Instant Analysis: Ryan Mathews agrees with the Eagles

Dan Meylor

mathews

Update: With DeMarco Murray en route to Philadelphia, it’s been revealed Mathews hasn’t actually signed his deal with the Eagles yet. If Murray signs, all bets are off.

Ever since LeSean McCoy was sent packing to Buffalo, dynasty owners have been waiting for Chip Kelly to find his next featured tailback. After much speculation including reports that proved to be false of Frank Gore becoming the Eagles next starting running back, it looks as though Kelly has found his guy in former Chargers tailback Ryan Mathews who agreed to a three year, $11.5 million contract with $5-million guaranteed with Philadelphia on Wednesday. Let’s take a look at how the signing affects everybody’s dynasty value going forward.

Ryan Mathews, RB PHI

On the surface, Mathews in Philadelphia appears to be a good match. According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles had the top run blocking offensive line in the league last year. The Eagles will return all of that offensive line and Kelly has shown a commitment to running the ball so on paper, Philly looks like a dream destination for any tailback.

Mathews also seems to fit the profile of the kind of runners that excel in Kelly’s system, at least on first and second down. To be successful, Philadelphia’s running game requires a tailback with good vision and patience to wait for running holes to develop. When a crease is created, the ball carrier must attack the line of scrimmage with burst. All of that describes Mathews’ skills quite extensively. He sees running lanes very well and when healthy, has shown explosiveness going north and south in his time in league.

Typically, Kelly’s tailbacks have also brought a dimension to the passing game as well. Going back to his days at Fresno State, Mathews was never much of a pass catcher. Although he caught 89 passes between in his second and third season with the Chargers and has 146 career catches, he’s never looked comfortable as a receiver in the NFL either. Averaging just 7.6 yards per reception and tallying 11 dropped passes since entering the league, he’s never shown the natural ability to be a dynamic receiver.

Given the Eagles also has third down specialist Darren Sproles under contract, Mathews will be asked to contribute very little in the passing game in Philadelphia. While Sproles’ presence won’t affect Matthews’ value to the Eagles, it will absolutely effect his fantasy value.

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Perhaps most importantly when considering Mathews for fantasy purposes is his health. Durability concerns with Mathews date all the way back to college and haven’t gone away since entering the league.

In his five years in San Diego, Mathews missed multiple games in four of them and reached 200 carries only twice. He played just 60 of a possible 80 games with the Chargers and regularly missed parts of games due to injuries to his shoulder, knee, ankle and foot over the years. At best, he’s been unreliable for both the Chargers and fantasy owners since being drafted.

Overall, many fantasy owners are excited about the possibilities for Mathews in Philadelphia for good reason. Once having (and still with) great upside due to his vision, explosiveness and power, the possibility exists that Mathews could flourish in Philadelphia despite playing on just first and second downs. At this point, he should be considered a risky RB2 with the potential to possibly post RB1 numbers if he stays healthy – which is a big if.

Although the hype surrounding him will grow now that he’s with the Eagles, the cost of acquiring Mathews is relatively low. Dynasty owners considering rolling the dice on Mathews as their RB2 should make sure a backup plan is in place for if (or perhaps more appropriately, when) he goes down to injury. There is also talk that DeMarco Murray could end up in Philadelphia and that would obviously be very bad for Mathews.

Here are a few other players who have seen their values change as a result of the signing:

Darren Sproles, RB PHI

The acquisition of Mathews has very little effect on Sproles. Even when Kelly had one of the top tailbacks in the game with McCoy, he insisted on using the veteran pass catcher extensively. Sproles had just 57 carries in his first season in Philadelphia but caught 40 passes, racking up 716 total yards and scoring six touchdowns.

Outside of perhaps a few more catches, dynasty owners shouldn’t expect anything more out of Sproles than what he produced in 2014, but an injury to Mathews could create a spike in opportunities. At best, Sproles should be considered a deep flex play in PPR leagues at this point in his career.

Chris Polk, RB PHI

The “other” tailback in Philadelphia, Polk was a thorn in the side of McCoy owners in 2014 as he stole four touchdowns while averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Although he doesn’t offer a lot of upside, at this point he’s next in line for early down work if Mathews were to miss time. Dynasty owners of Mathews that play in deep enough leagues to carry handcuffs should consider Polk for a roster spot. Of course, if Kelly brings in another runner, his value goes in the can immediately.

Branden Oliver, RB SD

At this point, Oliver is on top of the depth chart for the Chargers. While that may create a slight spike in value, it’s not likely to last. Oliver looked good at times last year while filling in for the injured Mathews but doesn’t appear ready to shoulder the load. The Chargers are sure to bring in competition for early down work in the coming weeks. If you own him and can pawn him off on an unwitting fellow owner willing to pay for the slim chance that he’s the starter in San Diego in 2015, do it.

Donald Brown, RB SD

Brown signed a three-year contract worth more than $10-million a year ago to be the insurance policy to Mathews but was dreadful in his first year in San Diego. He averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on his 85 attempts while catching 29 passes for just 211 yards. Brown also missed three games due to a concussion.

While it’s been rumored that the Chargers plan on keeping Brown around for next season, they can’t have much faith in him to be anything more than a role player. Fantasy owners should be depending on him even less.

Anybody Else?

The player set to gain the most fantasy appeal due to Mathews signing in Philadelphia actually may not even be in the NFL. Due to the move, San Diego becomes one of the most intriguing landing spots for tailbacks in the Draft despite having question marks along the offensive line. With just Oliver, Brown and veteran Danny Woodhead on the roster, there’s a definite need for an impact player in the Chargers’ backfield.

Holding the 17th pick in the first round, the Chargers could choose Wisconsin tailback Melvin Gordon or Georgia runner Todd Gurley. Either would instantly vault to the top of the depth chart and depending on Gurley’s health, either could make a big impact for both the Chargers and fantasy owners as early as their rookie season. Even if San Diego choses to bolster their offensive line with their first pick and waits until the next couple rounds to address their need at running back, there are many other tailbacks available that could make an impact in San Diego including Tavin Coleman from Indiana and Jay Ajaji from Boise State.

No matter which way the Chargers’ front office decides to go, the path to playing time is clear in San Diego. As long as their front office can address the holes along the offensive line, a rookie tailback could be in line for a nice season in San Diego. Dynasty owners should keep a close eye on the Chargers backfield in the coming weeks.

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dan meylor