Dynasty Capsule: Tampa Bay Bucs
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
The big question for this off-season for Bucs fans and dynasty owners with Bucs players is, “Will they select a quarterback with the first pick in the NFL draft?” The selection could be huge for the near future of Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson.
Let’s take a closer look at the current roster in today’s dynasty capsule.
Quarterbacks
Mike Glennon
Glennon has two seasons under his belt as an NFL player and he has quickly turned into the type of player where you get what you see and not much else. Glennon is a big guy with a big arm, sporadic accuracy and a lack of mobility in the pocket. If the Bucs had a pick in the middle of the first round, I would think giving Glennon another year to develop and show what he has would be plausible, but that isn’t the case. The Bucs have the first overall pick and their choice of two of the better quarterback prospects in recent years. In 1 QB leagues, Glennon is nearly unownable. In fact, he’s actually not recommended outside the deepest of leagues or in leagues featuring superflex formats.
A Quarterback to be Named Later
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There are about 4,345 pros and cons to selecting Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. Mariota comes with on the field concerns on how his game will translate at the next level and Winston has had his fair share of off the field concerns- there are upwards of 10 Publix locations in the Tampa Bay area. Recent reports indicate Winston is the Buccaneers man at #1 overall. Either way, I think both are easily an immediate upgrade over Glennon, which can only be good for the rest of the weapons in the Buccaneers offense.
Running Backs
Doug Martin
Martin has had an interesting first three years in the NFL. Everyone remembers his breakout rookie year with upwards of 1,900 total yards that skyrocketed him up to the top of dynasty startups. A pair of injury riddled campaigns where he totaled just 17 games later, Martin is being drafted around the late 7th-8th in startups. The Buccaneers offensive line didn’t do Martin any favors even when he was healthy, but he did finish the season on a high note with a pair of strong performances – 14 carries for 96 yards against Carolina and 19 carries for 108 yards against New Orleans. More important than the box score, Martin appeared to look more like he did in his rookie year. I don’t expect the Buccaneers to use a draft pick at running back (I didn’t last year, so what do I know) and I expect Martin to be the lead back as long as he is healthy. Will he ever put up the numbers he put up in his rookie year? No. But I think he is a good value in redraft and dynasty leagues right now and I think he is one of those players whose trade value may actually be a tad lower than actual ADP.
Charles Sims
I wasn’t a fan of Charles Sims predraft and I certainly wasn’t a fan when my hometown team used a third round pick at a position that I considered one of their few strengths. Despite my bias, Sims in an interesting player to monitor in dynasty leagues this off-season. Unlike Martin, Sims was drafted by the current regime of Lovie Smith/Jason Licht, but a hand injury all but ended Sims’ rookie campaign before it started. He did play in the final eight games, but he never really got anything going, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on 66 carries. He was touted for his receiving potential coming into the league and the silver lining to his season was the fact he averaged ten yards per catch on 19 receptions.
Bobby Rainey
Rainey was the main reason I was so upset about the Sims pick (move on Nathan, it has been almost a year). I’m a believer in Rainey’s talent and think he could be a very solid RB2 for a team and a good option when bye weeks/injuries afflict fantasy teams. The drafting of Sims shows the Bucs aren’t as confident in Rainey’s skills and he will likely be put on the backburner unless one of the Martin/Sims tandem gets injured. Rainey is worth a stash in deeper leagues, but in 12-team, 24 player leagues, it will be hard to keep Rainey on your roster after adding the 2015 rookies.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans
Between free agency and the draft, Jason Licht’s first offseason as a GM was fairly disappointing. The one thing he did do right was select Mike Evans at #7 overall in the 2014 draft. Evans had an unbelievable rookie year and the future looks very bright for the 21-year old. Evans bullied defensive backs all season, catching 68 passes for 1,051 yards and a team record 12 touchdowns. Evans was incredibly sought after in dynasty from the get-go, but his value has risen even higher where he is now being selected in the top eight of dynasty startups. The possibility of a big upgrade at quarterback looms large for Evans and his prospects 2015 and beyond. Whether it is Winston or Mariota, it will be a fun combination to watch for years to come. I think Evans is well worth his price in startups, but attempting to acquire him via trade may be a fools errand with owners holding a tight grip on the receiver who has the ability to be a WR1 in fantasy for the next ten years.
Vincent Jackson
Early off-season rumblings had me wondering whether Jackson would be a Buccaneer in 2015. Licht has come out and said that they plan on keeping him this year and through the end of his contract in 2016. Jackson clearly took a backseat to Evans in 2014, but that doesn’t mean Jackson is no longer a usable fantasy asset. I’ve talked about this with people on Twitter and forums, I don’t see Jackson ever finishing as higher than a WR3 in fantasy ever again – that isn’t really an indictment on Jackson, it just shows how deep the position is in todays NFL and how hard it is to finish as a top 24 wide receiver. Jackson is cheap enough and a good target for teams looking to fill a hole at WR3/4 or for those looking to add depth as insurance.
Robert Herron/Louis Murphy
The fact I’m even putting these two in this article shows the Bucs do have a hole at the slot wide receiver position. I could see the Bucs targeting Jameis Winston’s teammate Rashad Greene in the third round or picking up Tampa product Andre Davis in the late rounds or in undrafted free agency. Robert Herron had just six catches in his rookie year, but if the Bucs don’t pick up another receiver in the draft or free agency, he may get a chance to prove himself worthy of the sixth round selection the Bucs used on him in 2014. Either way, as of today, Evans and Jackson are the only two wide receivers worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues.
Tight End
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Rookie tight ends almost never do anything in regards to fantasy, so it wasn’t exactly a surprise when Seferian-Jenkins put up mediocre numbers, tallying 21 receptions for 221 yards and two touchdowns as he battled injuries throughout his rookie season. If he remains healthy, I would expect a big leap forward in his sophomore year. ASJ is the third member of the “Dunkaneers,” the trio of 6’5” receivers should be great for whichever quarterback the Bucs select. ASJ is the only tight end worth rostering in dynasty leagues and from a value perspective, he is bunched in that large tier after Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. The low-end TE1 market is ever fluctuating and ASJ could be anywhere between TE4 and TE14 in 12 months and I wouldn’t shocked at either side of the spectrum.
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- Dynasty Commish Calendar: August - August 5, 2023
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- Dynasty Commish Calendar: May - May 3, 2023
