Wide Receiver Combine Analysis: Part Four
If you’re an avid DLF premium reader, you’ve undoubtedly read both part one and part two of my analysis of the 2015 wide receiver class, using the NFL combine to quantify their athletic ability. If you haven’t read either of those, a chunk of this article won’t make any sense to you. If you want the full effect, go back and take a look at those.
Just to make life easier for you just, click here to see part one and click here to see part two. In order to check if all of this actually holds any water or is just a bunch of made up numbers, you can see my look back at the 2014 rookie class right here.
During those previous articles, I didn’t spend much if any time going over the top receivers in this draft class. Instead I focused on the players who will be middle round or late round selections. Since the top receivers are the players with the most upside and also the highest price tag, they deserve a little special treatment. I’m going to address the players in order of their score according to the metric I’ve developed. I’ll share their score, their risk level in my opinion, the where I would start considering them, the DLF consensus ranking and where I personally rank each of them.
One item to keep in mind with receivers is of course the NFL draft. I’m not talking about the situation they find themselves in but rather where they are selected. The data is hard to dispute. Wide receivers drafted in the first round of the NFL draft (especially those in the first 5 or 6 picks) have a much, much higher rate of success than any other receivers. After the first round, there is very little correlation. Third round wide receivers aren’t any more likely to be successful than seventh round wide receivers. Any wide receiver who is drafted in the first round of the NFL draft probably needs to be bumped up a bit when compared to receivers not taken that early.
**I’ve included the score without height based measurements for each player. That way those people who feel height has no impact on success in the NFL can get an idea of their score without height factored into the equation.
I previously went into detail on Sammie Coates, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Jaelen Strong and Devin Funchess. Here is a look at the other top receivers in the 2015 draft class.
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Devante Parker: -0.771, -1.969 without height
Risk Level: Moderate
Where I would consider drafting him: Early/Middle First
DLF Composite Ranking: 3rd wide receiver
My Ranking: 3rd wide receiver
Prior to the NFL combine there was a little debate about who the top receiver was in this draft class. Is it Cooper or was it Parker? Since the combine Parker’s name has been replaced with Kevin White. The funny thing is how similar Parker and White measured at the combine but the general perception is that White is the clear cut leader of the two now. Both are 6’3” with 9.25” hands. Their jumps were almost identical and while Parker has slightly longer arms, White has the edge in straight line speed and being a little bit more solidly built. Unfortunately Parker didn’t participate in the shuttle runs or three cone drill at the combine because there are some questions about his ability to change directions and to get in and out of his breaks quickly. That might be where White has the edge on Parker, and it is why I give White a slim lead on Parker for the second receiver slot.
On the field Parker has been consistently dominant for several years. He has fantastic, natural hands and is easily one of the best in this draft class when it comes to body control. He’s elite in both categories. He has a massive catch radius and win contested balls almost every time. His instincts at the position are also top notch. The problems for Parker mostly come down to what I mentioned earlier. He is a bit of a straight line receiver. His routes are average and he doesn’t create separation with them. There are also some injury concerns after he missed roughly half of last year with a foot injury.
Overall, I think the gap between Parker and White is smaller than most believe. Parker is the more established of the two with more college production but he has a slightly lower upside as well. Parker has some work to do, but he could be a very good option on an NFL team. I think he’ll be a consistent high end WR2 on your fantasy team as well if his foot is right and he can work on his route running.
Breshad Perriman: -1.275, -0.993 without height
Risk Level: High
Where I would consider drafting him: Late First
DLF Composite Ranking: 8th wide receiver
My Ranking: 7th wide receiver
Don’t put too much stock into Perriman’s score. Since he didn’t participate in any of the drills at the combine his number means almost nothing. It is merely a measurement of his physical size which is just a small part of the puzzle. At 6’2” and 212 pounds, Perriman has the build to potentially be the traditional top guy on an NFL team. His hands and arms are a little small for his height, but nothing too extreme. Looking at his pro-day numbers, remember he missed the combine due to a soft tissue injury, he has the athletic ability every team will want.
If you go back to watch Perriman play, he oozes athletic talent. It was hard to find a defender he couldn’t outrun or shake lose with his explosiveness and speed. Like most receivers who are supremely gifted from an athletic standpoint, Perriman relied on that ability to create separation more than running precise and efficient routes. In the NFL, where everyone is bigger and faster, he’ll need to work on the routes to get the same separation. The real issue for Perriman comes down to his hands. He isn’t a natural catcher of the football and it shows. He struggles with drops and lets far too many balls into his body.
Perriman is a pretty big boom or bust player for not only NFL teams but for your fantasy team as well. He could go the route of Stephen Hill, the big, gifted athlete who just can’t catch the ball. On the flip side he could turn into a true number one for an NFL team and push into the WR1 ranks on your fantasy team. He’s a great lottery pick late in the first round, but don’t reach too much for him because there is quite a bit of risk.
Nelson Agholor: -1.718, -0.779 without height
Risk Level: Moderate
Where I would consider drafting him: Middle/Late First
DLF Composite Ranking: 6th wide receiver
My Ranking: 6th wide receiver
One of the fastest risers of this offseason, Agholor has already moved from middle to late second round selection in fantasy drafts to potentially a middle first round pick. He was originally very under rated because he is a bit on the smaller side and doesn’t jump off the field like some of the other receivers in this draft. However, he is starting to near the area where he might be over rated just a little bit. Don’t get me wrong. I really like Agholor, but I question where his upside is at the next level.
