Dynasty Capsule: New Orleans Saints
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
A simple glance at the aggregated offensive stats would lead one to believe the Saints were every bit the juggernaut in 2014 that they were the year before. Quarterback Drew Brees flirted with 5,000 passing yards and again surpassed 30 touchdowns, and the run game had nearly 350 more yards, with an additional six scores added on top. Unfortunately, in large part due to a bottom-basement defense (31st in total yards against) there was nothing to celebrate in the Bayou outside of Mardi Gras, as the Saints finished 7-9 and outside of the playoffs for just the second time since 2009. Let’s assess the main players in the disappointing year that was.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees
As even casual fans of the game know, the quarterback position in New Orleans begins and ends with Brees. He was the only signal caller to record a statistic in 2014, and dating back to the 2010 season only 10 passes were attempted by the other passers on the roster. And given the numbers produced by the diminutive man under center, it’s hard to argue with that logic.
Indeed Brees did produce, although his year could certainly be described as uneven. Compared to 2013 his completion percentage and passing scores decreased, while the interceptions rose to just a shade over one per game. For those of us who play in leagues with yardage bonuses, it was also important to note Brees had three fewer 300-yard performances as well.
With that said, it’s tough to argue against the guy who was the overall QB5 on the season, despite getting only 10 games out of his prize rookie receiver and four fully healthy contests from his all-world tight end. With all of his weapons returning for another season, it’s fair to expect even better numbers come 2015. Despite his 36 years of age, I have Brees ranked as my dynasty QB6 and a tier-three quarterback.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Running Backs
Mark Ingram
I know I’m in the minority, but I refuse to don a party hat and pop the champagne for Ingram’s long-awaited “breakout.” He put up good numbers early on in the season, culminating in a 172-yard performance (7.2 YPC) in a drubbing of the Packers. After that point, Ingram could only muster 3.8 YPC the rest of the season, despite facing a league-average slate of run defenses (according to Pro Football Focus) and having the luxury of playing with one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks under center.
He was more active in the passing game and caught 80.6% of his looks, but only for a pitiful 4.03 yards-per-target. To me, this highlights a lack of speed and wiggle, which is also evidenced by a year-long run of only 31 yards, as well as the fact his teammates ran with better efficiency. Nevertheless, hope springs eternal amongst the dynasty community for the free-agent-to-be.
Ingram is currently ranked as DLF’s overall RB20, which seems too high for me given that a likely unsustainable 27.8% of his PPR points came from touchdowns. Given the Saints’ embarrassingly poor cap situation there’s little chance he’ll be back in the Big Easy, and despite dreams of increased volume I just can’t view leaving a prolific offense in a weak defensive division as a good thing. I have Ingram ranked as my dynasty RB38 – simply put, I just don’t think he’s all that good.
Pierre Thomas
Despite missing five games, Thomas was again the model of efficiency, finishing as the PPR RB34. Making his hay through the air, the PT Cruiser came equipped with a weekly floor of 7.5 PPR points solely from the passing game, averaging 4.1 receptions per contest. Unfortunately, the good times might soon be over as Thomas was released today in a cap-clearing maneuver – based on this recent information, I now rank Thomas as my dynasty RB63.
Travaris Cadet
Essentially functioning as the amalgam of Thomas and the departed Darren Sproles, Cadet had 3.8 times as many receptions as rushes in 2014. Though he failed to run with purpose in his few attempts, Cadet corralled 74.5% of his passes and was actually the team’s sixth-leading receiver. With the news of Thomas’ release, it’s fair to wonder if bigger plans are in the works for the former UDFA – I’ve now bumped him up to a ranking of my dynasty RB53.
Khiry Robinson
Following Ingram’s multi-week absence early in the season, K-Rob got his chance as the Saints’ feature back. Over the course of three games he turned 47 carries into 245 yards (5.2 YPC) and a touchdown, but then succumbed to an injury of his own, missing the end of October and all of November. Despite that Robinson was the Saints’ second-leading rusher on the year, averaging a robust 4.8 YPC over 76 attempts. As he now represents the only “hammer back” under contract, it’s not a huge stretch to imagine he parlays that into a bigger 2015. I have him ranked as my dynasty RB30, with room to grow.
