The Dynasty Doctor: Andre Ellington and Stevan Ridley

Scott Peak

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Editor’s Note: Injuries are a huge part of winning and losing each year in fantasy leagues. Staying abreast of the injury situations is key as knowing what to expect from your players health-wise in the short term can help you make educated decisions in managing your team. Lucky for us, we have a Doctor in the house. Dr. Scott Peak is an ABPN board certified neurologist and neuro-oncologist. He is also a dynasty football addict and huge friend of Dynasty League Football. He’s excited to lend his expertise in medicine with hopes he may help the DLF Team and its followers better understand medical conditions and injuries that may impact NFL players and dynasty football owners.  

In this edition of Dynasty Doctor, we received questions from Richard on Stevan Ridley and Manuel  on Andre Ellington. Richard asked how Ridley’s injury might impact his 2015 production, how his recovery has gone and his chances of earning a starting job with the New York Jets. Manuel asked about Ellington’s injury history, age, and whether he is above average or average injury risk for a running back. Those are both excellent questions and we’ll start with Ridley.

[inlinead]Ridley sustained a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and medial collateral ligament (MCL) in October 2014. He underwent surgery November 18, 2014 to repair his ACL, and posted a picture of himself on Instagram riding a stationary bike 15 days later. As recent as March 2015, Ridley posted a picture of himself running sprints. Needless to say, it seems like his recovery is going well. An MCL injury is typically treated without surgery and shouldn’t be a concern. It may have delayed definitive surgery for the ACL rupture, but given his surgery was mid-November 2014, he should have ample time to recover from surgery. Typical recovery is 6-9 months, but athletes are usually jogging and running straight-line 3-4 months after surgery and that is consistent with Ridley posting an Instagram showing himself sprinting March 2015 (3 months after surgery). All of these data points suggest he is recovering well from surgery, and he stands a good chance of being ready for training camp.

Will Ridley be the starter for the Jets? It’s a tough call right now. Chan Gailey is the offensive coordinator, and he has a history of molding productive offenses from a variety of talent. In 1996, Jerome Bettis managed 320 carries for 1,431 yards and 11 touchdowns. In 1997, Bettis had 375 carries for 1,665 yards and seven touchdowns. Like Bettis, Ridley is more of a two-down thumper with limited receiving skills. Gailey’s history is to rely on primarily one running back, with exception to 2011, when Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both split into each others fantasy production. Whether it be Bettis, Lamar Smith, Emmitt Smith or Spiller, Gailey seems to value the idea of a workhorse running back. If history holds, this can be either good news or bad news for Ridley. Christ Ivory could put up a fight, and he hasn’t had a season under 4 YPC. Ivory quietly finished as the 2014 RB19 in standard scoring formats. I think Ridley is somewhat overrated in fantasy, if that’s even possible. Other than his huge 2012 season, he’s been an average or worse fantasy option. Coming off an ACL/MCL injury, I think the Jets RB job is Ivory’s to lose, so I’m not investing in Ridley. Furthermore, Ridley was signed to a one-year deal, financial terms not disclosed, but I doubt it was a significant amount of money. Ridley has ball-security issues, is a non-factor as a receiver and hasn’t been able to replicate his stellar 2012 season. I’m not investing in him as a dynasty asset and I’m not buying a career resurrection for Ridley in New York.

As for Ellington, perception has certainly changed on his dynasty value. Last year, Ellington was the subject of massive hype. Similar to Jerick McKinnon, the hype on Ellington got out of control and dynasty players were clamoring to secure his services for their teams. Unfortunately, all the optimism came crashing down in 2014, as often happens on overheated assets. Ellington didn’t rush for 100 yards all season, averaged a paltry 1.8 yards after contact (profootballfocus.com) and had just 3.3 YPC despite getting 78% of rushing attempts (games 1 to 13) for the Arizona Cardinals in 2014. Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians called Ellington the focal point of their offense in March 2015 and I don’t believe it. All the talk is on adding Adrian Peterson or spending a top pick on a running back in the NFL Draft. If Ellington is the ‘focal point’ of the Cardinals offense, it’s going to be a long year in Arizona. With talent like Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown on the Cardinals, I can’t see how Arians would think of Ellington as the focal point on offense and I think that’s just coach-speak. Regarding Ellington, Arians was quoted in January 2015 saying he “learned a valuable lesson about not putting too many eggs in one basket,” (revengeofthebirds.com) after Ellington’s foot injury stymied his 2014 offensive plans – that statement seems to contradict his recent quote about Ellington being a ‘focal point’ of their offense. Ellington suffered a litany of injuries in 2014, starting with a torn tendon in his left foot, a hip flexor injury and a hernia that required surgery, ending his 2014 season.

It’s hard to predict injuries and as bad as Ellington’s season was in 2014, it was only one year. I don’t think we have enough evidence to say whether Ellington is at higher risk of injury, but 2014 results weren’t encouraging. It is notable that, despite Ellington only playing two years in the NFL, he is already 26 years old. If you believe the data on RB decline occurring at age 26 (profootballfocus.com, Austin Lee, The Age of Decline – Running backs part 1), then Ellington’s peak years may have already passed.

I’ve always been pessimistic on Ellington’s value in dynasty and last year I felt he was overhyped. I feel the same way about McKinnon, who I think is the subject of media hype that may not translate into fantasy production. I’m not investing in Ellington (or McKinnon) in dynasty leagues.

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