Dynasty Capsule: Buffalo Bills

Jacob Feldman

billscapsule

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

The Bills are seemingly and up and coming team. We break down the dynasty talent in today’s focus.

Quarterbacks

EJ Manuel

One of the biggest concerns for the Bills is exactly who will be under center for the 2015 season. They really don’t have a much at the quarterback position. Manuel struggled so much over the first month of the season that he was benched one year after being a first round pick. With the new coaching staff coming into Buffalo, Manuel will likely get another chance to be the face of the franchise, but I’m not expecting a vastly different result on the remix.

He has roughly a full season of games under his belt as the starter and he a career completion percentage under 60%, under 2,900 passing yards and 16 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions. I think Manuel was vastly overdrafted and forced into the starting role out of necessity and he wasn’t up to the challenge. Even though the new staff is talking up Manuel, I think they will go a different direction very soon. They will likely bring in veteran competition in the Kyle Orton role once again and either address the position in the draft in 2015 or 2016.

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Jeff Tuel

After two average at best performances in 2013, Tuel received another chance in the 2014 preseason. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t take advantage of the opportunity. He largely checked down time after time, still only completing about two thirds of his passes, and with a one to one touchdown to interception ratio. His overall talent is more in line with career backups than someone who will lead a team. If you’re still holding him in 2QBs leagues you can probably move on.

Kyle Orton (Retired?)

Once again Kyle Orton is retired. If he were a better quarterback, we might have a Brett Favre situation on our hands again. Orton was a serviceable stop gap quarterback in 2014, but he clearly isn’t a long term answer. As the season went on and the weather became colder, Orton’s performance quickly dropped off. He had more interceptions than touchdowns over the last five games and was very hit or miss. His games in domes or warm weather he had over 300 yards passing while the games outside in the cold were all under 200 yards passing. Even if Orton does come back, he isn’t going to be anything more than an inconsistent QB2.

Running Backs

CJ Spiller (FA)

Rumors are already swirling about who might be interested in Spiller as a free agent. Some reports have said there is mutual interest in him coming back, but there are others saying Spiller is more interested in other teams. Personally, I think Spiller is going to follow the money or seek a playoff team. Either way he will be leaving Buffalo. He’ll turn 28 before the 2015 season and likely realizes this next contract could easily be his last.

From a talent perspective, you need to like what Spiller can do, but at this point in his career it is time to realize what he actually has been and stop focusing on his “potential.” Spiller has been most productive as a committee back, getting about 10-14 carries a game. Even with that, he has struggled to stay healthy. If he can, he can be a solid RB2 with that kind of workload thanks to his explosiveness. He is aging though, so some of that playmaking ability might start to slip away from him as speed based rushers tend to see as they approach 30.

Fred Jackson

The soon to be 34-year old running back seems to be the exception to the rule of 30 for running backs. He definitely isn’t as explosive as he once was, but he is extremely dependable. He gets what is blocked for him, pass protects quite well, and does a very nice job catching passes out of the backfield. He has one year left on his contract, and I think he’ll play it out before retiring if the Bills keep him on roster. I don’t think he can be the guy, but he could easily be a compliment to a young back for Buffalo or someone else and offer fantasy owners one more year of RB3/RB4 level production.

Anthony (Boobie) Dixon

One of two running backs added to the Bills’ roster in 2014, Dixon isn’t as young as most people think he is when they first think of him. He’ll turn 28 just after the season starts, limiting his long term appeal. In 2014, Dixon helped take some of the early down load off of Jackson’s shoulders. For the most part, he looked very average. He didn’t make any plays by himself, didn’t make a lot of defenders miss, and didn’t look overly explosive. He also wasn’t used in the passing game, which further limits his upside. While he could be used as an early down back to help replace Jackson, I don’t see him playing a significant role because of the limited talent.

Bryce Brown

Another poster child for why you shouldn’t overpay based solely on “potential,” Brown has been a pretty big disappointment over his career outside of the two-game stretch with the Eagles during his rookie season. Brown continues to show the same issues he showed in previous years. He is a little careless with the football and struggles to run between the tackles. With that said, he also has the best athletic ability of the group outside of Spiller. There is a chance the Bills could use Brown in a committee with Jackson and/or Dixon, but I’m more inclined to think the Bills look elsewhere for their running back of the future.

