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NFL Draft Day One Recap

Gurley

Last night had some surprises and featured many rumors that failed to have legs. We saw two quarterbacks taken with the first two picks for the first time since 2012 and just the sixth time in the Super Bowl era. We had six wide receivers taken along with two running backs, the first running backs taken this early since 2012. Below are the full results for round one.

nfldraftrecap

Let’s start with a little stock up and stock down.

Stock up

Todd Gurley, RB STL

Already the top rookie amongst most dynasty owners, Gurley landed in a solid situation. The Rams have an elite defense and are looking to be a ball control offense. Gurley is arguably the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson and will be given the ball consistently. Tre Mason loses out here, but he was no more than an average runner at best. Gurley is a three down player and should see upwards of 20 touches per game when healthy. He has a firm grip on the top rookie draft spot.

Shaq Thompson, LB CAR

It helps that Thompson was the first non-pass rusher to be chosen at the linebacker position. The Panthers need playmakers on the defensive side of the ball and Shaq has the versatility to be an outside linebacker or a safety. The immediate playing time will allow him to accumulate numbers quickly and he should see a fair number of opportunities to make big plays.

Nelson Agholor, WR PHI

While there were rumors that Agholor would end up in Philadelphia, he was being priced as a player who would be a second or third round NFL draft pick, not a first round selection. The confidence the Eagles showed is an indication the team sees him as a legitimate starter and someone who will see plenty of targets. Jordan Matthews had nearly 100 targets (98) in his rookie season and with Jeremy Maclin (140) gone, Agholor should see a substantial role early on. Don’t be surprised if he is a first round rookie pick from this point forward.

Breshad Perriman, WR BAL

[inlinead]Perriman is another wide receiver who will benefit from a team looking for some answers. With Torrey Smith gone, the Ravens were looking for a deep threat to pair with Joe Flacco’s cannon arm. Perriman is capable of taking the top off a defense and stretch the field the way Marc Trestman is looking for. His hands are spotty but Flacco will give him the opportunity to succeed early. Like Agholor, Perriman is likely a first round rookie draft lock going forward.

Stock down

DeVante Parker, WR MIA

This isn’t an indictment on the Dolphins’ offensive scheme or Ryan Tannehill, but confusion over their depth chart. Parker is the most talented receiver on the roster but will need to bide his time. Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron and Greg Jennings will all be fighting for targets with the new acquisition. While he won’t slip too far, Parker is now closer to the second tier of receivers than he is to the first.

Shane Ray, DE DEN

The loss in value has more to do with his new found 3-4 outside linebacker position than the off-field issues. Ray has the ability to be a double digit sack player down the line, but he will be stuck in a rotation in Denver in the short-term. Add in the positional transition and Ray loses a ton of value with the designation.

Phillip Dorsett, WR, IND

Maybe I am overreacting, but at the very least, this is a short-term downgrade. Much like Parker, he walks into a crowded situation with a lot of potential. I don’t want to write him off completely, but the offseason will be telling. How the Colts deal with Duron Carter and pending free agent TY Hilton will be telling for Dorsett’s long-term future.

Shock and Awe

Mariota is STILL a Titan

After all the talk, Marcus Mariota remains in the Music City. The feeling is teams have shied away after an astronomical asking price and that might be just fine. The Titans have a glut of young receivers and a running back with potential – the types of players who could grow with a rookie quarterback. There are still legitimate needs on this offense, but there were worse landing spots (here’s looking at you, Cleveland).

Trae Waynes is a Minnesota Viking

I really saw Parker going here, but the Vikings threw a monkey wrench in that pipe dream. Waynes is a fine player, but it was a slight reach considering the depth of cornerback going into round two. Don’t be surprised if the team revisits the receiver position in the subsequent rounds.

The Bud Dupree Slip n’ Slide

Some analysts had him as a top ten option, Dupree fell to the Steelers at #22 overall in just about the best situation available. The Steelers know how to use pass rushing talent and while he may not be an elite IDP option, they will maximize his value.

