Rookie Bust Mock Draft: Round Two

Dan Meylor

ajayi

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Most rookie mock drafts you see like to focus on the strengths of each prospect selected – this isn’t one of those drafts.

At this point in the process, dynasty owners are used to hearing about the impressive arm strength of Jameis Winston, the exceptional burst and agility of Melvin Gordon and the incredible hands and route running of Amari Cooper. For good reason, we like to focus on the positives in each prospect’s game and inform our readers why a specific player will propel your fantasy team to glory. In this mock however, we’ll try to throw up the red flag on some of the weaknesses that our favorite rookies possess and explain which ones have the most potential to “bust.”

To be clear, we’re not necessarily proclaiming a player as a bust in this exercise. We just want to shine a light on some of the things that should concern dynasty owners going into their drafts.

There was only one rule for who was eligible for this three-round mock draft. To make sure all players taken were relevant dynasty picks, any player selected had to have been taken in the first three rounds of any DLF rookie mock draft during this off-season.

We’ve already covered round one, so let’s continue with round two.

2.01 – Kevin White, WR West Virginia

Ryan McDowell’s thoughts: White is already being anointed by many as a top 15-20 dynasty wide receiver and some consider him the best option for the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts. While his measurables and physical traits are impressive, I’m at least a little concerned about this “one year wonder.”

My thoughts: Although I’m a fan of White, the cost of adding him has risen far too quickly for my liking. Due to an impressive combine many have even anointed him as the top wideout in this draft class over Amari Cooper. I just can’t get on board with that thinking. White is an excellent prospect and should be taken near the top of round one in rookie drafts. But dynasty owners considering taking him over Cooper should reconsider.

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2.02 – David Johnson, RB Northern Iowa

George Kritikos’ thoughts: Johnson is fine as a prospect, but he is another player who has seen his dynasty rookie draft position rise significantly. He has limited experience against top defenses and has struggled with seeing the open holes. It doesn’t help that he goes down easy on contact for a 225 pound running back. I like his receiving skills and he measured well but it hasn’t translated completely to the field. He is going about a round earlier than where I would be willing to gamble on a player whose value relies on his athletic profile.

My thoughts: On top of the concerns George mentioned, I also question Johnson’s vision at times. Consistently looking for the cutback rather than just taking the first hole that is presented to him, he often leaves yards on the field because he has to stop and start too often. It also becomes exhausting watching him getting taken down in the open field as he’s regularly tackled by a single defender. With questionable burst at the line of scrimmage, vision that gets him into trouble at times and an inability to break tackles, there’s certainly a chance Johnson is being over drafted by dynasty owners.

2.03 – Jay Ajayi, RB Boise State

Doug Green’s thoughts: I know everyone loves Ajayi, but I see a player who is bad at pass protection and likes to bounce it outside too much.

My thoughts: Although Ajayi has quick feet, impressive burst and good power, there are parts of his game that should give dynasty owners pause before selecting him in the first round of rookie drafts. Despite his acceleration and a great jump cut, he chooses at times to dance in the backfield while waiting for a big hole to generate rather than taking a crease and getting what is there. His fumbling as well as his massive workload in 2014 should also be on the minds of dynasty owners when considering Ajayi. Although he has RB1 potential, there are also reasons to question if he’ll ever reach it.

2.04 – Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State

Brian Bulmer’s thoughts: I think Strong is a polarizing player. He has characteristics of a WR1. His prototypical size and ability to win with his size makes him a great prospect. He has great speed with a 4.44 forty at the combine and he seems to win at the catch point. Issues include finishing third lowest in the three cone drill at the combine. His agility scores were low and he occasionally struggles getting off of the line and creating separation in his routes. It will be interesting to see how Strong’s skill set transfers to the NFL.

My thoughts: Polarizing indeed. Strong has a lot of what teams look for in a number one receiver. He stands 6’2”, weighing 217 pounds with an impressive 42 inch vertical and good speed. What comes along with all that is a pair of inconsistent hands and a route runner that needs to improve – particularly on routes coming back to the quarterback. Although there are a lot of things that need improvement with Strong, dynasty owners should keep in mind that he’s improved substantially every year that he spent at Arizona State and certainly is an ascending prospect. He carries a lot a risk which gives him bust potential, but Strong also carries the upside of a WR1.

