Julius Teaser: Analysis of Julius Thomas’ New Contract

Eric Hardter Posted On March 21, 2015

thomas

One of the worst kept secrets over the past few weeks (months, even) was the imminent departure of Denver tight end Julius Thomas. With a tight salary cap situation and the likelihood (now certainty) of needing to use the franchise tag on star receiver Demaryius Thomas, it simply wasn’t going to be in the budget to retain the artist formerly known as Orange Julius. To that point, a Jacksonville team flush with cash and desperate to make a splash in free agency gave Thomas an offer he simply couldn’t refuse in the form of a five-year contract worth up to $46 million, with $24 million guaranteed. Will all Thomas’ prior production go down as nothing more than a tease with one stroke of a pen? Let’s consider the fallout from one of the off-season’s biggest moves…

Julius Thomas, TE JAX

The lazy answer is to assert Thomas is in for a dramatic shift in value by virtue of leaving a Peyton Manning-led offense for one helmed by underwhelming rookie Blake Bortles. And on the surface the numbers would appear to back that up, as the 2014 Broncos offense created 1,116.9 PPR points for their pass catchers, while the Jaguars could only generate 760.1 PPR points, or just 68.1% of Denver’s output. As owners of former Bronco Eric Decker can attest, a stark change in quarterback play is definitively a factor in fantasy output.

On the other hand, Thomas was forced to share the wealth in Denver, and only averaged a mere 5.5 targets per game. Such is life when you’re eating the same pie as players like Demaryius Thomas, Decker, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker, Knowshon Moreno and CJ Anderson. Despite an influx of talent from the 2014 rookie class, the competition in Jacksonville is significantly lesser – I would be extremely surprised if JT doesn’t surpass 100 targets, so long as he stays healthy.

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To that last statement, health has been an issue for the young tight end since he entered the league. He missed the entire 2012 season, along with two games in 2013 and three more last season due to persistent ankle injuries. I’m not generally a believer that past injuries are a genuine predictor of future viability, but it’s nevertheless important to note.

To me, however, the biggest hurdle Thomas will have to clear is the unlikelihood of scoring touchdowns at the same rate as the past two years. With 24 scores in his past 27 games, it’s not surprising a large portion of Thomas’ points (37.9% in PPR and a whopping 53.0% in non-PPR) were derived simply by virtue of crossing the goal line. Even the greatest scoring tight end of all-time, Rob Gronkowski, has “only” achieved touchdown percentage rates of 30.2% and 42.5% in PPR and non-PPR formats, respectively – when you’re outpacing the most un-guardable red zone presence of our generation, something has to give.

Because of these question marks, I can only view the move to Jacksonville as a downgrade. Thomas was smart to cash in when given the chance, but the destination simply isn’t going to help his fantasy prowess. While he’ll have the chance to prove me wrong, I’ve now downgraded Thomas to a rank of my overall dynasty TE8.

Blake Bortles, QB JAX

If nothing else, the ascending sophomore is going to get his chance to sink or swim. While he surely won’t repeat his Denver numbers, Thomas should provide Bortles with a huge upgrade over the duo of Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor, who could only combine for 44 receptions, 495 yards and three touchdowns last year. And for a signal caller who only completed 58.9% of his passes despite averaging a scant 6.1 YPA, any addition to the short passing game should help – partly as a result of this improvement, I have Bortles ranked as my dynasty QB16.

Allen Robinson, WR JAX

Though I still believe A-Rob is the pass catcher to own in Jacksonville, the Thomas signing could impact his output should he continue to function in the same manner as he did as a rookie. To wit, despite the ability to win at the catch point downfield, Robinson was typically deployed in the short passing game, often asked to collect short targets and rack up yards after the catch, something at which he excels. As Thomas doesn’t block, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be occupying the same part of the field where Robinson would roam last year. Regardless, A-Rob averaged a modest 8.1 targets per game last year, and I wouldn’t anticipate a substantial (if any) decrease in volume – he remains my dynasty WR17 with room to grow.

Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns, WRs JAX

I like Lee a lot and thought he showed reasonably well after Robinson was lost for the season to a foot injury. Unfortunately, I just have a tough time getting excited about the third option in a mediocre passing game. He’s well worth the stash, but is only ranked as my dynasty WR43.

Hurns is likely to be hit harder, as his six scores represented 40% of the team’s passing touchdowns in 2014 (no other player had more than two). While Thomas’ scores were undeniably inflated in Denver, this is nevertheless a skill redundant with the new acquisition. Hurns is likely going to be the offense’ fourth target, at best, and as such is my dynasty WR81.

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

Blackmon is essentially dynasty football’s white whale and there are no guarantees he’ll even play again, let alone return to the star form he intermittently flashed. He’s my dynasty WR46, but this signing doesn’t impact my opinion of him at all.

Peyton Manning, QB DEN

At the risk of sounding too casual, Manning will find ways to score the ball. He hasn’t thrown for fewer than 37 touchdowns in any of his three seasons wearing orange, while also providing players previously allergic to the end zone (Welker and Sanders) with career highs in scoring. He’s a top option as long as he’s playing, and is ranked as my dynasty QB13.

Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, WRs DEN

Nothing has changed here. They will remain the top two options in the passing game – Thomas is my dynasty WR4 and Sanders is my WR18.

Cody Latimer, WR DEN

Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Thomas’ exodus is the 2014 second round pick from the University of Indiana. Though he hasn’t proven anything yet on the professional level, Latimer boasts above average size and speed, and should slot in as the team’s WR3. However, because of the uncertainty of his role I don’t want to project immediate greatness unto him – he appears to have a bright future, but at the moment is only ranked as my dynasty WR48.

Virgil Green, TE DEN

Things looked good for the athletic freak when Denver management re-signed him earlier this week and it appeared he might finally get the chance to delve into his as-of-yet untapped potential. Alas, it now seems all for naught as the Broncos also inked the player below. The blocking specialist is my dynasty TE50.

Owen Daniels, TE DEN

Now we have some intrigue!

Daniels has spent his entire career with Broncos coach Gary Kubiak, following him from Houston to Baltimore and now to the Mile High City. After being left for dead at this point last year Daniels surprisingly finished as the PPR TE18 despite not starting until week four, while also missing a week in the process. The latter stands as more of a concern for the 32-year old, as he hasn’t played a full season since 2008, but he’s also never played with a quarterback as talented as Manning. I imagine Daniels will play the bulk of the snaps, and should he retain his health it wouldn’t shock me to see him flirt with TE1 viability – out of all the players listed in this analysis he received the biggest bump and is currently ranked as my dynasty TE25.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.