DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

It’s cliche to say, but this time of year really is when dynasty championships are won. There are plenty of news stories to get your leaguemates fired up, and in many cases, they should be.

Some dynasty owners believe in “letting the dust settle” before they make any sudden moves. Others will overreact to every story ESPN posts, no matter how speculative it is. The goal is, and should always be, to react accordingly, although it’s tougher to accomplish than it is to practice.

You can use your opponents lack of a proper reaction to your advantage, though. If your buddy hears a news story which links Adrian Peterson to the Dallas Cowboys, and you own Peterson, casually mention how much better Peterson would do behind that offensive line. Assuming you have Peterson in this scenario, you may be able to sell him for a premium.

Some of your opponents may underreact, though. They can be taken advantage of as well. If your opponent has Jerick McKinnon and Peterson is rumored to leave town (mentioned later in this article), you can buy McKinnon at a cheaper price considering your opponents underreaction. These examples may work, or they may not, but the key is to learn about your opponents to determine their level of reaction to news. If you think it’s not an proper reaction, exploit the situation.

Now let’s review the news of the week, so you may attempt to capitalize on your adversary.

Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

News: According to CBS Sports, a source close to Peterson says he will never play another snap for the Minnesota Vikings. This news coming shortly after a reported “verbal incident” between Peterson’s agent and Vikings’ management.

Analysis: The facts haven’t surfaced into what happened between Peterson’s agent and team management, but it’s not surprising given the situation.

Most of us assumed it would be tough for Peterson to remain a Viking. When athletes get into trouble, existing fan bases tend to hold a grudge while existing fans are more forgiving. This seems to be more of the team holding a grudge, though.

Peterson has been linked to the Cowboys for months now, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Cowboys should do everything in their power to lock up the stud running back who rushed for more yards than anyone in team history. Before you ask, yes this is the same Cowboys franchise in which Emmitt Smith once ran for.

Peterson turns 30 in less than a month, and would be a wonderful addition to many teams’ backfields, but I find it much more likely he ends up in Buffalo or Oakland than in Dallas.

Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA

News: Per Yahoo! Sports, the Seattle Seahawks have offered Lynch a deal that would pay him over $20 million over the next two years with “$11 or $12 million in 2015.”

Analysis: Christine Michael owners are seemingly unsuccessful in their voodoo doll poking as it seems Lynch will be back for another year in Seattle.

“Beast Mode” shows no signs of slowing down as he averaged 4.7 YPC on his way to over 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns. The question with Lynch was never about talent, but longevity. One flaw of the dynasty community is we always want to write guys off before their time. As soon as Lynch turned 26, owners wanted to discover who’d be the “next big thing” in Seattle.

[inlinead]Here’s a general rule of thumb to dynasty owners: Superstars are going to play longer than your average, run-of-the-mill type players. Superstar running backs don’t lose their skill set at age 27 unless they have a severe injury. Sure you can say “most” players do, but not the special ones. There is one catch to this “rule,” you have to figure out who the special players really are. Oftentimes players are viewed as stars because of their longevity, or vice-versa. Sometimes players are viewed as “busts” because their career was shortened due to injury. Some players, like Lynch, we just should have known would play longer than many of us (myself included) gave him credit for.

This can be applied to a number of players, young and old. I’m seeing completely unproven players being drafted ahead of legit stars. In most startups, you’ll see a few rookies and suspicious sophomores taken over authentic stars such as Golden Tate and Jeremy Maclin. Both of these players have shown no sign of slowing down, yet they are no longer the shiny new toy.

DeAngelo Williams, RB CAR

News: The Carolina Panthers are set to release Williams.

Analysis: The champagne and orange juice bottles are popping in the Eric Hardter household.

This news is more about the prospects of the pheonix known as Jonathan Stewart, than it is about Williams. Most knew Williams’ dynasty stock was already near nil, but now Stewart may have the backfield to himself. The Panthers are likely to draft a back, but Stewart averaged 4.6 YPC last season, so there is definite room for optimism.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

News: In a PFT radio interview, Hopkins admitted to having wrist surgery this offseason to repair a torn ligament.

Analysis: Hopkins already had the pin in his wrist removed and is set to resume football activities in a few weeks.

If there were one news story to use to your advantage this week, it’s this one. Hopkins broke on to the scene as a rookie, catching 52 balls for over 800 yards. As a sophomore, he surpassed the 1,200 yard mark. If he has a similar statistical improvement in his third year, Hopkins will be viewed among the best receivers in the game.

Here’s your homework for the night: Contact the Hopkins owner in your league. Link them to a story about wrist surgeries and how complicated they can be, or something. Tell them how important a wrist is when catching a football. Do not, I repeat, do not try to buy Hopkins that night. Wait a few days. Then shoot the offer.

These are the thing that make dynasty fun for me. Some people are great at making spreadsheets and creating height/weight adjusted metrics, and those people are invaluable to the community. The great thing about this game we play, there are thousands of ways to win. My favorite way is taking my friend out to the bar, subtly mentioning why his best player is going to be a complete bust, then offering below market value for said player a week later after my friend forgot why he doesn’t like him anymore.

Happy shopping!

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