Trust Your Gut: The 1.01

Eric Olinger

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In my last article, “Dealing with the Critics”, I discussed dealing with the public backlash of trading in fantasy football and trusting your gut. The article was very well received and I got a lot of positive feedback. For that, I thank you very much. To follow that topic up with the same line of thinking, I wondered where else does trusting your gut come into play besides in trades. There might not be a more gut wrenching situation than having the first overall pick in a start-up dynasty draft and you can study and analyze different statistics, metrics, trends or tape but at the end of the day you have to make the call.

So, I tweeted a very simple question:

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I got a total of 26 responses and seven different players. There was only one running back, one tight end and five wide receivers, two of which are entering their second season. For the first time in a while the debate includes more names than the normal two or three and Calvin Johnson, who has been cemented in the top two for many years, received zero votes. Here’s how the votes broke down.
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Dez Bryant, WR DAL – seven votes
6’2” / 220 lbs, 26 years old

Dez isn’t a surprising selection. He coming off his best season as a pro and firmly entrenched in his prime as a focal point of a high octane offense. He was a monster last year with 88 catches on 136 targets, 1,320 receiving yards and a league leading 16 receiving touchdowns, good for 316 points in PPR leagues. In fact, over the last three seasons he has been as consistent as anyone in the league. Only Demaryius Thomas has scored more fantasy points than Dez, but Dez has scored 41 touchdowns to Thomas’ 35, and Bryant didn’t have the luxury of a quarterback setting the all-time single season record for touchdown passes.

Season Team Targets Rec Yards Yards/Rec. TDs Rec. % PPR
2014 DAL 136 88 1320 15 16 64.7 316
2013 DAL 159 93 1233 13.3 13 58.5 294.4
2012 DAL 138 92 1382 15 12 66.7 301.7

With Tony Romo throwing the ball in a Scott Linehan offense, there is no reason to believe Bryant will slow down anytime soon. You could argue, without DeMarco Murray, Dez could even see an uptick in targets and receptions without a legitimate playmaker stealing looks. Terrence Williams is showing he’s just another guy, Jason Witten is losing the fight to Father Time and Cole Beasley is 3’9”.

Rob Gronkowski, TE NEP – five votes
6’6” / 265, 25 years old

Gronk was already the favorite to be the first tight end selected in fantasy even before Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle. Since then, his value has skyrocketed even more. With such a huge perceived gap in between Gronk at TE1 and whoever you believe is the TE2, the demand for the weekly difference maker has thrust his name into the conversation for the first overall pick in the draft, even with his injury history and off the field behavior.

Playing in just 15 games, Gronk finished 2013 as the clear TE1, nearly 33 points or just over three points per week, ahead of Jimmy Graham. He sat out the week 17 game against the Bills for rest. His 131 targets on the year was a career high on the way to 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over the last three years he has been the most valuable tight end in fantasy, even when he’s often far less than 100%. On a points per game basis he is leading the pack with 17.8 points per contest, 1.3 point more than second place and roughly five points more per contest than the closely lumped third, fourth and fifth ranked tight ends.

Rank Player Team Games PPR Pts Pts/Gm Rec Yards REC TD
1 Jimmy Graham SEA 47 774.6 16.5 256 3086 35
2 Jason Witten DAL 48 602.3 12.5 247 2593 16
3 Greg Olsen CAR 48 594.7 12.4 226 2667 17
4 Rob Gronkowski NE 33 588.6 17.8 176 2506 27
5 Antonio Gates SD 47 556.1 11.8 195 2231 23

The weekly advantage a player like Gronk gives you over the field cannot be ignored. With Jimmy Graham expected to suffer a statistical regression, the gap is only going to widen. If you play in a tight end premium league, Gronk would be the no-brainer 1.01 selection in my mind.

Julio Jones, WR ATL – four votes
6’3” / 220 lbs, 26 years old

For the first time in a very long time, Julio Jones stayed healthy… mostly. While he didn’t suit up for all 16 games, he did play in 15 on the way to a career high in targets, receptions and yardage. He has always been a big play threat but he really kicked it up a notch or two in the reception department with 104 receptions for 1,593 yards and six scores. He finished as the WR5 in PPR points per game with 19.96, just 1.5 points out of third but roughly a full five points behind Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown.

I believe the only thing holding Julio back from getting a stronger consideration for the top spot is his twice surgically repaired foot. For a receiver who relies on quickness and speed like Julio does, another break to his foot could spell the end. If he can put another season on tape like his 2014, there’s little doubt in my mind he’ll earn more people’s trust as the 1.01. With a quarterback like Matt Ryan throwing him the ball in Kyle Shannahan’s offense, Jones should set another career high in receptions and touchdowns in 2015. Shannahan was able to force a marginal talent like Pierre Garcon 113 receptions for 1,346 yards and five touchdowns while featuring him in Jones’ X-receiver position.

Odell Beckham, WR NYG – three votes
5’11” / 198 lbs, 22 years old

We all know the Odell Beckham folklore. He missed the first month of the season with a slow healing hamstring, drawing the ire of Coach Coughlin. After the Giants’ week eight bye, he went on to rip the league apart over the final nine weeks never finishing with less than 90 yards in a game and going for 130+ in six of those games. This was on top of scoring 12 touchdowns in 12 games and having one of the coolest touchdown grabs we’ve ever seen.

