Wide Receiver Measurements: A Look Back to 2014
If you are a veteran reader of DLF and have been a premium subscriber for a while now, you’ve undoubtedly stumbled upon my attempts to quantify exactly how good a player’s combine performance was. Over the years, I think I’ve come up with a nearly fool-proof way to do exactly that. Now before I go any further, let me be 100% clear that the combine is not nor should it be the end all be all in player evaluation. Each and every year there are workout warriors who are great in shorts but fall flat on their face in pads. There are of course the guys on the other end of the spectrum like Wes Welker who test about as poorly as possible at the combine but they end up being great players.
So what exactly is this supposed to measure? The metric I’ve developed is designed to give a score to the physical abilities of a wide receiver. It does not take into account items such as route running, if they are a hands catcher or their work ethic. Those are all qualitative items. I’m sticking only to the quantitative items at the combine.
In order to get a score for each player, I needed a baseline. The baseline was established by taking the group of current WR1s and WR2s in the NFL. I used their combine data to find a baseline for what a starting fantasy receiver in the NFL should be able to do from a physical standpoint. If a player has a score of exactly zero that means as a whole they are the average of your every week starters at the receiver position. This is a very good thing! Scores on the positive end of the spectrum are supremely gifted physical athletes who might be able to get by with less than perfect route running. On the flip side of the coin, those with a negative score are a little less physically gifted than the average starting wide receiver and will likely need to excel at some of the finer points of playing wide receiver to be successful in the NFL. If you get a player with a negative score and they are poor route runners who body catch, it is time to look the other way. Again, the score is just a piece of the puzzle.
If you haven’t read the previous articles, or it has been a while since you’ve done so, you really need to go back and read them before going any further to ensure you understand what the score actually means. I’m currently in the middle of putting everything together for the 2015 draft class, but as a little primer for the current rookies, I wanted to take a look back at how the metric worked with the 2014 draft class to discuss some of the hits and some of the misses as well as pick out any potential sleepers heading into year two.
In order to make this a little more tolerable, I’m going to break things down by groups. Keep in mind a 0 for a score is the average of the best receivers currently in the NFL. Any positive score is a very good thing and even slight negative scores aren’t that bad if the player is a completely receiver. Let’s take a look at the 2014 draft class.
Great Scores (2 or higher)
Odell Beckham (5.512)
Jeff Janis (4.910)
Bruce Ellington (3.645)
Donte Moncrief (2.911)
Brandin Cooks (2.593)
Mike Evans (2.451)
Quincy Enunwa (2.342)
I spent a lot of time last spring singing the praises of Odell Beckham Jr. before it was the trendy thing to do. A score of over 5 puts him into elite company with the likes of Andre Johnson and Julio Jones. His score was a little lower than theirs, but he’s also several inches shorter and size is factored into the metric, which makes his score even more impressive! He wasn’t just a hit for the metric, but a home run!
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Looking at the rest of the list I predicted Moncrief, Cooks and Evans should have all flashed during their rookies seasons and have very high ceilings long term. Moncrief started slow due to playing behind several veterans and Cooks suffered through injuries, but I think we can all agree they showed great promise. As for Evans, if it wasn’t for Beckham stealing the headlines, he would have been making them himself.
For the others, Enunwa was a bit of an outlier because he only ran the 40 yard dash at the combine, so I tossed his score out. He isn’t anyone to worry about. The other two, Janis and Ellington, are still two of my favorite sleepers. Janis is unfortunately buried on the Packers’ depth chart. He could emerge just about anywhere else, but with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb locked in and Davante Adams as the third man, his options are limited. He’s a very long term stash right now. As for Ellington, he is a great sleeper for the 2015 season. As you can see, his physical tools are supreme. From a physical standpoint, he is very close to Beckham, just a little smaller. He’s someone to scoop up if he’s on your waiver wire, because with the lack of receivers in San Francisco he could make some noise!
Good Scores (Between 0 and 2)
Allen Robinson (1.917)
Jordan Matthews (1.707)
Mike Campanaro (1.180)
Damian Copeland (0.936)
Cody Latimer (0.866)
One of the bigger talking points last summer was which of the Jacksonville receivers was the receiver to own. Many went with Marqise Lee, due in part to him being drafted first, but there was a vocal minority who favored Robinson. A part of that came down to the superior physical talents Robinson possessed when compared to Lee. They are both still very young, but I think their rookie seasons need to be counted as a win for Robinson.