2.05 – Devin Smith, WR Ohio State

My thoughts: Smith is moving up draft boards because of his burst off the line of scrimmage and ability to get on top of defenses. He’s drawn comparisons to DeSean Jackson. Those comparisons should stop. Although he has impressive wheels and has shown the ability to beat college corners, Smith is incredibly raw as a route runner, only excelling at the fly pattern and drag routes while at Ohio State. He’ll need to become a much more proficient route runner and improve his hands greatly to get remotely close to being mentioned in the same breath as Jackson. With all that said, in the third round of any rookie draft, there are worse lottery tickets than Smith.

2.06 – David Cobb, RB Minnesota

Nathan Powell’s thoughts: Cobb is one of those players who I don’t really see “busting” per se, but when I see people talk about him in the early-mid 2nd, I just don’t really get it at that price. Cobb will need a good situation a la Zac Stacy his rookie year, but even in the perfect situation I don’t think he is any sort of long term option.

My thoughts: While I like Cobb, I agree with Nathan that he’s being over drafted in the second round of rookie drafts. He’s a good power runner who makes good cuts and breaks some tackles, but he’s not a dynamic back who will be a full time or even lead tailback due to some restrictions. More than anything else, he lacks quickness to be a perimeter runner in the NFL and while he has adequate hands and can grind out yards after the catch, he’s not a playmaker as a receiver. That all equals a committee back who is likely to be given six to eight touches a game but could fill in for an injured starter. Dynasty owners can get a similar back with just as much upside a couple rounds later with Zach Zenner from South Dakota State or Cameron Artis-Payne from Auburn.

2.07 – Karlos Williams, RB Florida State

Jacob Feldman’s thoughts: Williams just might be the Isaiah Crowell of this year’s draft class. He has shown flashes of being exactly what you want in an NFL running back. He has the size, strength, and agility to be what NFL teams want. But those flashes have been rather infrequent, so much so that he lost time to younger players this year when he was supposed to shine. Toss in some off the field issues, and you get a player who could be a steal or could completely flop. Make sure you factor in the risk when drafting him.

My thoughts: Instead of Jacobs’s comparison to Crowell, I see a lot of Packers backup James Starks when I watch Williams. Both are tall, both run very upright, and both show good burst through the hole for their size. On the contrary though, both take unnecessary hits because they choose not to run behind their pads and both lack the wiggle to make defenders miss in the open field. As for Williams future, I see it as similar to Starks’ – as a backup. Many like Williams as a third round pick in rookie drafts which is where he’s going, but I see better options.

2.08 – DeVante Parker, WR Louisville

Aaron Swinderman’s thoughts: This hurts to write, but people see DeVante’s size and his numbers throughout college and expect him to dominate. I really like him and think he can be very good, but he wasn’t as fast as he was prior to his foot injury and who knows if that will continue to be a problem. Add in that he already lacked top end speed and you can see some of my concerns.

My thoughts: Another impressive wide receiver prospect, Parker has the size (6’3”, 209 lbs.) and speed (4.45 40 time) to do some damage on Sundays but lacked consistency throughout his college career. His route running hasn’t been sharp at times, particularly after the foot injury, and for a deep threat he lacks burst at the line of scrimmage to put NFL corners on their heels. Parker’s strength in college was at the point of the catch, regularly out jumping smaller defensive backs for jump balls. If he can continue to win those battles against bigger, faster defensive backs, he’ll have no problem adjusting to the NFL game. If not, he could struggle at the next level.

2.09 – Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon

Jeff Beran’s thoughts: When you consider Mariota as an NFL prospect, the only thing one has to worry about is how much effect the Oregon “system” had on him. Ideal size? Check. Intangibles in spades? Check. Dual threat ability? Check. Elite production? Check. Mariota is easily my favorite quarterback in this year’s rookie class, but if he gets drafted by a team that wants to turn him into a traditional drop-back passer, I could see him struggling to adapt. Don’t get trigger happy and draft him too early in your rookie draft unless he somehow gets reunited with Chip Kelly.

