Dynasty Trade Tells, Part One

Eric Burtzlaff Posted On April 17, 2015

poker

Editor’s Note: This article is by a new DLF writer, Eric Burtzlaff. Many of you follow him on twitter @dynastytrades and we’re excited to get him on board here at DLF.

What is a Dynasty Tell?
An unintentional action or series of actions done that give a window into their personal player values and/or how they run their franchise.

If you follow my @dynastytrades timeline, most of you likely don’t know I was a professional poker player for three years. I’ve picked up countless tells from the very minor to the downright massive. Right now, you are probably picturing me in sunglasses sitting at the table in a turtle neck and hoodie over my head. Funny story about my poker professional career, I played online almost exclusively.

Whoops, did I just change what you are picturing? Did I turn into an overweight guy in sweat pants eating an entire bag of doritos? I bet you aren’t even sure what the heck a “tell” looks like online. You are likely thinking one of two things: 1) what tells could there be online? 2) I’m done reading this… there’s no such thing as tells online, like ever!

If you are camp #2, I am really hoping you are in my leagues and please feel free to stop reading now. Bye bye, we will miss you.

If you are in camp #1, let’s do this thing.

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Ok, great, Eric. You made money with online poker tells, but, uh… this is your first DLF article. Did anyone mention to you that DLF is about football? Yeah, yeah, let’s get to football. There are a surprising number of online tells that translate easily into dynasty football leagues on a daily basis. Better yet, most players aren’t even aware they are translating information to the league.

Having a mental edge on your opponents and knowing their weaknesses is insanely important in dynasty yet something that most people don’t invest any time or consideration into. I’m going to harp on two of these many trading “tells” in this article:

Hilariously bad trade offers:

Being the self-proclaimed re-tweeter of #dynastytrades on Twitter, I see a lot of individuals getting really upset about the bad offers they get in their leagues. I’m talking hilariously bad offers like Marshawn Lynch for the 1.01 and Jamaal Charles-type. Worse yet, I see people berating guys who make them these bad offers via e-mail or twitter. Let me derail the article right here.

If you are that ego-driven guy who loves to berate the “bad” players in your league for “insulting your dynasty intelligence,” make it a serious point in your leagues from hereon to never berate a leaguemate. I’ll write a full article someday about “tank tapping” but for the time being, take my word. Be the bigger man, and say “thanks for the offer, but no thanks.” It will make you more money (seriously), and make your dog love you more (your dog doesn’t want you to be a jerk).

So, what information is this really bad trade offer giving you that you can use to your advantage? There are two different conclusions we derive about the player in this situation.

Assumption 1: “This person is new to dynasty, hasn’t done his homework, and ultimately, doesn’t understand player value”. If I feel this is the case, I will put this player in my notes as a “beginner” in the league. Perhaps, he’s super high on Mike Evans and doesn’t understand that 3 end of bench players aren’t worth a 21-year old WR1.

Exploiting this player: One of the keys to exploiting most people in trading is understanding this general premise – most people make offers they think, on some level, are fair. So maybe he’s high on Evans, but he’s low on an underperforming (or better yet, injured) dynasty asset, such as Brandin Cooks. Make him roughly the same offer for three of your big-named end of bench guys or maybe a flash in the pan player. Something that might look appealing to this player would be something like: Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and Larry Donnell for Cooks and a future 2^nd. This is a trade you can pull off with this type of player and exploit them using their own medicine. Disclaimer: Obviously, this doesn’t fly now that Cooks value is roughly equal to 17 2015 1sts. Another note about this type of player: the values they understand the least in the dynasty world are draft picks. Try to have them throw in future draft picks with every deal. They likely haven’t been in dynasty long enough to understand that 2016 1sts are still 1sts.

Assumption 2: “This player is risk adverse to a fault.” This means that the player is making you the offer because parting with 2 WR2’s and another asset to get a WR1 is scary! As a savvy dynasty owner, staying somewhat risk adverse is actually a pretty profitable trait, but avoiding a low price tag because of boom-bust weeks or some previous injuries is not profitable. As an owner, you must balance your risk-aversion with your high-upside roster spots.

Exploiting this player: Every trait in poker has an unintended consequence built into it. Trading in dynasty football is no different. So higher risk assets are not something this player values, we need to target those types of situations on his roster. Unfortunately, his risk aversion likely means he doesn’t have TY Hilton on his team so there’s likely not going to be a player like that you can steal from his roster. I tend to target this leaguemate to overpay for my proven veterans who are over the hill. For example, I would try to get a future first from them for a 33-year old Andre Johnson. Their draft picks tend to be viewed as “scary unknowns,” and this is another focal point of my trades with these players. I will offer player for player deals I view as even and throw in a future 2^nd or even a future 1^st on their side. There’s countless ways to exploit a risk-adverse player but focus your efforts around getting a medium floor, minimal-upside guy off your roster with this leaguemate.

This tell teaches us a valuable lesson in tells: Two people doing the same tell doesn’t necessarily mean the same weakness. You will be responsible for distinguishing what type of leaguemate is on the other end of that trade through other information they give you.

Twitter/ Football Blurb Over-Reacter

Every one of my leagues has this guy in it and he shows his tell every single time you see a league e-mail that he’s instantly picked up a player right no one has ever heard of after they read a high profile tweet – this guy doesn’t just work on the waiver wire, he’s also out offering trades the second news comes out about a player. This player thinks he’s getting extra value by being so vigilant. While there is minor value to picking up these players so quickly during first come first serve, most people don’t realize what these actions are really telling the league.

What information is the guy who instantly picks up a previously unknown player or NFL life-long 3^rd stringer giving you that you can use to your advantage? This player makes emotional decisions.

Emotional decision-making is one of the largest flaws that exist in both poker and fantasy football. We’ve all made a bad decision in a trade based on some overreaction to information that came out that day. It’s how you learn. Most of us learned long ago to stop dropping our vital team depth for pipe dreams in the likes of a Brandon Williams. The player who is making these broadcasted knee-jerk decisions likely hasn’t yet learned this valuable lesson yet.

Exploiting this player: First, add this player to your league notes and shop the “new shiny twitter objects” to this player. Oh, Denarius Moore went to the Bengals?! Offer him to the over-reacter for a late second round pick. It works the other direction, too! The Colts pickup Andre Johnson in free agency? I’ll bet over-reacter is instantly low on his Donte Moncrief share. Time to put together a low-ball offer for Moncrief. Exploiting this player is as simple as being persistent with dangling new shiny objects in front of him for real dynasty value. They will bite eventually. Another common mistake these types of players make is being to short-term oriented and therefore disregarding the value of injured players on their rosters. If in a rebuild, target the injured-reserve of his team.

There are countless other online tells you can use against your dynasty opponents and these are just the first two that I decided to highlight. I will leave you with this piece of advice – everyone has a flaw in their game that can be exploited if you are perceptive enough. I’d venture to say no one is playing mistake-free Dynasty Football (not yet at least). Your job is to pay attention and use your understanding of the game to your advantage over your opponents. The difference between championship and the 1.06 can be one good move you made by being perceptive to the habits of your leaguemates.

You owe it to that trophy not be mentally lazy.

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