LIVE 2QB PPR Rookie Draft Recap

Jeff Haverlack

perriman
Last year provided me with my first super-flex (2QB) league challenge.  I entered the league primarily for two reasons:  1)  I had yet to take part in a 2QB league and 2)  It would provide interesting content material for our readers with a format gaining popularity.  The only real noteworthy scoring rules in this 14-team league are all touchdowns are worth six points, quarterbacks receive -4 points for interceptions and tight ends receive 1.5 points per reception.  And, of course, need I mention this league performs its rookie draft prior to the NFL draft?

First, a bit of history:

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Heading into our inaugural draft and seeing a number Twitter discussions about the potential of selecting back-to-back quarterbacks in the first two rounds of a Super-Flex league, I decided I was going to take one for the team and do just that.  Picking later (eighth) in the first round and with quarterbacks flying off the board, I wanted to go with one youthful established passer and one youthful significant-upside passer.  In the end, I ended up with Matt Stafford and the utlra-disappointing Colin Kaepernick.  2014 was dismal for Kaep and I didn’t foresee a drop-off like the one he would experience last year.  What followed was an embarrassment of a draft as I attempted a high-risk youth strategy to see if I could build a championship team within three years.  Following the draft, it was obvious that my QB/QB strategy was a failure and my roster was, indeed, risk-filled.  As I stated prior to this year’s rookie draft:  A lame chicken could have pecked out a better roster than what I had assembled.  While I expected my roster to be weak in the first two or three years, I still expected far more than I managed.

Without going into great detail about my roster, my primary players heading into the draft were:

QB

Matthew Stafford
Colin Kaepernick
Kirk Cousins

RB

Darren McFadden
Trent Richardson
Shane Vereen

WR

Sammy Watkins
DeSean Jackson
Eric Decker
Anquan Boldin
Jaron Brown
Jermaine Kearse
Rueben Randle
Rod Streater

TE

Travis Kelce

Uninspiring at best and without a doubt the poorest draft result I ever experienced.  But my main goal was to establish two quarterbacks and a young foundation with a lot of upside, knowing that I would likely have a high pick heading into 2015.  As it turns out, nothing went particularly well and I ended up with the 1.02 in what projects to be a deep draft in 2015.

Strategy

Armed with the 1.02 and a roster badly in need of significant upgrade, I headed into the early April draft knowing that I had to have an upgrade in running back as well as another young receiver to pair with Sammy Watkins.  I wanted to net additional picks in the first round but didn’t have high expectations of being able to accomplish that.  Amari Cooper is still what I believe to be the safest rookie selection in 2015.  Given his skill set, age and position, pairing him with Watkins would make for a long term receiver combination with a lot of upside.  But looking at my running back situation, it was clear I had to take a stab to secure the position.  Considering all points, my top-two priority list was headlined by Todd Gurley followed by Cooper.

As is always the case, just before draft day, things get interesting on the trade front.  I decided to sit back and wait.

Pre-Draft Trades

My patience was rewarded on the eve of the draft with an offer of:

Send:

Eric Decker, WR
Travis Kelce, TE
2015 2.02 (#16 Overall )

Receive:

Calvin Johnson, WR
Delanie Walker, TE

On one hand, I have little need for Megatron.  He likely doesn’t land me in the playoffs unless magic happens with my quarterbacks but stranger things have happened and he’s still only 29.  While some part of me wished to decline as Johnson’s value is falling, a larger part of me knew that his acquisition would be my best chance of netting a package of young players or picks to help along my rebuild.  I accepted the trade without a lot of extra consternation save a bit of work detailed below.  Even if I couldn’t move Calvin, I’d have the Stafford-Johnson combination that could give me a nice advantage on Sundays.

Before I had even selected “Accept,” I was already on the ‘phone’ peddling Megatron to other coaches, many whom I don’t think even knew that I didn’t own him as of yet – this was a risk that I wouldn’t usually take but I wanted to feel out his value before finalizing the trade.  I received enough feedback that provided confidence I could move him for greater value.

Following the acquisition of the aging superstar, I quickly got to work with the coach who showed the most interest.  After many varying of deals, I moved Calvin in the following:

Send:

Calvin Johnson, WR
DeSean Jackson, WR
2016 Second Round Selection

Receive:

2015 1.03
2015 1.14
Allen Robinson, WR

The addition of Allen Robinson will ultimately dictate just how good this deal is in the end.  I was not a big Robinson fan heading into 2014 but was impressed with what he was able to accomplish prior to his injury.  If he can achieve WR2 status in fantasy, even WR3, I have the potential to make things interesting.  I did have to give up DeSean Jackson, a player who has high ceiling weekly potential but ultimately not one who I’m overly high on. Additionally, losing my second round selection in 2016 is material, but my analysis shows that roughly 15% of draft picks in the teens pan out in fantasy.  I’m willing to take that risk.

The addition of 1.14 was important to me as it allowed me to upgrade/replace my lost 2.02 at a spot that I believe is  strategic.  Given the 2QB nature of this format, there was no doubt that both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota would be off the board early, meaning I would get one of the top twelve players not playing quarterback.  As I covet eleven non-quarterback rookies in this draft, the likelihood of getting one of them at the 1.14 was extremely high.

Now heading into the 2015 Rookie Draft, I have the following selections in the first three rounds:

1.02 (#2)
1.03 (#3)
1.14 (#14)
3.02 (#30)

Rookie Draft

I’m going to lay out the first three rounds of the draft here with commentary only following my selection(s) along with a brief recap at the end of each round.  My thoughts will surround the value of the player as to what I believe he can provide my team.  Realize that this selection may not jive with my 2015 rookie rankings for obvious team-need reasons.  Let’s get to the picks:

Round One

01.  Amari Cooper, WR
02.  Todd Gurley, RB

With my team as weak at running back as it is, I really had little choice in my mind.  Gurley is arguably the best talent at the position in recent history, injury concerns aside.  His ACL certainly doesn’t improve his value and I’m rolling the dice a bit with the selection.  Without the 1.03 following, this selection may have been Kevin White.  But having the back-to-back picks as I do, I feel good about the selection.

