IDP Dynasty Duel: Linebackers

Eric Coleman

hightower

Editor’s Note: In order to provide even more IDP content, we’re going to be running dynasty duels all week, including linebackers, defensive backs and defensive linemen. Special thanks to two new team members (Eric Coleman and Eric Breeze) for facilitating each of these debates.

Eric Breeze and I are new to the DLF IDP crew. As soon we signed on, we began a race against each other to post our veteran IDP rankings first. While we are on the same page with many players, we had vastly different rankings of a few. The tussle over the differing players spilled out onto twitter, until we agreed to take the battle to print. This debate has taken the form of three round playoff. Here in round one we will dispute the most divisive linebackers according to our latest rankings. Our personal rankings per position from mid-April are in parentheses.

Dont’a Hightower, OLB/ILB NE

Coleman (7): I admit this ranking is a little high, but Hightower is extremely well-rounded. He is the only inside linebacker at PFF to grade out above 5.0 at rush, coverage, and run stopping. He actually graded out above 7.0 in all those categories. His tackle floor and sack upside makes him somewhat scoring format insulated. At 25 years old, he will be a starter for a long time, which is what we really want in a dynasty linebacker. I might be too high, but I think the IDP community is just too low on him currently.

Breeze (27): I like Hightower, I really do. Top 10 just seems way too high to me. I’ve preached it on Twitter that when healthy I think Hightower/Jamie Collins are going to be the Patriots every down backers and I back it up with my low ranking of Jerod Mayo. I still have concerns though. Even with Mayo out, he was pretty big play dependent last year. When he did not have a sack, he underperformed, especially in the playoffs.

Jerell Freeman, ILB IND

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Breeze (18): Freeman is one of my most underrated IDP players. He was top 20 in his first NFL season in 2012. He proceeded to post a top 10 season in 2013, but he was hampered by hamstring injuries in 2014 that really slowed him down. D’Qwell Jackson also bit into his stats. He had 9+ tackles in 8 of his last 11 games. EC brings up a bunch of good points, however, I have preached Freeman the last 2 months on twitter and I think I need to stick to my guns. I’m fairly confident he will give top 25 LB numbers in 2015.

Coleman (48): Freeman is a good example of why I find IDP infuriating sometimes. He is an outstanding coverage linebacker and ball hawk; he gets ton of opportunities because of a bad defense. On the other hand, he was sixth highest in missed tackles for inside linebackers. He was also ranked the 41st inside linebacker in tackling efficiency. The hard truth is Freeman will be a 29-year old, one dimensional inside linebacker. I love Freeman for redraft, but it is not where I want to invest in dynasty. As the Colts defense gets better, I think his tackles will fall to more normal levels.

Brandon Marshall, OLB DEN

Coleman (19): I get that Danny Trevathan is the better run stopper, although Marshall is not really that much of a downgrade. He also is outstanding in coverage and a better pass rusher. It is worth noting that he ranked as the top linebacker in tackling efficiency at PFF last year. I will take the Denver linebacker who is more versatile as better chance to be a starter for a longer time.

Breeze (38): “The other Brandon Marshall” had a great year in 2014. I will not argue that. I’m just not 100% ready to buy in. I think Trevathan is a better player, especially in the run game. Marshall is adequate against the run but excels in coverage. Also, we should not forget the scheme change in Denver. Can Marshall excel in a 3-4 with an uncovered Offensive Guard in front of him? I’m not so sure he can.

Telvin Smith, OLB JAX

Breeze (11): This guy can flat out ball. It took a Paul Posluszny injury to open the door for Telvin in his rookie campaign, but he averaged 10.3 total tackles per game from week 12 on when he was given an every down role. He may be undersized but has perfect skillset for WLB. I can’t help but compare him to Lavonte David.

Coleman (33): It is a wonderful thing when someone you respect sends you back to the tape and the advanced stats. Breeze got me here – I have been sleeping on Smith. The David comparison is spot on, especially if we extrapolate Smith’s stats to 900 snaps. I’m a little concerned about how thin he is at 6’3” and 217 pounds. In my next set of rankings, Smith will be found much higher.

