Who is Dri Archer?
Most running backs selected on the first two days of the NFL Draft bring high expectations as they ascend to the professional level, both in the fantasy community and to their new franchise. Considering he was the eighth running back off the board (one pick after Jerick McKinnon), the hype around Pittsburgh’s Dri Archer has been minimal. With some gaudy collegiate stats and an impressive Combine on his resume, is there potential for fantasy value with the second year running back in 2015?
A track and football star at high school in Florida, Archer was offered sport scholarships to attend several colleges including Clemson and Arkansas. Both of these were for track, however, and Archer chose to attend Kent State University (KSU) on the only football scholarship he was given. As a freshman in 2009, Archer rushed 58 times for 246 yards and a touchdown along with 19 receptions for 231 yards and three scores. He regressed the following season, totaling only 215 yards from scrimmage before being ruled academically ineligible for the 2011 season.
Archer came back to the gridiron with a vengeance in 2012, finishing just ten yards shy of 2,000 from scrimmage on 198 touches with 20 touchdowns. He also averaged 37 yards per return on special teams, scored three more touchdowns on kickoffs and even threw a 24-yard touchdown pass. Though he missed multiple games and his statistics regressed as a senior in 2013, he followed up his MAC Special Teams Player of the Year award with a selection to Third-Team All-MAC as he averaged 7.75 yards per carry and 13 yards per reception out of the backfield.
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The real show, which would prove to vault Archer up the draft board as much as anyone, was his performance at the 2014 NFL Combine. Known for his speed, the former track star ran a 4.26-second 40-yard dash. Only Chris Johnson at 4.24 has ever recorded a faster time at the Combine, and he bested the second place running back (McKinnon at 4.41) by a wide margin. He also recorded top-ten finishes in the broad jump and bench press, top-four finishes in the vertical jump and 3-cone drill and a second place finish in the 20 yard shuttle. Heading into the draft, Archer’s stock was rising fast. Pittsburgh spent its third-round compensatory pick, the 97th selection overall on the speedy tailback and return specialist.
Aside from his bread-and-butter talent, Archer shows good balance and vision to adjust to the open lane to burst through. He shows good strength for a player with his size and skillset, having demonstrated an ability to line up in the slot and take hits in the middle of the field. Though he wasn’t heavily utilized as a receiver, Archer has reliable hands and caught 99 passes at KSU. This also speaks to his versatility, playing all over the field on offense and on special teams.
The primary knocks on Archer are directly related to his size as his 5’8”, 173 pound frame would likely not hold up in an every-down role in the backfield or slot. Though he has good relative strength, his inability to break tackles on initial contact and lack of discipline running routes preclude him from being a regular option on offense. Frequent NFL comparisons, from both a size and skillset standpoint, include Tavon Austin, Dexter McCluster and Ace Sanders so expectations should be appropriately tempered.
As a 23-year old rookie in 2014, Archer was only handed the ball ten times and produced 40 yards out of it. He caught seven passes on ten targets for 23 yards, and added another three receptions for 15 yards in the Steelers’ lone playoff game, but he never got any momentum as part of the game plan even after the release of primary backup running back LeGarrette Blount.
Though he did not step up following Blount’s departure, nor did any other running back on the roster (namely fellow rookie Josh Harris). Rather, the Steelers just increased Le’Veon Bell’s workload as he averaged over 30 touches per game from weeks 11 through 14 – this type of workload is not sustainable for an extended period of time and given Bell’s suspension to begin the 2015 season Pittsburgh must have a couple backup plans in mind.
The Bell-cow is signed through 2016, and the Steelers recently added 32-year old veteran De’Angelo Williams to serve as his primary backup. Williams was given a two-year contract, though it will likely turn into a one-and-done given the $2.565 million cap hit on his age-33 season in 2016. Harris will be a restricted free agent following the 2015 season, while Archer’s rookie contract goes through 2017. Given the age, talent and skill sets of the players below Bell on the depth chart, it would not be surprising for the Steelers to add a running back through the draft (albeit likely with a late pick considering more pressing needs elsewhere on the roster).
For Archer, the running back depth chart may be largely irrelevant based on recent comments from offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Indicating that his third-round pick from 2014 will receive “five or six touches” per game in 2015, and highlighting his game-breaking ability to score a touchdown on any play, Haley essentially said that Archer is a gadget player and the Steelers need to give him the ball sparingly to give him the best chance at using his speed to score touchdowns. He also alluded to the game being too big for the small-school player in his first season.
If Pittsburgh envisions Archer in such a specialized role, in occasional formations out of the backfield and lined up in the slot as well as in the kick return game, his value is limited to being a flier in bestball formats. Though he was entrusted as primary kick returner early in his rookie season, ineffectiveness (under 18 yards per return) handed the job off to Markus Wheaton. As a result, unless he is able to win the job back from the wide receiver, Archer may find himself on the roster bubble despite his third-round pick status.
With his team saying they have to find more ways to get Archer involved, it is unclear whether the Steelers have changed their mind about his role from what they originally envisioned. Regardless, the fantasy value of the day two pick in the 2014 NFL Draft appears headed for the “bust” end of boom-or-bust.
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