This is the final part in a series covering dynasty rookie drafts, pick value and historical ADP. If you missed parts one through four, we’d strongly recommend you check them out before continuing on with this article – they help set the stage for what we will be discussing today.
For all the talk of hit rate and value of rookies, one thing we haven’t really discussed is how these rates compare to those of veterans. I did stage a valiant attempt at figuring out how to do this in a way that would work for this series. But because of the massive amount of players I’d have to track from year-to-year, it wasn’t meant to be.
As a direct result of my abandonment of that plan, the focus of this series shifted from coming to conclusions to presenting data and allowing the reader to make conclusions on their own. As I update this study next year and in seasons after, I may revisit the veteran conundrum, but for now, we will let things lay as they are.
Well, almost. Just one more point on this, I promise.
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Even though I can’t quantify in numbers what value a vet has versus a rookie, when looking at players and ADP and production and rankings, I feel as though I have a good idea of what I’m getting. Perhaps because I’m not a draftnik or scout, that isn’t something I have with most rookies. My strong hunch is I’m not the only one. Heck, even NFL teams get it wrong. And when they do get it right, it’s mostly because they have more picks than others.
OK, now I’m done. So let’s bring this baby home.
My best guess is if you are into young players, I probably haven’t said much to change your mind. I’m also fairly sure if you are the type to sell off picks for vets, you aren’t turning over a new leaf based on anything I said. All that is OK with me.
When I set out on this path, I thought I’d find out how overpriced rookies were. I was sure I’d help reverse the youth movement. But the more I got into it, the more I realized these things I had in my head were wrong, but also right. I mentioned this in part one, but the thing this series has really taught me is that there is no best path, only different paths.
None of this is to say there aren’t bad options. Specifically, dumping off players at a discount when they turn 27, missing out on two to four years of prime production in order to take shots at rookies is foolish at best. There is literally no roster with which I’d advise you to do this. Conversely, continually moving all your high picks for veterans with only a couple years of good to great production isn’t a sustainable model.
Balance is key.
So is being flexible with your strategies.
If you just took over an awful team with no hope of winning any time soon, accumulate as many picks as you can by selling off vets during the season. Then either do your best to hammer the draft, sell the picks when their value is at its best or a mixture of both.
Maybe your savvy ownership built a very good roster over the years. Better still, you are sitting on multiple picks in the late first and early second. Everything we’ve talked about tells me you should be moving up to the top of the draft. Having a volume of picks is great, but odds are good that because your roster is already so good you’ll end up with depth players, or worse. Instead, raise the variance and go all-in on one player. They may end up being the guy who keeps you on top for the next half a decade. And if not, you are still in great shape.
But what if you are stuck in the middle with a tweener roster? Don’t make a plan. Just take it as it comes. Float offers all over all year round, being careful to sell vets and acquire picks in-season and sell picks to acquire vets once Mr. Irrelevant has gone off the board. In general, take the best deals regardless of if you are getting picks or selling them.
My point here is that nothing matters as much as your roster. It should shape every decision you make. If you are inundated with uninspiring, solid players, chase some upside. If you have a roster full of Martavis Bryant’s and Donte Moncrief’s, look for some stability.
I could go on all day, but I digress.
The most important things about rookie picks, the thing that makes them worth what they are, is that when you hit big, you win games. When you turn the 1.03 into Le’Veon Bell, the 2.01 into Randall Cobb, the 1.07 into DeAndre Hopkins, or the 1.02 into Dez Bryant, good things happen. All the math, all the charts and tables and graphs can’t put a value on turning a pick with an ADP in the 50’s into a top-five asset.
You are going to miss (a lot) along the way. You will draft Beanie Wells and Tavon Austin. But if you are smart about how many picks you make, what you pay for them, and how you spend them, they can be an essential part of a winning strategy.
I would like to thank George Kritikos and Scott Peak for their invaluable help with and advice on this project. I also want to recognize Dan Meylor and Eric Dickens for being sounding boards when I got stuck. And finally, a big thanks goes out to my college statistics professor, Dr. Mare Miller, who also happens to be my mother, and Adam Eppinger for helping me with the probability math in part four.
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- How to Win Without Watching Football - July 22, 2021
- 2018 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - July 9, 2018
- NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the AFC North - June 18, 2018

“Having a volume of picks is great, but odds are good that because your roster is already so good you’ll end up with depth players, or worse. Instead, raise the variance and go all-in on one player. They may end up being the guy who keeps you on top for the next half a decade. And if not, you are still in great shape.”
This is great advice, Jeff. My team is consistently in the playoffs, but was missing one or two pieces of elite talent to possibly get me over the top. I was holding two late 1sts in this upcoming draft and the 2nd pick of the 2nd round. I traded the two 1sts, a 1st next year and Bishop Sankey for A.J. Green. That may seem like a lot to some, but just what my team needs. I also flipped the 2nd pick of the second and sent it back to the original owner of the pick for the 2nd pick of the 3rd and C.J. Spiller. I do believe there is a time and place to use high draft picks, but having a balance, like you said, is key to remaining competitive in a dynasty league.
Very well said!
Dang, nice. I tried to trade AJ for the top pick and the guys #1 next year. He has a good team, was just very unlucky in his matchups. I am weak at RB and strong at WR. I also have #5 and #10 in 12 team. Figured Gurly, WR, and then another RB (Coleman or Yeldon), although maybe would have flipped that. But alas, he didnt do it. May end up being fortuitous, but for sure I will have to take a RB at #5 now.
