamic style also means that his floor is lower.   At least in my book and I’ve been a Coleman fan for a long time now.

2.04  Tyler Lockett, WR SEA

My diatribe above to begin round two was foreshadowing this selection.  You won’t find Lockett anywhere near #14 overall on any rookie lists, but his dynamic is capable of producing at this level.  It was a curious pick by Seattle and a more curious pick by this fantasy coach until you realize that he’s a huge Seahawk fan and a big fan of Lockett as well.  I don’t believe Lockett will play to his selection but here in the second round, history shows that only 15% will.  I’m happy with this selection as I see all remaining second round selections as being somewhat ordained and a surprising selection pushes one more player down to me at 3.02.  Being that I had listed eight solid players on my board with me picking ninth, the Lockett selection gives me that eighth player.  Lockett will see return duty and play some limited slot to begin 2015.  Where this quick-twitch player goes from there, we’ll have to wait and see. One thing is certain about this coach, however – he’s never been shy about going away from rankings with his selections and he’s hit more often than not. He’s either a really seasoned scout or totally insane. It’s worked either way.

2.05  Phillip Dorsett, WR IND

This was a curious pick by Indy and somewhat surprising this early in the second round.  But to each their own.  With Andrew Luck at the helm and an offense filled with impact players, Dorsett could make waves early.  With TY Hilton in a contract year, this may be a combination of leverage and protection.  Hilton and Dorsett are similar in many ways.  I find Dorsett far more intriguing as a player than I did Hilton but TY has become a nice weapon in his right.  Ultimately, I’m glad Dorsett was taken here as I think he’s a better selection in the high teens.  I just don’t see enough balls to go around to make him a consistent producer in fantasy.

2.06  Jaelen Strong, WR HOU

Strong went later than expected and he’s a nice “get” here.  He’s one of those receivers that lacks multiple intrigue points and isn’t overly special in any one area.  He’s a nice player with good size, good enough athleticism and a fair catch radius.  I question his play speed at the next level, his ability to beat jams at the line of scrimmage and his route running.  But at 2.06 and in a great situation in Houston, it’s a great value pick with upside.  While the second round has held surprises, most of the players appear to be in their projected draft slots, at least within an expected deviation of a couple picks.

2.07  Jay Ajayi, RB MIA

What a fall.

Ajayi must have been disappointed and I was disappointed for him.  The news came out late that declared his fall was due to a bone on bone condition in his knee.  Common thought is he’ll be good for a one contract but that his talent is too good to pass on as late as he went.  This puts Lamar Miller (and owners) squarely in the cross hairs and it remains to be seen how the carries are split.  What we do know about Ajayi is that there was no evidence of poor knees at Boise State, he runs with aggression but has nifty enough feet and while some have made Marshawn Lynch comparisons, he’s far more fluid with the ball in his hand than was Lynch coming out of Cal.  He reminds me a bit of Marion Barber at his peak while playing for the Cowboys.  It was hard to forecast Ajayi falling much further.

2.08  Maxx Williams, TE BAL

It’s a great location for Dos Equis (a nickname applied by a DLF member).  Dennis Pitta’s future is squarely in doubt and Williams has the ability to step in from day one.  Baltimore’s system is extremely friendly for tight ends and the existence of Breshad Perriman should open up the middle of the field for whichever tight end gets the start.  If Williams isn’t starting from day one, I suspect that he won’t be waiting long.  Many tight ends take two to three years to find production in the NFL but the situation for Dos Equis is just too good to pass up.  I think his selection at 2.08 is a minor steal.

2.09  Duke Johnson, RB CLE

I’m honestly not sure what to make of this pick by Cleveland.  The Browns are the new team where running backs go to die and now there’s three fighting to be the next back to underwhelm.  I’m staying away from this situation unless Johnson falls into the third round.  I’ll let someone else get excited about his skills and his landing spot.

2.10  David Johnson, RB ARI

The second Johnson off the board falls to a terrific situation.  The Cardinals need a big back to complement Andre Ellington and Johnson is a perfect fit.  He’s not elusive, overly agile or a speed threat but he’s got great hands out of the backfield, patient enough to exploit gaps and there’s been a buzz about him since the Combine.  After watching every tape I could find on him, I came away largely unimpressed with his skill set as an every down runner but very impressed with is fluidity, hands and ability to make something out of nothing.  He’s too stiff to provide a high ceiling and another factor weighing on him is his age, he’ll be 24 before the end of the year.  But, with the 20th selection overall, it’s hard not to be excited about his opportunity in Arizona.  For players like Johnson, all you can hope for as a coach is that he sees time on the field early in his career.  Ellington owners beware!

I hope you enjoyed round two.  Round three should be up before too long!

Follow me on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

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jeff haverlack