The OTHER Quarterback Prospects

Dan Meylor

petty

The widespread consensus is that the quarterback talent in the 2015 NFL draft doesn’t run very deep once you get past Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. That sentiment has spread to the dynasty community where very few have voiced support of any of the signal callers vying to be the third quarterback taken in the draft. Every year however, there are dynasty owners in need of a developmental prospect at the position. With all that in mind, I decided to take a close look at the passers looking to be the third quarterback in this draft class.

Brett Hundley, QB UCLA

The first thing that comes to mind with Hundley and his time at UCLA is the damage he did with his legs. After all, in his three seasons as a starter for the Bruins he averaged 160 carries per season and scored 30 touchdowns on the ground. Hundley was also quite proficient through the air, however.

hundley1

As you can see from the stats above, Hundley was more than just a “running quarterback” in college. His completion percentage improved and his interceptions decreased with each season that passed. While it’s true that the offense he played in at UCLA was very quarterback friendly and didn’t challenge him regularly to make multiple reads to find open receivers, he made steady improvement and ran the offense nearly to perfection in his final year on campus.

Although Hundley played in an offense that kept him primarily in the shotgun, it was obvious in 2014 that he was working to refine his pocket presence. In his first two seasons as the Bruins signal caller, he’d often bail from the pocket as soon as he sensed any pressure or saw a rushing lane. Last year he hung in the pocket much more though, showing patience in his receivers to break free. Also far more willing to take a hit in the pocket so he could deliver the ball to an open target, he showed toughness and leadership as a junior.

While his strong arm, ability to avoid the rush in the pocket to deliver the ball, and leadership skills are impressive, it’s still very obvious at this point that Hundley’s biggest asset is his legs.

hundley2

With impressive speed (4.63 40-yard dash) for his size (6’3”, 223 pounds), he possesses the ability to escape the pocket and extend plays. While he often ran on designed runs from the shotgun, most of his biggest plays in college came when scrambling from the pocket. Although he’s no Michael Vick as a runner, he’s still very elusive in the open field, often using pump fakes and jukes to dupe defenders.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

It’s obvious Hundley has the size, arm strength, leadership skills and running abilities to be considered a potential future NFL starter, but there are still many things he must improve to be successful. On top of developing the ability to read defenses and go through progressions, he must learn to deliver the ball with more urgency. Holding the ball and relying on his feet too much to get out of sticky situations at UCLA was a weakness. Hundley also is one of the most inaccurate running quarterbacks I’ve ever seen outside the pocket, rivalling Tim Tebow for that distinguishment.

Despite being widely considered the top quarterback prospect outside of Winston and Mariota, I’m not quite as sure Hundley is such a slam dunk. Running quarterbacks with undeveloped abilities when it comes to reading defenses rarely make an impact in the NFL. When you add his unfamiliarity to playing the position from under center as well as his inaccuracy when on the move, it’s unlikely to me that we’ll ever see him as a useful NFL starter or fantasy asset.

Bryce Petty, QB Baylor

Probably the most promising prospect among the seniors in this draft class, Petty reminds me of Blake Bortles every time I see him play. He had a bit of a down season in 2014 after an incredible year as a junior, but still has upside to be a riser as the draft approaches.

petty

Despite his numbers dipping in his senior season, Petty was still very impressive throwing the ball. He possesses a quick, smooth release and natural throwing motion that is extremely easy on the eyes. With plenty of arm strength to hit a streaking receiver down the sideline or slam the ball between defenders in the middle of the field, very few will question his arm strength.

Petty also has good accuracy, mastering the slant while at Baylor with his lightning fast release and pin point control on short, quick throws. He also improved dramatically in his time in college with his deep accuracy. Knowing exactly when to put air under the ball and when to get it there quickly, he became lethal in the deep passing game over his two years as a starter in Waco.

Although he’s not an elusive runner, Petty displays great footwork no matter where he is on the field. He can slide within the confines of the pocket to buy time to deliver a pass and is serviceable on the perimeter as a runner when he’s forced to tuck the ball.

Despite being ultra-productive on Saturdays, many question whether Petty’s numbers were inflated due to the offense he played in at Baylor and relatively easy schedule the Bears faced. While I share the concerns of many that he wasn’t asked to make multiple reads to dissect quality defenses while in college, it’s also very evident that he has the arm talent, leadership, size and desire to be a successful NFL starting quarterback.

It seems to me that Petty’s dip in production this past year had far more to do with the back injury he suffered last season. He was impressive throwing the ball at the combine and reportedly graded out well in team interviews. Petty’s stock seems to be slowly rising. It wouldn’t surprise me if he were the third signal caller selected in the NFL draft and there’s no doubt in my mind that his upside lies as an NFL starter that could contribute to fantasy teams as a low-end QB1.

Garrett Grayson, QB Colorado State

The only other quarterback legitimately competing at this point for the number three spot among rookie passers is Grayson, who wasn’t even on my radar until this year when he put up some impressive numbers for the Colorado State Rams.

grayson

After getting the chance to watch Grayson, I realized there are some things to like about him as a developmental prospect. Despite having just average arm strength, he throws a very nice deep ball with accuracy. In his final year at Colorado State, he showed the ability to drop passes flawlessly into receiver’s arms over the top of the defense. Putting the perfect amount of air under the ball, his vertical passing is quite impressive.

Grayson also has a very good mechanics inside the pocket after the snap. He looks natural in his drop and avoids pressure while keeping his eyes downfield. Showing toughness and grit, he stands tall and is willing to take a hit while delivering the ball to a receiver.

Like all mid-round quarterback prospects though, Grayson has deficiencies to his game. His release is slow and elongated due to him having to bring the ball behind his head to generate power in his throws which didn’t cause a lot of problems in the Mountain West Conference but in the NFL, will allow pass rushers to get to him and defensive backs to make up lost ground on receivers. Grayson also struggles with accuracy on short to intermediate passes far too often and doesn’t display the ability to quickly move through his progressions consistently.

Although he will be drafted by a team looking to develop a quarterback his upside most likely lies as a backup, therefore it will be an uphill battle for him to be a useful fantasy player. Most likely, he needs at least a couple years to improve at reading defenses and will need to develop better accuracy and anticipation when delivering the ball in the quick passing game. Unless your rosters are incredibly deep, he should most likely go undrafted in most dynasty leagues.

Summary

After taking a close look at each of the three quarterbacks vying to be selected after Winston and Mariota, it’s obvious to me that it’s down to just two prospects – Hundley and Petty. Based only on Petty’s senior season, it’s very close between them. When you factor in Petty’s impressive junior season and his back injury as a senior though, it’s obvious to me that Petty has the greatest upside.

Although each of the other eight rankers here at DLF have Hundley ranked as the number three quarterback prospect in this rookie class at this point, I’m staying firm on my believe that Petty should be the third quarterback taken in the NFL draft – as well as your dynasty league’s rookie draft.

[/am4show]

dan meylor