2QB ADP and Quarterback Value

Ryan McDowell

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We all know the dynasty fantasy football community is growing as more and more obsessed players transition to the demanding world of dynasty fantasy football. As the popularity of dynasty leagues are on the rise, so too is the demand for variations of dynasty leagues. Leagues featuring individual defensive players, devy players or the option to start two quarterbacks are all becoming more mainstream.

A friend of DLF, Drew Dodson, has been running some off-season dynasty startup mock drafts and has graciously allowed us to use the data he’s collected, which can be found here. Like our ADP data here at DLF, Drew’s data is compiled from six mock draft he hosted. All of the data below is from March and was prior to the free agency period.

It goes without saying, but the main difference in players’ value between your typical dynasty league and a 2QB league is the dramatic rise of each and every quarterback up the draft board. There will usually be very little change in the draft position of running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, other than being knocked down a few spots due to the rising cost of the quarterbacks. The question owners in these leagues face is how to value quarterbacks, especially those in the second and third tier, in comparison to player at other positions. Let’s dig into the data and see just how different it is from our current ADP data from one quarterback leagues.

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2qbchart

There’s a lot of data to absorb here, but a few things stick out to me…

  • Every single quarterback, which includes the top 40 signal callers based on Drew’s 2QB ADP data, had a higher ADP there as compared to DLF’s one quarterback data. This is not really a surprise, but does go to show just how important quarterbacks are in this format.
  • The average percentage increase among all 40 quarterbacks is 53%, meaning in general, you can cut a player’s ADP in half, at least.
  • The current top tier of quarterbacks based on ADP is nine deep and each of those players saw their ADP rise by at least 60%.
  • Speaking of tiers, let’s look a little deeper there. The top tier according to most rankings and ADP consists of Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. In our 2QB data, these are the top two overall players and deservedly so, both seeing their ADP rise 84% and 88%, respectively.
  • The second tier is made up of Russell Wilson and Cam Newton and both find themselves as first round draft picks in the 2QB format. Considering both players are still young and entrenched as starters for the next several years, these are safe picks.
  • You’ll see a gap from the second to third tiers, though the next five quarterbacks are all still being drafted in the second or third round of startup drafts as owners feel the pressure to find a starting quarterback before it’s too late. In line with my typical strategy, I would be uneasy with relying on an older player as one of my core players, especially one who is going through such a transition, like Drew Brees.
  • Following Teddy Bridgewater and that group of the top nine quarterbacks, there are 16 others being drafted in the top 100. That means exactly one-quarter of the top 100 players drafted come from the quarterback position. In comparison, only the top nine I mentioned previously are top 100 players in one quarterback leagues.

The differences between the two formats are clear, but just how does the increased importance placed on the quarterback position change the strategy you should employ?

I have found quarterbacks, even the lesser tiers, carry a great deal of trade value. Because of this, and the option (or requirement) to start a pair of players from the highest scoring fantasy position, it is always my goal to collect as many quarterbacks as possible. It is not unusual for me to roster five or six quarterbacks in a 2QB format.

It’s easy to move players like Luck, Rodgers, Wilson and Newton into the top tier among players like the game’s top receivers or Le’Veon Bell and Rob Gronkowski. As I mentioned earlier though, it can be difficult to compare the value and need of a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger or Philip Rivers and a wide receiver like Keenan Allen or a running back such as Arian Foster. There is no one right answer, but I do think some excellent value can be had in the middle and late rounds of drafts. Players who feel the hatred of dynasty players like Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler can all be prime contributors to a contending team in the 2QB format.

My general strategy is to acquire at least one stud quarterback and in this case that means I’m targeting one of the top nine signal callers. After that, I rarely, if ever, opt for a second tier quarterback over a stud from another position. This means in a startup draft, I will be bypassing the quarterback position altogether for the next several rounds.

Again, it’s obvious these types of leagues are very different when it comes to quarterback value. Be on the lookout for even more coverage of 2QB leagues coming soon on DLF.

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ryan mcdowell