IDP Dynasty Duel: Defensive Linemen
We are picking up our IDP rankings debate in round two, which covers the defensive linemen. In round one, Eric Breeze gave some compelling reasons to move some linebackers in the rankings. His prowess in evaluating linebackers netted him the win in round one. I am hoping to tie things up with a win on the defensive linemen discrepancies. Our personal rankings per position from mid-April are in parentheses.
Fletcher Cox, DE PHI
Coleman (7): Cox ranked as the third defensive end in run stop percentage according to PFF. In the pass rush department, his 39 quarterback hurries were only second to the great JJ Watt for 3-4 defensive ends. I expect his fantasy relevant stats to eventually catch up to his ability. He is also a free agent in 2016, which may allow him to find a better defensive fit. Dynasty outlooks for 24-year old defensive linemen do not get much better than this.
Breeze (25+): Right after I posted my rankings, I tweeted my top 5 snubs at each position. Cox was the first snub at DL, so he is my DL26. I think he is a great player, I just want to see more in the box score from him. He also had the 2nd most snaps for a 3-4 DE last yr. It was tough to cut down to 25 DL so in hindsight I think he got wrongly shorted. I will likely move him into my tier 6 (about DL20) with Corey Liuget since they are very similar in a lot of ways.
Jurell Casey, DE TEN
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Breeze (12): I’m a big Casey fan. His sack numbers dropped from 2013 to 2014, but I contribute that more to bad luck. His hurries stayed about the same and he improved in run defense. Also, with Morgan and Orakpo on the edges in Tennessee, he is going get less double teams. It is very hard to block this guy with just one offensive lineman. Add in the fact the Titans may draft Leonard Williams to play on the opposite side? I’m drooling just thinking about it.
Coleman (24): Breeze sent me back into NFL rewind and the advanced stats with this ranking. Casey looks like an arbitrage play on Cox. Both are athletic, three hundred pounders that grade out very well. The only real issue is that Casey barely grades out positive as a run stopper at PFF, which is an improvement from his negative grade in 2013. This is a little bit of a concern in a 3-4 defensive end, although his pass rush skills are elite. I concede a mid-teen ranking is more appropriate.
Malik Jackson, DE DEN
Coleman (13): Jackson was the only 4-3 DE to grade out above 12.0 in run stopping and pass rushing at PFF. If we extrapolate his stats to a full complement of snaps, he would have 55 tackles and eight sacks. He slated to be the starter at RDE next year with the Broncos moving to more of 3-4, although I expect it to really be more of a hybrid front. As a reminder this is 290+ pounder that runs a sub 7.4 three cone, which is faster than rookie hype sensation Dante Fowler.
Breeze (25+): EC gave me the victory on Casey and I think I have to repay the favor here. I’m not ready to put Malik Jackson in my top 25 but he wasn’t even on my radar (like outside my top 50) before seeing EC’s ranking on him….now he is. He had average numbers but this was with only about 60% snaps. I’m guessing this was due to Von Miller putting his hand in the dirt on third down and pushing Malik to the sideline. Well, with Wade Phillips in town, I don’t see that being a problem anymore. Malik should start at 3-4 DE and is a very sneaky pick for top 20 DL numbers. Well played Coleman.
Charles Johnson, DE CAR
Breeze (15): Charles Johnson doesn’t have huge 15+ sack upside but he does have 52.5 in the last five years. He will give you a couple forced fumbles per year as well. He isn’t a very sexy pick given the lack of elite upside and will be 29 in July but with how scarce DL has become, he is a valued player in my opinion. However, given his age and how he can give you a big goosegg a couple times a year, I think he needs to be bumped down a bit especially in more tackle heavy leagues.
Coleman (25+): Johnson has never been a good run stopper and he is very big play dependent. He will also be 29 before the start of the season and his sacks have declined steadily over the past few years. He is in my top 40 defensive lineman; it is just not where I want to spend top 25 dynasty DL draft capital.
Corey Liuget, DE SD
Breeze (19): Liuget is a good but not great 3-4 DE. However, he puts up very solid tackle numbers. He is very similar to Fletcher Cox. On the field, I think Cox is better, but Liuget has produced a bit more in the box score on 20% less snaps. I have no really good defense for Liuget since I don’t love him. However he has been very productive in two of his first three years so I think he deserves a top 25 spot.
Coleman (25+): Liuget is not ranked for me because we only ranked 25. He is in my top 30, however. My major concern with him is he lacks in the run stopping department. To his credit he has improved each of the last three years. I tend to like five technique players to be plus in run stopping to help create a nice tackle floor. He is a free agent in 2016 and possibly could see a stat uptick if he plays more of three technique with another team. I agree with Breeze that he can be thought of as cheaper arbitrage play for Cox or Casey. He is still outside the top 20 for me, though.
Mike Daniels, DE GB
Coleman (16): Daniels honestly looks a lot like Jurell Casey. Daniels is a much better run stopper but not as good of a pass rusher – he only had six less quarterback hurries than Casey on 230 fewer snaps. I am a sucker for well-rounded players because I think they have a better chance to stay starters for longer. His stats should catch up with his actual ability. Daniels is also a 2016 free agent and a change of scenery could be shot in the arm to his fantasy numbers.
Breeze (25+): Daniels is very much like Fletcher Cox to me. He is a very good player on the field, but hasn’t shown up in the box score – that is a big problem with 3-4 Defensive Ends. Many of them are fantastic players but instead of tackling the ball carrier or sacking the quarterback, they are absorbing double teams to let their teammates get all the fame and glory. Daniels, however, was one of the better 3-4 DEs last year at pressuring the quarterback. He was going to be outside my top 50 like Malik Jackson, but when the DLF IDP team releases updated deeper rankings he will likely be in my top 35-40.
Final Thoughts
Coleman: It is interesting that our major area of contention seemed to be the value of 3-4 defensive ends who are showing more ability than their box score stats indicate. My major mistake in this round was not having Casey high enough. To keep with the boxing metaphor, I think I won this round by decision by just getting in a few more punches. It is safe to say both of us will be tweaking our rankings based on this discussion.
Breeze: Every season it seems like at least one more team transitions to 3-4 defenses – this means high sack upside DL are becoming more and more rare. If you can draft or acquire the top tier Defensive Linemen in IDP it is almost always a good decision. EC opened my eyes to a couple more up and coming Defensive Lineman who will be present on my updated rankings when we increase depth to 50DLs in the near future. Coleman gets the nod in round two given the fact I had my hands at my side while he hit me square in the jaw with Malik Jackson and Mike Daniels.
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- IDP Dynasty Debate: Linebackers - March 1, 2017
- IDP Dynasty Debate: Defensive Line - February 18, 2017
- IDP 20/20: Raekwon McMillan - February 17, 2017
