West Side Torrey

Jacob Feldman

torrey

I’m not sure everyone fully realizes it because we typically view them as a good team, but the 49ers have routinely had one of the worst passing offenses in the league. In terms of passing yards, they have been 30th, 30th, 23rd and 29th over the last four seasons. I know that’s just passing yards, but they aren’t exactly lighting it up in any other passing game category, either. The only team that can match the 49ers ineptitude over the last four years in the passing game is the Jets and that’s saying something!

With Torrey Smith following the money and ending up on the West Coast, does this kill his fantasy value moving forward? On the surface, that seems to be the case given what I said above, but let’s not be quite so hasty. The four years of terrible passing stats were under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, neither of which are back with the team this year. There is also the little issue of a lack of passing game targets on the offense due to poor play and injury, which might have pushed the stats down. Neither of these items fully explain the terrible passing offense, but they do provide a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel if you’re a Smith owner.

Torrey Smith, WR SF

Coming off his worst season as a pro in terms of receptions and yards, Torrey Smith has decided to move on and cash in. Typically this is a very bad thing for receivers and their fantasy value – just ask Eric Decker’s owners. While I’m not going to go as far as to say Smith signing with the 49ers was a good thing, I don’t think it completely kills his value, either. Smith fills a role the 49ers have been lacking for years. He gives them a legitimate deep threat to not only help open up running lanes but to give players like Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis a little bit of room over the middle of the field. Last year, with Michael Crabtree, Boldin and Davis, defenses could collapse the field and only worry about covering a small part of the field since none of them were going to burn a defense deep – that all changes with Smith coming to town.

Not only does Smith fill a definite need with his role in the offense, but the supporting cast might have gotten stronger. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Colin Kaepernick is a better quarterback than Joe Flacco. In terms of Smith’s game, the most important item from his quarterback is a big arm to push the ball deep. I would put the two quarterbacks pretty close to each other in that regard. Where the supporting cast improved was with the other pass catchers.

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In Baltimore last year, Torrey didn’t have much of a supporting cast. I know someone is going to take exception to that due to Steve Smith, but look a little closer at his season. His production really tailed off after posting more than half of his yards and two thirds of his touchdowns in the first six weeks. From that point on, the elder Smith was pretty ineffective as far as starting wide receivers go. Thanks to Dennis Pitta’s injury, the Ravens really didn’t have anyone else to catch passes, which allowed defenses to take Torrey out of the game. I think Boldin and Davis are upgrades over the supporting cast in Baltimore, and the run game should be better and command more attention as well. Justin Forsett had a great year, but he isn’t going to make defense game plan to stop him.

Overall, I think the move to San Francisco will limit Smith’s ceiling a little bit, due to the limited amount of passing the offense tends to do, but I don’t think it will hurt as much as some think. Even bad passing games need someone to catch passes. As the centerpiece of the offense and someone able to take advantage of Kaepernick’s cannon, I’m expecting a stat line fairly close to Torrey’s 2013 season which was 65/1128/4 but approaching double digit touchdowns. I expect him to be just inside the top 25 fantasy wide receivers, but to be inconsistent from week to week.

Anquan Boldin, WR SF

The 34-year old is under contract for one more season, and his play isn’t showing any signs of falling off a cliff. He definitely isn’t the receiver he was in his twenties, but he’s a very solid underneath option. With Smith taking the top off of defenses, Boldin should continue to thrive in PPR leagues as a solid WR3 with his lack of touchdowns keeping him out of the WR2 range. I’m expecting about 70 catches and 1000 yards to go with 4 scores.

Bruce Ellington, WR SF

I only mention Ellington because he was one of my favorite late round rookies last year. He is small, but very talented with the ball in his hands. With Stevie Johnson gone, if Boldin slips a little bit, Ellington could see a sharp increase in his playing time. He’s a great end of the roster stash right now.

Colin Kaepernick, QB SF

Finally having a real deep threat should help Kaepernick set career high passing numbers in 2015. Then again, that isn’t saying much since his career highs were 3369 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. I’m expecting him to best both marks by a small amount, possibly 3500 yards with 25 touchdowns. Those definitely not elite passing numbers, but they are enough to make a few pass catchers fantasy relevant.

Michael Crabtree, WR FA

The former 49er is a free agent at the time this article was written. I think there is a lot of bad blood between him and the 49ers, but I also think his market is almost non-existent. I think he’ll find a home as a second option somewhere and turn into a solid possession receiver. If he lands in a higher volume passing attack (like San Diego), he would have WR2 level ceiling. He’ll turn 28 just after the start of the season, but he should still offer another 3-4 seasons of WR2/WR3 level production if he can stay healthy.

Ravens Pass Catchers

As of right now, the starting pass catchers in Baltimore are a soon to be 36 year old Steve Smith, some combination of Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown opposite from him, and a rather broken Dennis Pitta at tight end. While there is a chance they could go after one of the current free agents, I’m not sure they have the cap space to bring in anyone of note. Instead I plan on them drafting a receiver early, possibly even following the Jacksonville strategy from last year and drafting multiple early in hopes at least one of them can start on day one.

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jacob feldman