Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Mark Ingram, RB NO
The NFL free agency period is always entertaining. Reporters, analysts and fans constantly weigh in on which players they believe will be signed by teams. Most fantasy owners are left praying and hoping their guys end up in the best situations to maximize their value. DLF’s Eric Olinger weighed in on current free agent Mark Ingram
I’m very interested in where Mark Ingram goes in free agency. Due to my heavy dynasty shares I pray he goes to Dallas or Indy.
— Eric Olinger (@OlingerIDP) February 24, 2015
Atlanta & Baltimore would be solid options for Ingram too.
— Eric Olinger (@OlingerIDP) February 24, 2015
New Orleans Saints ESPN reporter Mike Triplett recently wrote he believed Ingram’s market value would likely make it tough for the team to re-sign him but also felt the decision would be close. Despite missing three games in 2014, Ingram put up his best numbers to date. Particularly when the Saints had injuries to Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson, Ingram shined and carried the load well. He also registered 29 catches on 30 targets in 2014, which more than doubled his production in the receiving game over the previous three seasons combined. I would assume Ingram would want to receive more of a featured role and the teams that Eric listed would appear to be good fits. With uncertainty around his future team it makes it difficult to rank him from a dynasty perspective. Currently the DLF team has him at 19th overall amongst running backs and that number could climb or drop once he signs. While he did show he could put up numbers when given work, his career average yards per carry sits at 4.2. He is not an explosive player breaking big plays and would rely on goal line opportunities to score. If it comes out that he is going to be moving on from the Saints I would be more apt to buy on the player than if he remains with the team.
Dwayne Allen, TE IND
Indianapolis Colts tight end Dwayne Allen was amazingly reliable at scoring touchdowns in 2014. His fantasy owners were rewarded on a weekly basis with solid production for a player they likely paid nothing for. In 2013, Allen had a hip injury in the first game that forced him to miss the entire year so expectations were minimal with not much history to build upon. There was also running mate Coby Fleener who many were projecting a big year from as a favorite target of Andrew Luck. Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay tweeted why you may not want to lower expectations moving forward.
Dwayne Allen caught all six of his end zone targets last season. That’s not even close to sustainable. http://t.co/6Yfvvz2b45 #Colts
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) February 24, 2015
I highly suggest reading the article linked in the tweet with an in-depth breakdown on Dwayne Allen and why you need to think twice before counting on 2014 success to repeat. One point Mike also made was that Allen is a great blocking tight end and one of the few who grade well in both pass and run blocking under PFF’s ratings. Allen is very much a replaceable asset in fantasy, so if you can move him to an owner who is buying top 15 or higher potential sell away.
Charles Johnson, WR MIN
There has been a lot of hype around Vikings receiver Charles Johnson recently as Nick Mensio noted,
#Vikings OC on Charles Johnson: He’s “far and away our best receiver.” The hype train keeps on picking up steam: http://t.co/loQu1nmqKZ
— Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) February 18, 2015
[inlinead]It can never hurt when your offensive coordinator thinks you are the best receiver on the team. Then again when you are comparing to a soon to be 32-year old Greg Jennings and ineffective route runner in Cordarrelle Patterson it may not mean as much. After taking on the starting spot last season, Charles averaged six targets, 3.5 catches and 59 yards per game with two total touchdowns. Those stats are nothing to get excited about but he did produce some meaningful fantasy performances. You could assume though that Teddy Bridgewater continues to improve in year two and an entire season as the starter could produce better numbers. One negative is that he will be turning 26 this Friday and is only six months younger than a guy like Golden Tate. DLF’s Ryan McDowell shared his jump in dynasty ADP and this is where I would start to hesitate.
Charles Johnson is on the rise #dynasty #ADP cc: @FFGator pic.twitter.com/zhpS6l4JyD
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) February 25, 2015
Even with improvement in 2015, I feel a high end WR3 feels like his ceiling and the recent excitement for Johnson likely has him too rich for my liking. But..
Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN
Another Viking receiving praise on the Twitter timelines was Johnson’s quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Both Chris Wesseling and Pat Thorman highlighted the rookie’s finish to the 2014 season this past week.
No. 1 QB over last 5 weeks of the season, per @PFF: Teddy Bridgewater pic.twitter.com/xiVcXbujFc
— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) February 18, 2015
Teddy’s last 6 games: Top Acc% Top Acc% under pressure 10th-best FF pt/dropback 6th-most TD on 21st-most att @PFF ‘s 2nd-best passing grade
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) February 24, 2015
The PFF ratings are definitely a popular tool that many, including myself, in the fantasy community utilize. The one thing to remember though is that they encompass the entire player in regards to penalties, batted pass, sacks, etc. As a fantasy owner you do not need a perfect quarterback, you just need one that will keep chucking and put up numbers. Over the last five games of the season Bridgewater averaged only 246 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game. Those stats over an entire year are similar to Joe Flacco’s 2014 campaign where he finished around the 13th best QB in fantasy. Bridgewater’s efficiency down the stretch though made up for the fact that he averaged only 28 pass attempts per game, which would be 6.5 less per game than Flacco. Tony Romo averaged around 28 attempts per game last season, but he had Dez Bryant catching touchdowns making up for his reduced attempts and yards. Out of all the rookie quarterbacks from 2014, Teddy is likely the only one you want to really invest heavily in. Currently his average ranking is around 9th overall at the quarterback position and I could easily see a case to move him ahead of a guy like Matthew Stafford based on youth. He offers value as a low end QB1 or high end QB2 but I will need to see increased attempts or better receiving weapons to value him as anything more.
Andre Ellington, RB ARI
The good vibes continued this week with Cardinals running back Andre Ellington receiving a vote of confidence from his head coach as Jarrett Behar shared,
Int-er-est-ing #Cardinals RT @Cardschatter: Arians: Andre Ellington is still the focal point of the offense.
— Eye of the Gator (@EyeoftheGator) February 19, 2015
Ellington started the year off solid and the most important thing fantasy owners loved was all of the touches Arizona was giving him. His week five performance against the Broncos where he took a swing pass 81 yards for a touchdown showed big play ability that stuck in the minds of many. As Adam Levitan tweeted, those carries began to take their toll.
ARZ gave 199-pound Andre Ellington 20.5 touches/gm. He broke down badly, averaging 3.28 YPC while battling injuries. Shut down after 12 gms.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) February 19, 2015
The yards per carry were horrendous and scoring opportunities on the Cardinals were also minimal. As Graham Barfield tweeted the ability to break the long play was actually not Andre’s forte either.
Andre Ellington forced only 20 missed tackles on 247 touches last year (0.08 MT/touch). 5th lowest rate among 56 RBs: http://t.co/TSFwcX4Sa1
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) February 19, 2015
If you want some perspective on the missed tackles, everyone’s favorite punching bag Trent Richardson forced 29 missed tackles last season on 43 fewer carries! Trent Richardson, folks. The Cardinals’ GM also mentioned recently he wanted Ellington to put on more weight to last an entire season. We have seen where added weight is not necessarily an added bonus for a runner. I can understand why the Cardinals are happy to say all the right things now but I would be highly surprised if Ellington is not sharing the load more in ’15. Personally I would be divesting in my Ellington stock and would take a player like C.J. Anderson straight up.
Draft Advice
Graham Barfield delivered some good advice that I often see many of the dynasty analysts I follow on Twitter echo. It is much easier to build a contender with the best players than a complete roster of good ones. So if you still have drafts coming up I would reiterate Graham’s sentiments.
In dynasty the optimum way to approach a rookie draft is taking the best player(s) available. It doesn’t matter what your roster looks like.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) February 25, 2015
If you draft solely on need, and not BPA, it will minimize the utility of the pick(s). Trade out or package players/picks for need, etc.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) February 25, 2015
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
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- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