Much like Perriman, don’t put too much stock into Agholor’s score. The only drill he participated in at the combine was the 40 yard dash. I think Agholor could have really helped himself by posting a nice vertical jump to show he has the ability to play outside at the next level. As it stands right now, I see a slot receiver when I look at Agholor. On the field he is sudden and runs nice routes. He is a natural hands catcher with great instincts. Unfortunately he struggles against bigger, stronger corners who can press him and get physical at the point of the catch.
Agholor is yet another in a long line of high profile USC receivers. The majority of the recent ones have been busts at the next level or at the very least been a disappointment. I think Agholor is the best of the recent batch, but he is also one of the smallest. I think he is a high floor but relative low ceiling player in the NFL. He most likely profiles as a slot receiver. If he ends up on a high volume passing team, there could be some solid value there as a WR3 with upside for your fantasy team, but I think he’s going to be a little dependent on the situation.
Dorial Green-Beckham: -2.295, -3.732 without height
Risk Level: Extreme
Where I would consider drafting him: Middle First
DLF Composite Ranking: 4th wide receiver
My Ranking: 5th wide receiver
DGB is by far the riskiest of the lottery tickets at the receiver position this year. He has arguably the most upside of any wide receiver in this year’s draft class, but his floor might also be the lowest of any of them. Consider it is going to take at least a middle first round pick to lock him up you really need to do your homework before committing to him. He’s been on the fantasy radar for years now and was talked about as potentially being the next Megatron. Even without the litany off the field issues that dream never came to fruition.
He checked in at 6’5” and 237 pounds, which is almost identical to Megatron, but I was surprised by the very small 9” hands and the arms which were shorter than they should be for his height. His straight line speed was a little disappointing but still satisfactory at 4.49 seconds and his three cone time was good, but the rest of his drills were a major disappointment. His shuttle time was the third worst of the entire draft class, showing a lack of ability to start and stop, while his jumps were both well into the lower half of the class. Given all of the hype, I was extremely disappointed in his combine showing.
It is really difficult to know what to expect from DGB once he gets back on the field. It has been over a year since he has played organized football which means he could have worked on his short comings or he could have become a little rusty. Going back a year now it is easy to see what made him the top prospect in the nation coming out of high school. His massive range, ability to track the ball and his body control start to explain the Megatron comparisons people were making a few years ago. Even though his hands are small, he catches pretty much anything that is near him.
The bad side of the coin isn’t limited to just character questions. DGB’s effort and work ethic are more than a little questionable. As a result his routes are very sloppy and create very little separation. He also doesn’t always play with the strength you would expect from a 237 pound receiver. There were times he would get pushed around at the line or get out muscled by a much smaller defender. When you mix in all of the off the field issues from drugs to burglary and battery you have a ton of red flags.
If it wasn’t for the upside, DGB would be much further down my list. He’s kind of like Josh Gordon 2.0. He could be just as good as Gordon was, but he could also share the same fate and spend more time suspended than on the field. There is major, major risk with DGB. Buyer beware!
Devin Smith: -2.448, -0.461 without height
Risk Level: Moderate
Where I would consider drafting him: Early Second
DLF Composite Ranking: 10th wide receiver
My Ranking: 9th wide receiver
I’m a Big 10 guy, so I was able to watch several Ohio State games over the last few years and watch Smith grow over that time. He wasn’t ever a high volume receiver but he was a major game changer. If you check out his stats from this past year, the first item to jump out is his massive 28.2 yards per catch. We’re talking about someone who had several catches per game, so him breaking long touchdowns was a regular occurrence for the Buckeyes. The question is if he’ll be able to do the same thing in the NFL over the next few years.
Smith’s combine was a little bit disappointing for me. I’m not saying it was bad, but I expected him to be even faster than his 4.42 second time in the 40 yard dash because during games he definitely plays at the different speed than everyone else. I was expecting closer to a 4.3 time. From a size perspective, he is almost a mirror image of Mike Wallace, and his game is pretty similar as well.
Smith is a very smooth deep threat, but he is a little bit of a one trick pony. His game is almost exclusively centered around the deep ball. His route tree is still a work in progress, especially at the shorter depths. While he tracks the ball well, I can remember more than a few times where he dropped or almost dropped what should have been easy touchdowns. He can also be outmuscled and redirected at the line by bigger corners in press coverage. Unless he works on his release, NFL defenses will have a field day with him.
There is a lot to like about Smith. He has the skills to turn into one of the best deep threats in the NFL, much like Wallace or DeSean Jackson. However, he is a very incomplete receiver right now. He needs to work on beating press coverage and he needs to learn to do more than just the deep ball. I love the upside though, and even if he’s only a deep threat on the right team that could still be WR3 numbers. He’s just going to be inconsistent until his game evolves. He’s one of my favorite early second round targets.
Well, looks like this is the end of my look at the 2015 wide receiver class, using their combine performances as a stepping stone into my analysis. Remember the combine is a great tool, but it is exactly that, just a tool. If you love a player who had a poor score, trust your gut. After all, it is your team. I’m just trying to lend a little hand. Enjoy the NFL draft and good luck in your rookie drafts!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