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins

A top two rookie receiver by pretty much everyone’s estimation prior to the 2014 season, Watkins wasn’t one of the rookie stars. He was out produced in pretty much every way by Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and, of course, Odell Beckham Jr. In some ways he was even behind Jarvis Landry (receptions) and Jordan Matthews (touchdowns). For this reason, I’ve heard some people saying Watkins is a disappointment or even a bust – that isn’t anywhere near the truth. His 65 receptions for 982 yards and six touchdowns are very good for a rookie year and would have lead the class in most seasons. 2014 was just a bit of a fluke year when it comes to rookie wide receivers.

I didn’t see anything from Watkins during his rookie season which changed my view of him. He is and continues to be a very good, but not elite option at the wide receiver position. He has the skill set to be the top option on a NFL team and to be a back end WR1 on fantasy rosters. However, I don’t think he has the dominate skill set required to be a true elite player at the position. His progression might be slowed a little bit by the lack of a quarterback, but I expect him to be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside even without a quality quarterback. Those who are patient enough to wait out the quarterback situation will be rewarded with a back-in WR1 in a few years.

Robert Woods

After Watkins, there really isn’t a whole lot in the way of pass catchers on the Bills. Most of the other players would be reserves not starters on most other NFL teams. That means most of these players have very limited, short term appeal for fantasy owners. There are a few people who might disagree with me on labeling a few of these players this way, but I don’t really see much long term value on the Bills other than Watkins.

The closest to an exception to that statement is Woods. I’ve never been as high on Woods as some others. When I look at him, I see a very average NFL talent. If I were to rank all of the NFL receivers in terms of talent, he wouldn’t make my top 50. I think he’s more likely to fall to third on the wide receiver depth chart for the Bills once they add a little bit more talent. While he had 65 receptions last year, it was mostly due to a lack of other options. He was just shy of 700 yards on those 65 receptions, which isn’t a good yards per reception number. Long term, I think Woods has the upside of a WR4 in fantasy leagues. He isn’t anything exceptional from a talent perspective and the lack of a quarterback hurts him more than it hurts Watkins.

Chris Hogan

People might not realize this, but 2014 was Hogan’s fourth year in the league and his third with the Bills. He had previously been used almost exclusively on special teams. With Mike Williams fizzling out, he was given a chance to play receiver this year. He managed to haul in 41 passes for 426 yards and four touchdowns, but he faded down the stretch. Over his last six games, he had only 119 yards. He was merely the next man up and not worthy of a roster spot in all but the deepest of leagues.

Marquise Goodwin

A favorite sleeper pick of some when he was drafted in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Goodwin is a true speedster. He is only 5’9” and around 180 pounds, but his sub 4.3 second wheels are a definite weapon. Unfortunately for him and his fans, he had only one catch in 2014 even though the Bills really had no one of note ahead of him on the depth chart. To make matters worse, he only had eight total touches on the season, and that includes special teams. He is definitely looking like a third round bust for the Bills.

Tight Ends

Scott Chandler

There are a lot of football fans who wouldn’t be able to tell you the starting tight end for the Bills for the last few years – that role belongs to Chandler. He is one of, if not the biggest tight ends in the league. He knows how to block in both the passing and rushing game and he has decent hands for a tight end. Unfortunately, he isn’t very athletic and the Bills aren’t a good enough offense to be in the red zone very often – this drastically limits his upside. He had only three games over 40 receiving yards in 2014. The almost 30-year old could easily be pushed to a blocking only role if the Bills manage to find an athletic tight end in free agency or the draft.

Chris Gragg

I mentioned the Bills need an athletic tight end. There is a very slim chance Gragg could be that guy. He was a seventh round selection in 2013 who fits more of the move tight end role. Unfortunately, he has struggled with his transition to the NFL and only has 12 receptions in his two years in the league. He has solid speed, but that’s about it. If you’re holding out hope he turns into something, I think you could probably find a lot better fliers. There really isn’t much to see here.

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jacob feldman