Fast forward just a couple of months and people believe he deserves to be the first pick in the draft. Karl Safchick compares Beckham to the greatest receiver who ever played the game, Jerry Rice. He notes ODB’s giant catch radius and his ability to run every route on the field. While those expectations will be difficult to live up to, I think I agree with his basis for the argument. Beckham really does seem to do everything great, but in today’s NFL it doesn’t take long for defensive coordinators to find your weaknesses and all it would take is for “bad” Eli Manning to show back up. With only 12 games on his resume, a regression seems inevitable. With all this hype and the expectations around him I fear even 80 catches, 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns would be considered a disappointment. I believe in ODB, but I don’t have the stones to pull the trigger at 1.01 over more proven assets.

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT – three votes
6’1” / 244 lbs, 23 years old

The lone running back on this list, Le’Veon Bell is a PPR monster and deserves to be considered with the first pick in the draft. A true featured running back that plays on all three downs and is as strong in the passing game as he is on the ground and at the stripe. His progression from year one to year two was impressive. He raised his yards per carry from 3.5 to 4.7 and his receptions from 45 to 83 in Todd Haley’s offense. Even though DeMarco Murray led the league in rushing yards by nearly 500 yards over second place Bell, it was Le’Veon who led all running backs in fantasy points with 370.5.

Rank Player Team PPR Pts Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TD
1 Le’Veon Bell PIT 370.5 1361 8 83 854 3
2 DeMarco Murray PHI 361.1 1845 13 57 416 0
3 Matt Forte CHI 346.6 1038 6 102 808 4
4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 306.3 1306 13 37 367 4
5 Arian Foster HOU 277.5 1246 8 38 327 5
6 Eddie Lacy GB 276.6 1139 9 42 427 4
7 Jamaal Charles KC 256.4 1033 9 40 291 5
8 Justin Forsett BAL 244.9 1266 8 44 263 0
9 Lamar Miller MIA 229.4 1099 8 38 275 1
10 Jeremy Hill CIN 214.9 1124 9 27 215 0
11 CJ Anderson DEN 211.3 849 8 34 324 2
12 LeSean McCoy BUF 206.4 1319 5 29 155 0

In fact, in terms of positional scarcity you could argue Bell was as valuable as Gronk in 2014. He scored nearly 100 more points than fifth place Arian Foster and 164 points more than 12th place LeSean McCoy, or approximately 10 points per game. As an added bonus, he was absolutely matchup proof. In weeks he was held in check on the ground, he produced in the passing game which kept him from giving owners a single true dud.

Entering 2015, Bell faces a drug related suspension that could range from a two to four game ban to start the season. Since this is his first offense he’ll likely only serve two games. This could possibly provide a small window of opportunity to get Bell at an ever-so-slight discount. There’s little reason to believe he won’t be a top running back option for the next five years. It’s very difficult to find that kind of confidence in any other runner currently in the league.

Antonio Brown, WR PIT – Three votes
5’10” / 186 lbs, 26 years old

The Steelers are the only team to have two players appear on this list. For whatever reason, Antonio Brown is rarely mentioned among the league’s elite receivers. Over the past three years, only Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson have scored more points than Brown. In 2014, he led the league with 129 receptions, 1,698 receiving yards and finished second with 13 touchdowns. He has increased his touchdown total every year he’s been in the league and has a total of 239 receptions, 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns over the last two seasons.

Ben Roethlisberger trusts him and looks to feed his WR1 week in and week out. He caught at least five passes for 70 yards in every game of 2014 and went over 100 yards eight times. He also caught double digit passes in four games. With Martavis Bryant continuing his development on the other side of the field and blowing the top off of defenses and Bell being a legit threat out of the backfield, Brown is set up for success for years to come. Very few players have the resume’ with the high ceiling combined with the incredibly high floor as Antonio Brown. Don’t let the size / weight fool you, the guy is a baller and has every right to be selected first overall.

Mike Evans, WR TB – One vote
6’5” / 231 lbs, 21 years old

If you got a vote, you get a mention. One guy voted for Mike Evans and even though I haven’t actually seen him go first overall, I have heard his name casually tossed around as a possibility. It’s my belief, people who want Evans are doing their best to move down 4-5 spots to take him a couple of pick later. Ever since the 2014 rookie receiver class took the NFL by storm, people assume their historic rookie seasons will be their baselines moving forward and I think it’s unfair and unrealistic. We had seven receivers finish in the top-50 last year, Evans was the WR13.

Rank Player Team PPR ts Rec Rec Yds REC TD
7 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 297 91 1305 12
13 Mike Evans TB 245.1 68 1051 12
15 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 227.8 73 1008 9
25 Jordan Matthews PHI 202.2 67 872 8
27 Sammy Watkins BUF 200 65 982 6
30 Jarvis Landry MIA 189.4 84 758 5
49 Allen Hurns JAX 154.7 51 677 6

In my opinion, there is too much uncertainty in Tampa Bay right now. We assume Jameis Winston will be selected with Tampa Bay’s first overall selection in the upcoming NFL draft but, historically, the success rate of rookie signal callers doesn’t make this a slam dunk, especially one with an off the field reputation like Winston. On the flip side, Winston won the Heisman Trophy throwing to Kelvin Benjamin and Evans is a better version of him. If your gut is telling you to take Evans, I still think the move is to move down to the 4-6 range and acquire additional picks. His March ADP, courtesy of Ryan McDowell, was sixth overall.

Bottom line, you have to trust your gut. A dynasty league is meant to go on forever and the worst thing you can do is take a player because “you’re supposed to”. A simple question like “who would you take with the 1.01?” produced seven different answer from 26 people. This year especially, there isn’t a consensus 1.01 and when the timer nears zero, it’s you, not a website or cheat sheet, making the selection. Make sure it’s one YOU will be happy with.

Follow me on twitter @OlingerIDP.

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eric olinger
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