Landon Collins Denied

The near consensus top safety failed to find a home in round one. He has legitimate potential to rack up tackles and be a contributor in the secondary for IDP. Going into round two, there are a number of teams that could use a hard hitter like the former Crimson Tide player (Roll Tide).

Cowboys Reversal

With the top two running backs long gone, the Cowboys flipped to the defensive side and took Byron Jones. What position the athletic prodigy plays is unclear but this felt more like a selection of lust than one of need. I would have rather seen them address the front seven after experiencing multiple defections.

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Mr. Parker
6 years ago

George nice initial look. However I think you are off on Davante Parker. I think Landry is suited for the slot, and Stills is their burner. I think Parker fits in nicely as their new 1 and provides weapons all across the field for Tannehill. Jennings is a joke at this point. How is this a downgrade and White landing opposite Jeffrey and Bennett any different?

George Kritikos
Reply to  Mr. Parker
6 years ago

I guess I downgrade him more because he goes to a very uncertain environment given all the new faces. It could work out wonderfully, I just am risk averse and don’t think people should assume he’s the automatic top guy in Miami. Could easily become a situation where everyone hurts each other as the ball is spread around.

With White, I think it’s hugely beneficial for him to go to a team with established entities. He needs some polish on technique and having guys like Alshon and Bennett will ease his transition. That said, I expect he will not be a year 1 dynamo like OBJ or Evans.

Thanks for reading!

Alden
6 years ago

Best overall talent should be the deciding point in taking Dynasty players, I don’t look to start a rookie WR or TE or QB. If they step in and have great production, then its a bonus to have in case of injurys on my roster. RBs can step in and play right away. I know that rookies are producing earlier than in years past, so im watching to see how things play out going forward.

As long as its a dynasty league, I will look at things long term. Re drafts and start up leagues are different.

fantasyFreak
6 years ago

Can’t say I agree with Gurley’s stock going up. He was going to be a 3 down back wherever he went. He went to a really tough Defensive division. He’s going to have to earn every yard against the Hawks/Cards and he will see a lot of stacked boxes with their lack of outside weapons. They Rams also ranked 28th in the league in run blocking. Sure, they will be looking to grind out low scoring games with a good run game, and D, but I’d much rather see Gurley in an offence that can move the ball consistently. I’d say his stock stays the same or goes down slightly.

Mike
Reply to  fantasyFreak
6 years ago

With all the O-Line talent St just picked up Gurley’stock just skyRocketed again and Stacey just traded to the Jets. Gurley 1.1 glad I own the first pick.

John
Reply to  Mike
6 years ago

Total agree

fantasyFreak
Reply to  Mike
6 years ago

A bunch of Rookie OL? Maybe. I doubt it. If half of them pan out they’ll have a decent OL. I have the 1.01 and was thinking of Gurley or Cooper. Much prefer Cooper’s situation.

fantasyFreak
Reply to  fantasyFreak
6 years ago

How can a guy who was in the 1.01-1.03 have his stock “sky rocket”? And because they drafted some rookies for their OL. Like that Robinson guy from last year that was supposed to be so fantastic? Wishful thinking. Believe what you want, but I would have loved to see Gurley on at least 10 other teams more. His situation is less than ideal.

fantasyFreak
Reply to  fantasyFreak
6 years ago

That being said, I like the kid from Wisconsin, but a 6th round OL and what was the other, a 7th rounder? 2nd rounder and 4th rounder might be good, but come on, how much are you expecting from those late round guys. As it stands, they still have a below average OL with some rookie who might improve it, but temper your expectations a bit, they have zero viable weapons in the passing game and an average QB. Stacked boxes are going to be the norm.

6 years ago

I would like to chip in and say RB Melvin Gordon could easily be the best rookie RB in this year’s draft. His stock is way up in my opinion. He has an above average offensive line to block for him and an easy AFC West schedule this upcoming season. He’ll get many more carries than Gurley and has a better passing offense to keep the box less stacked against him. If I invest a top 1st round pick in a RB, I like production from the get go. Gurley is certainly talented, but don’t expect too much this season or maybe the next. Gurley’s ACL injury could take a step away from him, you just never know, and he’ll likely not be at 100% for a good part of the season.

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