Patrick Willis: The Aftermath

Steve Wyremski

willis

After shocking speculation to begin free agency week, earlier today the 49ers announced Patrick Willis is retiring from the NFL after eight seasons. Apparently, Willis lost the proverbial ‘love for the game’ amidst an alleged religious awakening, although he claims the cause was predominantly his foot issues. He prematurely ends an NFL career at the ripe age of 30. A career littered with accolades elected to the Pro Bowl in seven seasons, earning first team All Pro honors in five of those. Despite all of this success, the amount he still could have achieved is massive.

There’s no doubt Ray Lewis is pacing the NFL Network set dumbfounded after squeezing every ounce play out of his 14 NFL seasons.

Drafted by the 49ers as a raw athletic linebacker with the eleventh pick in the 2007 draft, Willis was the leader, face and cornerstone of the 49ers’ defensive dominance over the last five years. He led a defensive ranked in the top five in all but one of the last five years, is the best linebacker of his generation and will long be grouped with the best linebackers in NFL history with the likes of Lewis, Mike Singletary and Lawrence Taylor.

Willis walks away with two years (and a little less than $20 million) left on his contract and leaves a 49ers team reeling from recent front office issues with Jim Harbaugh, Vic Fangio and Trent Baalke. This retirement only adds to the uneasiness currently surrounding this franchise. It certainly makes you wonder if the coaching staff turnover and the associated series of events played any part in his decision. On the flipside, with all the recent press surrounding long-term health risks as a byproduct of NFL play, many may understand why he would walk away at a young age if his foot injuries are really impacting his quality of life as he hinted at in his press conference.

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Willis’ retirement, Justin Smith’s retirement and the offseason front office mess leaves the 49ers scrambling. This defense needs an injection of talent and depth, and is likely to struggle to carry its recent dominance in 2015 with the loss of two major pieces. These are major blows to the 49er defense and franchise.

With the loss of Willis, there is a gaping hole in the middle. Sure, Chris Borland proved to be a solid addition in his rookie year playing Navarro Bowman’s role, but that’s one season. He’s promising, but far from Willis’s elite level at this point in his career. In addition, Bowman is also still on the mend since blowing out his knee in gruesome fashion during the 2013-2014 NFC Championship. There are significant question marks on this defense.

I’m not a 49er fan and, but I feel for them. Today’s news is a punch in the chest for 49er fans (and IDP owners). Willis set the tone and was a prototypical lunch-pail linebacker. He shut his mouth, worked his tail off and delivered every Sunday. He’s the epitome of a Vic Fangio defensive player and one any NFL fan would want leading its team. He is a once every ten years type of player and a huge loss to, not only the 49ers and its fans, but the NFL.

As for Willis’ dynasty value, it appears to be close to nothing. There’s always a chance he returns to play a year or so from now under his own terms and for a team of his choice, but he is denying that already. In anything but a shallow league, I’d let him clog my roster for a period of time in hopes he returns a year from now given how young he is. It seems like a slim chance given his current attitude towards the game, but things can always change – even if he has a bum foot.

There are major IDP consequences to Willis’s decision. The loss of a top IDP middle linebacker will always have massive implications on the dynasty landscape. Here’s how this news impacts other IDPs.

Chris Borland, ILB

As a rookie in 2014, Borland finished with 84 solo tackles, 12 assists, and a sack. Most of this production was concentrated in a seven week period where he was a strong LB1. With the expected return of Bowman alongside Willis, Borland owners appeared to be relegated to a reserve role and a virtual non-factor for IDP purposes in 2015. The retirement of Willis clearly changes things and immediately vaults Borland to LB1 status across dynasty leagues.

The biggest question will be the impact of Justin Smith’s retirement and how it impacts linebacker performance. Like Willis, Smith was a pivotal player in this defense and will need to be adequately replaced in order to hold this defense together, absorb defensive attention, and keep the linebackers clean.

Navarro Bowman, ILB

Bowman’s value shouldn’t be significantly impacted by Willis – it won’t impact his snaps at all. It’s possible he sees a few more tackle opportunities if Borland doesn’t continue to improve, but it’s unlikely to be meaningful enough to alter his dynasty value. The biggest question with Bowman will be how he recovers from the major knee injury and, like Borland, the impact of Smith’s retirement.

49ers DST

The 49ers lost its defensive coordinator who designed its dominant defense. It also lost two cornerstones. That’s a massive impact that can’t be quantified. This defense is in flux and is likely to be unreliable in 2015.

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