Stills the One: Dolphins land Kenny Stills from New Orleans

Today’s look at the off-season NFL roulette wheel stops in Miami to examine the Kenny Stills trade from New Orleans.

The Saints were looking to shake their roster up, while the Dolphins were pleased to get a speedy young playmaker, then spin off his predecessor for more cap room. At the end of the day, Miami traded linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and a third-round pick for Kenny Stills and swapped wide receiver Mike Wallace and a seventh-round pick to Minnesota for a fifth-rounder. Those two moves freed up $5.5 million according to the Miami Herald.

Stills arrives to the Dolphins with career marks of 95 catches and 1,572 yards of which 63 and 931 came in 2014. Wallace exits two seasons after being a splash free agent signing with 140 catches, 1,792 yards and 15 touchdowns.

We’ll have more on Mike Wallace this week, but what impact does Stills moving from the Big Easy to South Beach have on your dynasty squad?

Let’s take a look.

Kenny Stills, WR Miami

Stills moves from a veteran pass-happy offense, where he was the fourth or fifth option, to a younger one that is more balanced, but immediately steps into a primary role. In New Orleans, his job was to stretch the field to clear space for Jimmy Graham in the middle of the field and the other wideouts working underneath.

When Drew Brees did look to Stills deep, he was very effective. He was targeted 14 times on throws of 20 yards or more in 2014. Of those, he caught 12 balls, with one drop, for 370 yards and one touchdown.

In Miami, he will take over the role filled by Mike Wallace as the deep-ball specialist. Wallace was targeted 24 times last season on throws of 20 yards or more, but he managed to only haul in six of those, with one drop.

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If Stills is truly duplicating Wallace’s role, his numbers should actually increase. Wallace was targeted 108 times last season, catching 67. Stills was targeted 80 times, catching 63. Applying Stills’ catch rate of 78.75% to Wallace’s 108 targets results in 85 catches for Stills. Multiply that by Stills’ 14.8 yards per catch and that will get you 1,258 yards, easily putting him in the WR1 range. Keep in mind that Brees is a more accurate deep-ball thrower than Ryan Tannehill, so those numbers may be on the high side.

Jarvis Landry, WR Miami

While he didn’t have the jaw-dropping season that former LSU-running mate Odell Beckham Jr. did, Landry went to the Dolphins and throughout the season grew into a solid No. 2 option.

A second-round pick, Landry’s best game last season was an eight catch, 99-yard effort in a losing cause against the Patriots in Week 15. Not counting Week 1 when he didn’t play, Landry averaged seven targets and had 84 receptions and 758 yards in his rookie campaign. Landry was the picture of PPR consistency last season usually catching between five and eight passes for 45 to 65 yards. Those numbers should be easily repeatable if not expanded upon in 2015.

Jordan Cameron, TE Miami

Concussions and poor quarterback play slowed Cameron last season, but landing in Miami should actually be a good fit for him. His athleticism will help stretch the field horizontally and help the Dolphins control the middle of the field.

Joining with two young emerging wideouts like Stills and Landry will help keep coverages from focusing on Cameron, who was the primary target for Cleveland the past two seasons when he was healthy. While his total catches may drop slightly with improved offensive teammates, his overall yardage and touchdowns may rise thanks to less double-coverage.

Ryan Tannehill, QB Miami

It’s good to be Ryan Tannehill and I’m not just talking about his wife.

The team upgraded his weapons heading into a contract year and freed up cap space to either A.) bring in more weapons, or B.) patch up the defense (which they already begun by signing Ndamukong Suh) to increase their chances of winning.

Tannehill already had an established rapport with Landry and a 1,000 yard rusher in Lamar Miller. If Stills can provide roughly the same amount of production Wallace did, Miami could have a nice little nucleus of fantasy points for several years.

Lamar Miller, RB Miami

Not much should really change for Mr. Miller in terms of production. If anything, he may have fewer receptions as the pass-catching talent around him has gotten better. As long as Stills and Landry are healthy, teams won’t crowd the box looking stop Miller and his productivity should remain high.

Mike Wallace, WR Minnesota

The ink from the writing on the wall barely had time to dry before Wallace was traded to Minnesota Friday. With the addition of Stills, it was readily apparent Wallace was no longer in Miami’s plans going forward. Stills is a younger, cheaper, version of Wallace who “struggled to find chemistry” with quarterback Tannehill.

Wallace actually is a good fit for offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s system in Minnesota and we’ll cover that later this week.

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