Matthews also made a lot of noise during his rookie year and he had a very high score as well. Don’t let his 2014 role as a slot receiver fool you. He has the skill set to play outside and to produce at a very high level from that position. He can definitely be a top receiver on an NFL team.
None of the other three from this tier did much in 2014. Campanaro made a few squeaks but he’s undersized to an extreme, which will likely limit him. Copeland is much more of a return specialist than a receiver and Latimer’s score doesn’t count since he didn’t participate in the combine.
Respectable (Between -2 and 0)
Bennie Fowler (-0.041)
Davante Adams (-0.146)
Martavis Bryant (-0.147)
Sammy Watkins (-0.529)
Devin Street (-0.584)
Marqise Lee (-0.686)
Albert Wilson (-1.258)
Kevin Norwood (-1.577)
Robert Herron (-1.616)
Kelvin Benjamin (-1.649)
Marcus Lucas (-1.844)
At this point, the scores are now below zero. Once again, that means the physical tools are a little bit less than the average physical tools for a starting fantasy wide receiver or a little less than the best 25 receivers in the NFL. These are still very gifted athletes but according to the metric, if they are going to be every week starters on your fantasy roster they need to start making up for their lack of physical tools with some other characteristics like route running or body control. Adams, Bryant, and Watkins all fit this bill. All three of them flashed during their rookie season thanks in part to a combination of physical tools and something else. I think all three of them have bright futures in the NFL with Watkins turning into a perennial WR2 while Bryant and Adams could be solid WR3s for fantasy teams.
The other names on the list which stand out are Lee and Benjamin. In the interest of full disclosure, I wasn’t a very big fan of either one of these guys even before I used this metric on them. Lee struggled as a rookie, largely due to injuries, though even when he was healthy he still struggled last year. Maybe it was just a rough year, but I think he’s going to be the third target on his team at best going forward, and that is assuming he can beat out Allen Hurns this summer for a starting spot opposite Robinson.
As for Benjamin, he would have been much, much lower it wasn’t for his massive size. If you take all of the size elements out of the equation, Benjamin is a pitiful -8 by this metric. That’s exceptionally low. I still believe he was more a product of his situation than his talent and is a solid sell in all dynasty leagues. Once the Panthers bring in some other receivers, I think Benjamin’s role will be scaled back to something which fits his talent a little better.
Struggled (Between -4 and -2)
Shaq Evans (-2.238)
Ryan Grant (-2.480)
Tevin Reese (-2.480)
Josh Huff (-3.206)
Jared Abbrederis (-3.985)
The only two players of note in this group are Huff and Abbrederis. Huff is a player to watch not because of his physical tools but rather because of his familiarity with Chip Kelly’s system. Huff might not even make the roster of a lot of other NFL teams, but because he played for Kelly in Oregon you need to keep him in mind for an end of your bench stash. Ultimately, I don’t think Huff will amount to anything from a fantasy standpoint, but with Chip Kelly around who knows what will happen!
Abbrederis is a player I loved in college, he was way too lean for the metric to like him much. Combine that with him landing on the Packers behind Cobb, Nelson, Adams, and Janis and there isn’t much to like here. It is unfortunate, but I don’t think Abbrederis will be anything more than a special teamer while in Green Bay.
Others of note: Paul Richardson (-5.441), Jarvis Landry (-8.007), Allen Hurns (-10.122)
There has been some talk for the last year or so about Richardson turning into the wide receiver threat the Seahawks desperately need. I really don’t see it. To me he has the makings of a great return man who will struggle playing wide receiver, much like Ted Ginn Jr.
As for Landry, he is the exact kind of player this metric misses on time and time again. Landry didn’t put together a solid rookie season because he is a gifted athlete. Landry had a nice rookie year because he runs very precise routes, has an instinctual feel for the holes in defenses, plays tough at the point of the catch, and has exceptional hands. These are the same qualities which made players like Antonio Brown and Wes Welker fantasy stars. While I don’t see Landry with their upside, I think he can push for WR3 numbers.
Hurns was hardly worth a passing glance last spring. It wasn’t until he hooked up with his former offensive coordinator from college on a team desperate for wide receivers that he became a common name in fantasy leagues. He was aided by injuries to fellow rookies and his familiarity with the playbook. While I think there is a chance he can beat out Lee this year for the chance to start opposite from Robinson, I think Hurns is more likely to be the third receiver on the field. His ceiling is about what we saw last year.
That’s it for my look back at the 2014 rookie class using my combine analysis metric. My look at the 2015 draft class along with a much more detailed explanation of how the metric was developed will be coming in the next few days.
Thanks for reading!
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