Wide Receivers
Marques Colston
Be it due to age, cumulative injury effect, lack of opportunity or simply the general dysfunction of the offense, Colston took a measured step back from his 2013 numbers. He only recorded two 100-yard performances on the season, while also being held to 60 or fewer yards a whopping nine times. Speaking to the usage alluded to in the first sentence, the venerable pass catcher had six or fewer targets in nine games as well.
Perhaps most disappointingly, Colston failed to take advantage of the injuries to his teammates, with Brees defining a spread-the-wealth offense with six players over 50 targets. He got a slight bump when Brandin Cooks departed, averaging a weekly 4.2/61.0 (while also scoring four of his five touchdowns), but even this late “surge” could only propel him to a final ranking as the PPR WR36. With the end clearly in sight and the Saints in cap-trimming mode, I have Colston rated as my dynasty WR68.
Kenny Stills
On the other side of the coin from Colston was the ascendant sophomore Stills. Building on a strong rookie season Stills led the team in receiving, flirting with 1,000 yards while also nearly doubling his reception total. Though his YPC dropped off significantly, that’s a tradeoff owners should be willing to make given Stills’ dramatically enhanced role in the offense. With Colston in decline and Cooks still limited to the line of scrimmage, Stills should continue his upward trend into 2015 – I have him ranked as my dynasty WR42 with even more upward mobility possible.
Brandin Cooks
Continuing with the talented young pass catchers, Cooks was one of the top fantasy rookie receivers (fourth in rookie PPR PPG; 23rd overall amongst qualifying players) before succumbing to season-ending broken thumb. Though he was never allowed to truly explore and take advantage of his deep speed, Cooks caught 75.7% of his targets while being asked to function primarily in the short passing game. As such his touchdowns left something to be desired, with only three in ten games.
Additionally, Cooks pitched in 73 yards and a fourth score on the ground, although he never truly acted as the Percy Harvin-lite weapon we were led to believe in the off-season. Nevertheless, he clearly gained Brees’ trust early, and offered a robust PPR floor of 12.3 PPG. As he becomes more acclimated with the offense I expect Cooks to be utilized in a more diverse manner, and it’s this theoretical upside that leads me to rank him as my dynasty WR17.
Nick Toon
As long as Colston sticks around, it’s tough to see Toon possessing any sort of fantasy viability. He was only the ninth-most targeted player on the team, and while he largely made good on them (9.34 YPT) and came alive towards the end of the season, he’s still well down the totem pole. Heading into the last year of his contract, I have a tough time believing the soon-to-be free agent is in line for any sort of breakout – I have him ranked just outside my top-100 dynasty receivers.
Joseph Morgan
The deep threat was cut late in the season and has yet to resurface.
Robert Meachem
Essentially a worse version of Morgan, Meachem doesn’t belong anywhere within sneezing distance of a dynasty roster.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham
I highlighted Graham earlier this year in a DLF Mailbag, and I’d like to reiterate my findings here. Put succinctly, a shoulder injury suffered in a week five clash against the Bucs definitively altered his production, as the erstwhile overall top dynasty TE was scoring 21.0 PPR PPG in the four games prior, and only 14.4 PPR PPG during the rest of the season. Even still Graham finished the season as the PPR TE2, while securing double-digit touchdowns for the third time in four years.
While it’s my belief he’s fallen behind a healthy Rob Gronkowski in the tight end pecking order, recency bias could provide a narrow window to buy up Graham at a discount. According to the most recent ADP data he’s going as the 17th player overall, which is very nearly a full round later than at this point last year. I have Graham ranked in a tier of his own as my dynasty TE2, and am expecting a big bounce-back next season.
Josh Hill
More of an annoyance to Graham owners than anything, Hill was the ultimate vulture last season. To that point, five of his 14 receptions (35.7%) went for scores, cementing him as the 2014 version of Joe Fauria. With Graham ostensibly returning healthy, last year could go down as the high-water mark for the young backup. As a 2016 free agent he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues, but as of this writing I don’t have him ranked amongst my top-50 dynasty tight ends.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: How Much Should You Factor in Off-Field Issues? - April 9, 2024