My thoughts: Like all quarterbacks, Mariota will have to learn how to read a defense, go through progressions and deliver an accurate, on time pass. It may seem crazy, but Mariota wasn’t forced to do any of that with any regularity at Oregon. Instead, he relied on the system to tell him where to throw the ball and when that didn’t work out, he depended on his athleticism to get him out of trouble. Mariota is a rare talent at the quarterback position but he has average arm strength and must learn how to run a professional offense. While it’s easy to become infatuated with his upside as dynasty owners, we all should keep in mind that there will likely be a steep learning curve for the former Duck.

2.10 – Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana

Scott Peak’s thoughts: Coleman doesn’t have measurables as he missed the scouting combine with a foot injury. Speed doesn’t seem to be a problem. I don’t see much wiggle or lateral movement to his game. He is a north/south runner and I’m not sure he has all the traits to be anything more than a back-up in the NFL. I just don’t see much special to his game other than pure speed, and that doesn’t always work out in the NFL (see Darren McFadden). I doubt he will be a consistently productive fantasy option.

My thoughts: Patience, patience, patience. Because of Coleman’s impressive burst and eagerness to break big runs, he often outran blocks, not allowing himself time to scan the field and look for rushing lanes. While that allowed him to bust some big runs in the Big Ten, it could be problem on Sundays. When it comes to being a pass catcher, Coleman didn’t always look natural. Although he showed good hands, he consistently looked uncomfortable as a receiver which forced him to hold back after the catch. A tailback with a good speed/power combination and above average hands, he’ll have to attack the defense as a receiver just as he does as a runner to unlock his full potential at the next level.

2.11 – Duron Carter, WR Indianapolis Colts

Jeff Miller’s thoughts: It’s a bit tough for me to rag too much on Carter as I rather like him as a prospect at his current price. Though the things I do take umbrage with are potential biggies, namely the scary reports on his work ethic and attitude. It seems as though those days may be behind him, but we’ve seen what sort of issues wayward souls can cause (*cough* Josh Gordon *cough*). From an on field perspective, I wish Carter was either faster or bigger. At 6’5″/205 lbs. with a 40 in the 4.58-4.6 range he is both a bit lean and a bit slow. The final potential stumbling block is the depth chart. Carter is behind the more established Andre Johnson and T.Y. Hilton and the more talented Donte Moncrief. He also has to compete with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen for targets. Carter has the talent to be in the NFL, but with the Colts so lightly invested, he may not get a chance to prove it this year or next.

My thoughts: Because he’s available in many rookie drafts, Carter is worth mentioning here. Jeff highlighted the uphill climb Carter has to see the field in Indianapolis which is important to consider, but most significant thing he mentioned is the concerns about Carter’s work ethic and motivation on the field which was part of the reason he went undrafted in 2013. If he’s relegated to the fifth wide receiver role in Indy, it’s worth wondering if those questions will rise again or if Carter’s reputation as a diva will once again rear its ugly head.

2.12 – Jesse James, TE Penn State

Eric Hardter’s thoughts: There’s a decent chance James is the second tight end selected after Maxx Williams and as much as I like Penn State, I think that’s too high. He plays soft for his size and isn’t nearly the blocker he should be, and in my opinion doesn’t offer much in the way of short-area quickness and burst. If I don’t get Williams, I’m probably punting the position this year.

My thoughts: James flashed as a potentially dangerous vertical tight end at Penn State, but there are far too many question marks surrounding him to be considered anything more than a late round flyer or free agent addition for dynasty owners. The more glaring weaknesses in James’ game are his lack of burst off the line of scrimmage and his inconsistent effort. Regularly having his route slowed to a halt due to a press linebacker jamming him at the snap, James couldn’t be relied upon to be where he was supposed to be on a regular basis. When he was able to get off the line, he’d get caught running half-speed routes when he wasn’t the primary receiver only to realize the quarterback had been looking his way. A frustrating player to watch, James has a relatively high ceiling but brutally low floor. I’d much rather take a shot on Clive Walford from Miami as a developmental tight end.

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dan meylor