The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On March 30, 2015

khiry

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

For a league that does not do offseason waivers before the NFL Draft (our first waiver period will be in early May), who do you think is the top target to pursue? Available options in my 10-team PPR league include Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett; Travaris Cadet, Theo Riddick, De’Anthony Thomas; Nick Toon, Cole Beasley, Marquess Wilson; Owen Daniels, Josh Hill, and Virgil Green. – Tony in TX

First things first, my guess is you already have a quarterback better than those available. Derek Carr certainly deserves to be on a roster, but I wouldn’t make him a priority (I think we all have a bit of “graduation goggles” with regards to his season as well). Carson Palmer is solid depth and Ryan Mallett is probably where he belongs.

I’d similarly ignore the running backs. Travaris Cadet will be a popular add, but hidden in his two-year deal with New England is the fact he was only given a $65,000 signing bonus, and is honestly no lock to make the roster. Theo Riddick appears to have more opportunity, but I imagine Detroit will attack the position in the draft. De’Anthony Thomas, like Mallett above, is exactly where he should be.

The receivers are more interesting. Nick Toon should sequester more targets following the trades of Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, and makes for a strong back-end stash. Cole Beasley has been shown love from the Cowboys to the tune of $7 million guaranteed in a new four-year deal and in my opinion has surpassed Terrance Williams in the pecking order, and Marquess Wilson is currently a starter for the Bears – they are both quality options.

[inlinead]With that said, I’d put them at number four and three respectively behind a pair of tight ends – Josh Hill and Owen Daniels. Hill would be my number-two here simply because while I think he’s a good player, I don’t believe he’s going to be the next coming of Graham. More likely he’ll have some big games coupled with games where he disappears, offering little in the way of weekly consistency. He’s a fine “add,” but again, temper your expectations.

Daniels, on the other hand, is quite possibly the off-season’s biggest beneficiary. He was signed to a three-year contract ($12.25 million with a $3 million signing bonus) to play for a top-tier quarterback in Peyton Manning who loves utilizing the tight end in the red zone. He also has the trust of his coach, Gary Kubiak, who has overseen his entire career over the course of nine years and three different teams. Simply put, Daniels is a boring guy who won’t carry the “sex appeal” as the younger, more unproven options, but he should have the best season at fantasy’s most barren position – he’d be my number-one choice for your priority.

In a 14 team, half-PPR league with 10 keepers, I typically keep one quarterback, 3-4 running backs and 5-6 receivers. This year I’m sitting with six running backs in CJ Spiller, Carlos Hyde, Gio Bernard, Andre Ellington, Isaiah Crowell and Latavius Murray. I have Jay Cutler as my quarterback, and the owner of Andrew Luck has zero good keeper running backs. How would you package two running backs with Cutler for Luck? Am I better off trying to trade for future picks instead? – Ryan in NY

In a 14-team league the quarterback position carries more importance than in smaller formats. Additionally, when Smokin’ Jay Cutler is your guy under center, the sentiment from the first sentence is magnified that much more. So I applaud you for attempting to take advantage of the supply and demand scenario created by both your, and your prospective trade partner’s wants and needs.

Truthfully, with the exception of selecting two players from the group of Carlos Hyde, CJ Spiller and Gio Bernard, I think I’d offer up any pair of your ball carriers for Andrew Luck. You have some exciting young guys on your roster, sure, but none of them offer the sort of guaranteed greatness that Luck presents. A deal of something like Hyde and Latavius Murray, with perhaps a pick thrown back your way, would be the ideal scenario of cashing in on unproven hype in order to gain a superstar in return, and as such is something worth pursuing.

What’s your take on Brandon Coleman? The guy’s huge, has good athleticism, broke out early, and New Orleans has shipped away everyone save Brandin Cooks and Josh Hill. Does he stand a chance against incoming rookies? – Stefan in Sweden

Here were my thoughts in a recent off-season dynasty capsule about the Saints:

“He’s a big, strong guy with decent speed, long arms, average hand size and terrible agility. He had an okay collegiate career on a passing game-deficient Rutgers offense, but seemed to function best as a deep threat – unfortunately, that’s a bit redundant with the skill-sets of Stills, although with Morgan out of the fold (and potentially FA Meachem too) perhaps he’ll get some run as a clear-out artist. He scored the ball well, but with Graham in the fold it’s questionable he’ll convert that to viability, as Graham has scored 46 times over the past four years. Honestly though, I see little reason to hold out any high hopes – 32 teams had a chance to sign him and passed. The Saints nabbed him as an UDFA and mothballed him all year, despite getting little to nothing out of the Toon/Morgan/Meachem trio. The Saints have needs on defense and the OL, but could very well target a deep ball specialist to compete for that specialty (and let’s call a spade a spade here – Payton loves his niche players). Coleman is well outside my top 100 dynasty WR’s, and I’d only roster him in a 12-team, 30-player type of league (assuming there were no kickers and defenses).”