Good job on getting AJ, hopefully he puts you over the proverbial edge.
I’m not sure I’d do A.J. for the two firsts, so maybe you did get lucky he declined.
Instead of taking an RB at 1.05 I’d look to move up for Gordon or drop back a couple picks. It seems as though seven is about as high as Yeldon, Coleman, or Abdullah are coming off the board.
I have a dilemma, albeit a good one. I don’t have a 1st round pick this year and don’t pick until the 12th pick in the 2nd round in a 12 man league. Thinking about trading Forte, Crowell, Stafford, Moncrief and Reuben Randle for picks 1.02, 1.10, 1.10 & 2.2 along with Eli Manning. It’s a 2QB Dynasty league and I was able to win the championship last year based on my WR’s. The reasoning for the shakeup is I want to replace my RB’s with the following in mind:
Pick 1.02 Gurley (Gordon if Gurley goes #1), 1.10 Perriman 1.12 T Coleman or Yeldon 2.02 David Johnson, Green-Beckham or J. Strong.
In 2QB league #1 pick is likely Winston. Ideally I’d walk away with Gurley, Perriman, Coleman and either Green-Beckham or David Johnson. Forte likely only has 1-2 years left in the tank, Crowell’s value took big hit with Duke Johnson drafted, Moncrief same with Dorsett drafted and not a fan of Randle. Only one I’m taking hit on is Eli for Stafford. Please provide thoughts on my trade proposal- am I crazy in proposing this? Here’s my current offense:
QB: Tannehill, Stafford, Dalton
RB: Forte, Crowell, Ryan Matthews, A. Blue, Bryce Brown, B. Pierce
WR: Dez, Jordy, Demaryius Thomas, V. Cruz, Moncrief, R. Randle, B. Quick
TE: G. Olsen
Thanks.
First off, there is almost zero chance Green-Beckham slides out of the first, even in a 2QB league. So don’t get your hopes too high. 🙂
Secondly, I don’t think the trade is bad in any way. You are selling low on Crowell and Moncrief, but I can understand why you want to get out from under them. You’re also selling low on Stafford after his poor fantasy season.
I’d probably do it if I were you, mostly because you have serious issues at RB.
Thanks for the quick response Jeff and keep up the great work. DLF is the only paid subscription I’ve ever had and it certainly paid off last year! BTW would love to see more 2QB league info/articles/rankings…
We have 2QB rookie ADP that is in the process of being updated.
Better yet, I’m in the midst of a 2QB startup that I plan to recap for DLF. As soon as the draft wraps (we are currently in round four of the slowest draft EVER), I’ll get that on the site!
Jeff,
Would you try to trade for an additional first round pick in a start up draft if it cost a 2016 first and a 3rd in the start up?
Hell yeah I would! I’d give my entire 2016 rookie draft (and probably my 2017 one on top of it) for a first round startup pick. This sounds like an unreal good deal for you.
I have an owner in my 12 team, .5 PPR league that wants my 1.4 pick in our rookie draft. Right now, the offer on the table is my 1.4 and 2.10 picks for his 1.5 and 2.1 picks. I’m real hesitant to step out of the top 4 picks, as there appears to be a drop off after Gurley, Cooper, White and Gordon. I think I’d probably still get a potentially good guy at 1.5 and the 2.1 pick is 9 picks better than what I have in the 2nd. My core team is very solid with A. Rodgers, L. Bell, D. Murray, L. Murray, A. Brown, J. Nelson, J. Maclin…so I’ll be drafting for best available player. Any thoughts are appreciated. Thanks!
i’d do it dan. personally i like parker more than white (that’s personal preference) but i think what you get in the other 9 slots is worth it. who knows, maybe someone really likes Jameis or like me Parker, you get your guy and you rebound with a coleman or DGB at 2.1 in lieu of a david cobb. i think it’s worth it, all personal preference, but i think the difference is much less between parker/white than the later options
I would do it also – T. Coleman looks solid and could even have a higher ceiling than Gordon his 2nd year in ATL. Then you have a top pick in round 2 for a QB or a strong WR 2. If you don’t get a strong WR 2 for the second round you could easily pick up D. Johnson (ARZ) who should take over for lead back next year. I’m not sold on L. Murray and depending on your 3rd round picks, you could find some depth at WR where there isn’t any left for RB. A lot to consider…
From a value perspective that is pretty fantastic. But I too have a pretty big tier drop off after the 1.04. That said…the value is sooooo good!
Your roster seems pretty salty, so I’d probably go ahead and make the deal then draft whoever you think has the most upside out of the available WR’s. Or package the 1.05 and 2.01 to anybody with two later firsts and snag two players from that tier.
Thanks guys….alot to consider indeed 🙂
I am in my first dynasty league this year and we already completed the start-up draft. Lots of trades have already taken place (player for player; trades involving picks and ones like you elluded to which are swapping assets). I just read all 5 parts this morning, downloaded your spreadsheet and plan to use some of this knowledge to help me next year. Needless to say, I am already a huge fan of this site.
I have already acquired an additional 3rd and 4th round pick for next year. With my current WRs, and based on your comment about him and Moncrief, (Perriman, Landry, Wallace, Marvin Jones, Hurns, Smith Sr., Devante Davis and Royal)would you consider trading Bryant for the likes of VJax or Boldin and Funchess with another 2016 pick? I am also finalizing a trade for Hopkins?
Thanks for the great work and the many different points of view.