Keenan Robinson, ILB WAS

Breeze (12): In his first year as a starter, Keenan Robinson cracked the 100 tackle milestone in only 13 games. He is a good blitzer and solid tackler. He is what people hoped Perry Riley could be. I guess I could bump him down a bit due to injuries concerns but I still like him as a dynasty LB2.

Coleman (47): Honestly, I did not dig deep enough on Robinson. On the surface he grades out poorly in run stopping at PFF. Although, when you look closer, he was very solid in tackling efficiency and run stopping percentage. On film, he has strong tackling form and his instincts make him look faster than his 4.77 wheels. With his youth, ability, and opportunity he deserves to be ranked higher.

Sio Moore, OLB OAK

Breeze (14): I’m pretty surprised by your ranking of Moore. This kid is electric. He has elite IDP LB potential. His athleticism is off the charts. I am a little concerned with injuries. He had that scary neck strain in preseason last yr and is coming off hip surgery but I haven’t seen any alarming reports of setbacks. Regardless, this guy is definitely worth the risk in my opinion.

Coleman (46): Moore is a good pass rusher for a 4-3 will linebacker. He also is a nice run stopper with strong tackling efficiency. On the other hand, he was poor in coverage over the last year and his tackling efficiency plummets on passing plays. I think Breeze has a solid point. Taking into account Moore’s potential and what he has flashed, he deserves a higher ranking. Although, coverage holes and injury concerns should be taken into account.

Aldon Smith, OLB SF

Breeze (37): This is a tough one for me. I totally understand why you are lower on him, however, it’s really hard for me to drop this player any further. His only year with full snaps he had 19.5 sacks. He had 14 sacks his rookie year on less than 650 snaps, that’s mind blowing. Yes, we all know he has problems that can’t be ignored….but neither can his sack potential. With all this in mind, if Aldon was not a top 10 LB in 2012 in your league, I would totally understand putting him on your “DO NOT DRAFT” list. The linebacker position is so deep and he cannot be trusted as a foundation piece of an IDP defense.

Coleman (50+): Aaron Lynch has rendered Aldon Smith or Ahmad Brooks expendable. Smith as cap causality over the off season was a legitimate possibility. He ended up restructuring his deal to “bet on himself.” Due to a glitch in the system I was not able to rank Lynch, but I would have had him above 37. Lynch is not as good as Smith pass rushing, but he is not far off especially on the left side. Lynch betters Smith in the area of tackling efficiency as well. Smith is a 2016 free agent and a knuckle head off the field. I would have ranked him in the fifties with deeper rankings. He might be betting on himself, but I am not investing a lot on that bet.

Gerald Hodges, OLB MIN

Coleman (25): Hodges just outplayed Chad Greenway in 2014. He ended up with nearly 500 snaps in 2014 due to injuries with Anthony Barr and Greenway. I think Greenway could still be cut or traded before the season gets under way. Honestly, Hodges might just flat out steal his job. Ranking him 25 might be a little high, but I really want everyone to take notice and get in now while he is still cheap.

Breeze (50+): Hodges was just a casualty of only ranking 50 deep. If you follow me on twitter you know I love this guy. I’m an Iowa alum who has tons of respect for Chad Greenway, but the end is near. It may already be here and he just can’t admit it. Hodges is the WLB of the future in Minny and I’m sad that it looks Greenway will block him one more year. The benefit? Stash Hodges for cheap now and reap the upside next year.

Final Thoughts

Coleman: Breeze won this round by a TKO with three major knock downs. I will be adjusting my rankings of Telvin Smith, Keenan Robinson, and Sio Moore. His prowess evaluating linebackers really shows here. It was great to have the impetus to go back and revaluate some players. At this point in time, I am feeling good that I will take the win in round two as we cover defensive linemen. All that will set us up nicely for a round three finale with the defensive backs.

Breeze: I will admit I do not plan on adjusting my linebacker rankings much. I will also admit that I believe LB is my strongest position of evaluation. However, I do think I may need to reevaluate my rankings of high risk LBs such as Aldon Smith, Daryl Washington and Jadeveon Clowney/Vontaze Burfict (microfracture surgery). The upside is immense, but at a position of so much depth there may be better and safer options. I’m also very thankful to have someone on the DLF team that is also on #TeamHodges. Stay tuned for Round 2 when we debate Defensive Linemen!

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eric coleman
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