Rookies in the Startup: Yes or No?

Nathan Powell

cooper

It is a decision every commissioner/league has to make when a new league is being formed. Should rookies be included in the startup draft, or should there be a separate rookie draft? This is a rare occasion when Ryan and I disagree, so I proposed a dynasty debate on the topic. I think it is better to have rookies separate from the startup, while Ryan thinks they should be included.

Argument for Separate Rookie Draft

There are a variety of ways to go about drafting rookies in the startup year and how the rookie draft order is composed. I’m going to go over a few of the ways I have done it in different leagues.

My favorite way to go about forming the rookie draft order is drafting rookie draft slots in the startup. What this means is, you use a pick in the startup to pick a draft slot, with each team ending the draft with one draft slot. As an example, in a recent industry startup, DLF Writer Russell Clay selected the rookie draft slot 1.01 with the 1.11 pick in the startup, giving him the first pick in all 10 rounds of this years Rookie/Free agent draft, on the other side of the strategy, Zach Bahner settled for the 1.12 rookie draft slot, but it only cost him his last pick in the startup. This setup provides an interesting element of strategy during the startup and guarantees everyone leaves the startup with rookie draft picks, which they will make or trade before/during the rookie draft.

[inlinead]Another thing I’ve seen is making each individual rookie pick just like a player, so you are debating between Randall Cobb or the 1.01 rookie pick, or Alfred Morris or the 2.04 rookie pick. This element allows for teams to load up on rookie picks if that is their strategy, while also still making it a more tradeable asset, because a certain rookie pick will always have more possible suitors than a specific player.

So what’s the big deal?

The main reason for my opinion? It is simple, I think the two drafts being separate creates more trades in the weeks and months after the startup, which is definitely a good thing at the start of a league, particularly if the owners are unfamiliar with each others’ playing/trading styles. When rookies are involved in the startup, whether it be auction or draft, I feel like more often than not, people get the players they want and are targeting. When they are separate, the time between the two drafts is a great time for trade movement as people try to position themselves to acquire their favorite rookies. Like Adam Harstad talked about on a recent DLF Podcast, the 1.01 will always be more valuable than any individual rookie, if half the league values Amari Cooper as the 1.01 and half value Todd Gurley as the 1.01, as soon as the pick is made, whoever it is, the pick loses market value in the league because only half considered that player worth the 1.01.  So, in conclusion, I think that separating the two drafts creates more trading and more fun and if you don’t like trading and fun, what are you playing for?

Argument for Including Rookies in Startup

For me, this issue is all a matter of timing. Once the dynasty off-season begins, many are still feeling the fever of the NFL season and are anxious to jump into a new startup dynasty league right away, long before the NFL Draft determines where the rookies will be playing in the upcoming season. This is where the new league faces the important decision Nathan mentioned. After all, any startup draft held after the NFL Draft should always include rookies, considering their destinations are known at that time.

While Nathan presented some excellent alternatives, he avoided the most typical option many leagues use, and the one I have the biggest argument against when it comes to handling rookies and the startup draft. While some leagues are moving to a system where rookie draft picks are drafted as part of the startup draft, the most popular option for those leagues drafting early is to hold two separate drafts with the rookie draft using the inverse draft order from the startup draft. This means the team holding the 1.01 startup draft pick will automatically receive the 1.12 rookie slot. On the other hand, the team drafting at the end of the first round will be making the first selection in the rookie draft, held later in the off-season. This leads us to my biggest complaint with this system and that is one team receiving two of the top thirteen picks in the startup draft and then adding the top ranked rookie, who often holds a second round startup value himself. Meanwhile, the owner of the once prestigious 1.01 startup pick is left with just a lone top 24 player once you factor in the rookies.

Let’s look at some recent examples of how this could play out. Looking at a couple of competitive leagues filled with many friends of DLF, the team holding the 1.12/2.01 startup draft selected Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown at the corner of a 2014 draft held in early April. He followed that up by selecting Sammy Watkins with the 1.01 rookie pick. How those players performed in 2014 is really meaningless since we are focusing on the player value at the time of the draft.

Looking back at April 2013 dynasty ADP, Allen (15), Brown (21) and Watkins (22) gave this team a nice head start on his competition.

The team holding the top overall pick chose Josh Gordon (3) and then made some trades, but I’ll focus on the picks that were made in his next slots. The 2.12 pick was Zac Stacy (29) and the 1.12 rookie pick was Davante Adams (98). Granted, the value of those players has changed dramatically in the past year, but there’s still a huge difference between three players with an average ADP of 19 and a trio averaging 43.

Drafting rookies prior to the NFL Draft is not just about avoiding the issues that can arise from this unfair system. Devy leagues and college football in general are becoming more popular every year and dynasty owners often have a good feel for the talent entering the league, even if the eventual situation is still unknown. Many dynasty players, myself included, enjoy the risk and challenge that comes along with adding these players to my team before all of the facts are known. Of course, that doesn’t always work out as we are reminded by running backs Ka’Deem Carey and Lache Seastrunk – both high draft picks in the spring rookie and startup drafts held before the NFL Draft. On the other hand, many players see their value skyrocket as a result of a high draft slot or a favorable landing spot, or both. Just last year, players like Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin were all being selected in the seventh round and beyond in pre-season startup drafts and all saw their value rise following the NFL Draft.

As I mentioned earlier, Nathan presented some fair alternatives to leagues who want that early start, but I don’t feel comfortable drafting rookies prior to the NFL Draft and I would implore you and your league to try one of these rather than the archaic “inverse startup draft order” which gets the league off to an unbalanced start.

[ad5]

nathan powell
Latest posts by Nathan Powell (see all)