Obviously Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham have since been traded, so New Orleans could be looking to fill the roles of deep threat and red zone specialist. Long story short though, I think Nick Toon could do both, and also believe the Saints will attack the position in the draft. To me, more is being made about Coleman than should be, simply because of the receiving vacuum on the Saints.

For about five days Khiry Robinson’s stock was at an all time high. Mark Ingram’s free agency status was up in the air and Robinson had little to no competition in the backfield. That all fell apart, however, when the Saints resigned Ingram and brought CJ Spiller to town. Is it time to drop Khiry Robinson? – Josh in TN

While it’s true Khiry Robinson went from the metaphorical penthouse to the outhouse over the course of about a week, he’s far too talented to drop. This is a guy who, when given the chance to be a feature back during Mark Ingram’s injury-related absence, averaged 5.2 YPC before succumbing to an injury of his own. Again, the situation couldn’t be worse, but unless I’m truly pressed for roster spots I’m normally loathe to give up on a skilled player.

Continuing, neither Ingram nor Spiller have been bastions of health during their respective careers, missing 14 games (in four years) and 10 games (over five years) respectively. Now I recognize past injuries aren’t necessarily predictive, but the fact is neither has been an NFL iron man to date. Should one go down, K-Rob is more than likely the next man up.

I currently have him ranked as my dynasty RB51, but was willing to go about as high as RB30 when his situation looked better. Even still, that’s simply too much value to give up on. If nothing else, I’d target the Ingram and/or Spiller owner to see if they want “insurance” before outright cutting the guy.

So I’m in a 10 team, non-PPR, IDP league with 16 keepers and have two spots left to fill between the following five guys: Allen Robinson, Isaiah Crowell, Chandler Jones, Robert Quinn and Andre Ellington. Who would you go with here? – Sean in MO

The easiest selection here is Rams defensive end Robert Quinn. The guy is a “unicorn” at a position where it’s hard to find aberrantly good players not named JJ Watt. No, his last season didn’t go to script, especially following a breakout 2013 campaign that saw the edge terror accrue 19.0 sacks, but if 10.5 sacks, six passes defensed and six tackles for loss represent a player’s floor, sign me up! Perhaps more importantly, despite entering his fifth year in the league Quinn is still only 24 years old, and his team clearly loves him by virtue of the $66.575 million extension ($41 million guaranteed) they recently inked him to. After Watt, there’s no defensive player I’d rather own.

Even given the non-PPR format, the second player I’d keep is Jacksonville receiver Allen Robinson. Before his foot injury he was having a fine season functioning as the offense’s go-to guy, as evidenced by his above-average AIR value of 1.04. That number is certainly far from elite, but A-Rob didn’t have the luxury of any other threats to draw coverage away. Perhaps more importantly, I expect his touchdown totals (just one every 24 receptions) to rise, as he scored the ball with far greater frequency (once every 10.4 receptions) in college.

The other players you’re considering can certainly have cases made for them as well, but I just don’t see the same type of upside there. Chandler Jones is simply a lesser version of Quinn, offering a fraction of his ceiling and only a slightly higher floor (due to his higher tackle totals). Isaiah Crowell is probably the most talented ball carrier on the Browns roster, but the coaches apparently like fellow sophomore Terrance West just as much, lessening the upside of both. And finally, as much as I love my guy Andre Ellington, he loses a chunk of value in a non-PPR format, and right now there’s just too much smoke surrounding Arizona’s quest for a “big back.” I still believe he can function as a rich man’s Pierre Thomas at worst, but it’s beginning to look like the prior proclamations of greatness I bestowed upon him were somewhat overstated. To me, Robinson and Quinn make the most sense here.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.