03.  Kevin White, WR

Would have preferred to have Amari Cooper over White, but it’s splitting hairs.  White has immense upside and likely a higher ceiling but isn’t as polished as Cooper.  Not complaining in the least to have Gurley and White.  Having these top two players is pretty exciting nonetheless.

04.  Jameis Winston, QB
05.  Melvin Gordon, RB
06.  Ameer Abdullah, RB
07.  Marcus Mariota, QB
08.  DeVante Parker, WR
09.  Dorial Green-Beckham, RB
10.  Duke Johnson, RB
11.  Jaelen Strong, WR
12.  Tevin Coleman, RB
13.  Jay Ajayi, RB

14.  Breshad Perriman, WR

Perriman is a high-ceiling, low-floor player without much question.  Ultra-fast and with the ability to stretch the defense while also pulling in difficult receptions, he also struggles with drops, route inefficiency and is raw – I just can’t ignore his dynamic or upside.  I’d like to see him slip into the bottom of the first round in the NFL draft to a team with a winning record and established quarterback leadership.

The wildcard from round one for me is like Perriman at the 1.14.  I started drooling every so slightly as Jay Ajayi slipped to 1.13.  Truth be told, I would have preferred Ajayi by a slight margin, but I love Perriman’s size-speed combination.  As a reminder, being a 2QB league, the rookie passers going early wasn’t a huge surprise.  The selection of Ameer Abdullah was far too high in my opinion but he is a player with a widely varying value heading into the draft.  Following the NFL draft, he’s a player whose value could take an enormous hit.  With the first round now complete, my team is looking VERY young but with a lot of exciting receiver upside given Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman and Boldin mixed in for veteran production.  Even Rod Streater coming back from injury provides upside.  Rueben Randle is a bit of a luxury and I may move him for a young back with future potential.  More on this later.

Round Two

15.  T.J. Yeldon, RB
16.  Maxx Williams, TE
17.  Sammie Coates, WR
18.  David Cobb, RB
19.  Nelson Agholor, WR
20.  Mike Davis, RB
21.  Devin Funchess, WR
22.  Tre McBride, WR
23.  Devin Smith, WR
24.  David Johnson, RB
25.  Phillip Dorsett, WR
26.  Tyler Lockett, WR
27.  Malcolm Brown, RB
28.  Brett Hundley, QB

You may now see why I was willing to move my second round selection this year.  Typically, second round selections in the teens have roughly a 15% likelihood of becoming fantasy producers, a statistic I need to update to include most recent history.  This group does have some upside candidates and I do like the Nelson Agholor selection at #19 and the Phillip Dorsett pick at #25.  Devin Funchess has a lot of potential and I prefer him as a tight end prospect over that of a receiver.  Tight end Maxx Williams has upside, but rookie tight ends are notorious for taking multiple years before sniffing consistent fantasy production.  A tight end selected in the NFL’s first round is nearly always a fantasy producer though you may need to stay patient for three years.  There are exceptions but its too difficult an exercise to determine who those exceptions may be.

Round Three

29.  Stefon Diggs, WR
30.  Jeremy Langford, RB

He’s no Gurley, Gordon or Ajayi but I like Langford nearly as much as Tevin Coleman and as much as T.J. Yeldon and David Johnson.  At pick #30, I’m surprised he was still on the board and his selection was an easy one for me.  Michigan State punches out NFL quality running backs and while Langford isn’t flashy, he’s got NFL speed, has the ability to get stronger and catches the ball well.  Too many are sleeping on him in my book.

31.  Javorius Allen, RB
32.  Justin Hardy, WR
33.  Chris Conley, WR
34.  Darren Waller, WR
35.  Kenny Bell, WR
36.  Garret Grayson, QB
37.  Clive Walford, TE
38.  Karlos Williams, RB
39.  Bryce Petty, QB
40.  DeAndre Smelter, WR
41.  Rashad Greene, WR
42.  Zach Zenner, RB

Round three finds us now fully in dart-throw mode.  Chris Conley, the Combine’s workout warrior of 2015 is a nice selection with upside but any of these players  making an impact would be considered a relative long-shot. Finding the proverbial needle here in the third round requires far more luck than  scouting ability, especially considering these rookies have yet to be drafted into a known system.

Summary

In one follow-up move, today I executed a trade where I sent Rueben Randle (WR NYG) in return for Knile Davis (RB KC).  With the return of Victor Cruz and the emergence of O’Dell Beckham, I just am not sure what to make of the disappointing Randle.  He’s still young but likely wouldn’t get much play on my team.  I felt the need to roll the dice on Davis, a player whom I believe has great upside behind Jamaal Charles.  It’s a trade that will likely take another two years to determine which way the scales tip.

Following the draft my starting lineup is as follows:

QB:  Matt Stafford, Colin Kaepernick
RB:  Todd Gurley, Shane Vereen
WR: Sammy Watkins, Kevin White, Allen Robinson
TE:  Delanie Walker

Bench:  Anquan Boldin, Darren McFadden, Trent Richardson, Knile Davis,  Rod Streater, Brett Perriman, Jermaine Kearse and others.

Young?  Certainly.  Upside?  Certainly.  Risky?  ….certainly!

I hope you enjoyed our first LIVE rookie draft of 2015!

Follow me on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

[/am4show]

jeff haverlack