Claymation: The Bills Continue their Offensive Makeover

Zach Bahner Posted On March 28, 2015

clay

On March 19, 2015, the Miami Dolphins declined to match the five-year, $38 million contract offer the Buffalo Bills gave to tight end Charles Clay. This, along with numerous other personnel moves, has shaken up the Bills offense. Let’s take a look at what the Clay signing does for this evolving offense.

Charles Clay, TE BUF

After spending his first two seasons in a limited role behind Anthony Fasano, Clay moved into the starting tight end position in 2013. While there is nothing about Clay’s game that is truly exceptional, he is above average at most things. He has good hands, dropping only nine out of 179 targets over the past two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s also a decent blocker in the pass game and exceptional blocker in the run game, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ eleventh rated run blocking tight end. He’s a moveable piece who can line up on the line, out wide and in the backfield, and he runs good routes. He’s a tight end who can do whatever is asked of him.

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As Kellen Winslow showed in 2011, a good tight end can succeed with Rex Ryan as head coach. However, that year Mark Sanchez was in the top 10 in pass attempts. All signs point towards the Buffalo offense being much more run dominant than the 2011 Jets. This leaves Clay in a bit of an unknown territory since he hasn’t had to compete for targets with nearly as good of a receiving corps as what the Bills boast this year, nor has he had to get by with as questionable quarterbacking. He is currently ranked as a middling TE2 and isn’t likely to move much above that. I would expect him to finish the season somewhere in the range of 50/525/4. He’s a great guy to have on your roster to fill in for bye weeks and play in plus matchups, but he isn’t going to win you your league. This is more of a positive real football move than fantasy football, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for him to grow in this offense.

As the season progresses and we start to be able to gauge whether or not the Bills will be in position to improve the quarterback position in 2016, Clay could become a good buy low. He finished as the number 14 tight end in 2014 after missing two games. He has the skills to be a low end TE1 with a better passer under center. He’s a player to monitor.

Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel, QB BUF

Whichever one of these quarterbacks is starting on a week-to-week basis has gained a good security blanket and extra blocker with the Clay signing. Neither of these quarterbacks is ranked any higher than number 29 by any of our rankers, and that’s unlikely to change just because Clay’s addition. Keep expectations low for both quarterbacks, and don’t break the bank trying to acquire either.

Sammy Watkins, WR BUF

Already entrenched as a dynasty WR1, the addition of Clay doesn’t do much to alter Watkins’ potential, except potentially cost him a red zone target here or there. At best it will alleviate some coverage on underneath routes, but defenses will continue to cover him tightly. Watkins’ short term potential is a bit hamstrung by the less than stellar quarterback play, but he will continue to be a player to target in dynasty leagues.

Percy Harvin, WR BUF

Clay only does good things for Harvin. If Harvin gets a carry, Clay blocks for him. If Harvin is used in the screen game, Clay blocks for him. This is a good signing for Harvin’s usage, but it doesn’t change his overall ranking. He will benefit from Clay’s blocking skills but should not lose targets to him.

Robert Woods, WR BUF

Clay’s addition hurts Woods the most on this team. After improving on his rookie campaign, now Woods will lose some snaps and targets to Clay. I really liked Woods as a prospect coming out of USC, but the writing is on the wall after adding Clay and Harvin. While I still think Woods has a future with the Bills, his ceiling has gotten a lot closer to fantasy irrelevant. He should still be on a roster in nearly all 12-team formats, but the odds are he will only be starting for your team after an injury to Watkins, Harvin or Clay. The trade market for him is likely not going to be there, so he’s a hold or drop depending on what your roster needs might be. He’s moved into WR6 territory.

LeSean McCoy, RB BUF

Much like Harvin, Clay’s arrival is good for McCoy. Having a good run blocking tight end will help make up for Buffalo’s offensive offensive line. Pro Football Focus graded the Buffalo last in the NFL in 2014 – Clay should help improve that ranking and make for more open running lanes for McCoy. This move further solidifies McCoy as a dynasty RB1 for those who may have doubted his abilities after a lackluster 2014 in Philadelphia.

Scott Chandler, TE NE

After being released by the Bills on March 11, 2015, Chandler spoke with both the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots before signing a two-year, $5.3 million contract with New England two days later. This was a quizzical signing for the Patriots who already have Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui and Tim Wright at the tight end position. If it weren’t for the high dollar amount, I wouldn’t expect Chandler to remain on the team at the start of the regular season. Without injury to Gronkowski, the odds of Chandler having much fantasy relevance are pretty low. He can be cut unless you’re in a very deep league.

Patriots Pass Catchers

The addition of Chandler does little to affect the rest of the Patriots pass catchers. Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola have all carved out their roles already, as have the tight ends. None of the Patriots’ established veterans should lose noticeable playing time to him.

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