Dynasty Capsule: Kansas City Chiefs
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith
Trying to begin this piece, I actually found myself stuck on even finding a place to start. The more I think about Alex Smith, the more I see a guy who is not terribly good or bad at anything. His completion percentage in 2014 was solid at 65%. His average yards per attempt was in the bottom half of the league at 7.1, but it’s not like he was Derek Carr bad (5.5). His 18 touchdowns to six interceptions resulted in a better ratio than Andrew Luck, but Luck also threw for twice as many scores. He was eighth overall in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks with 254. The problem with that is that he had 431 yards rushing the prior season and does an average of 17 yards rushing per game really tip the scales in fantasy? He also managed to go an entire season without throwing a single touchdown pass to one of his receivers.
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The Kansas City offense was mostly underwhelming last season and if it were not for Jamaal Charles it could have rivaled for one of the worst in the leagues. Whether it is play calling or Smith himself, the ball does not move up and down the field with speed or consistency with him at the helm. When watching Smith, I see a player whose line definitely let him down at times, but also had “happy feet” in the pocket and often times missed or ignored open receivers more than ten yards down the field. The Chiefs appear fine with his “game manager” role and to expect his numbers to improve significantly moving forward is folly. Alex remains under contract through the 2018 season, though I would not expect the Chiefs to be paying him over $20 million in his final year.
From a fantasy perspective, Alex Smith finished around the 20th overall quarterback in 2014, only being considered a starter in the deepest of leagues. He likely could have been replaced with better streaming options during bye weeks as well. With his fantasy ceiling so low and the Chiefs likely representing the last team he will be a weekly NFL starter for you can essentially move on at any time.
Chase Daniel
Chase Daniel is essentially a watered down version of Alex Smith. In five NFL seasons, he has only attempted 75 passes. He did win his lone start last season for the Chiefs in week 17, but he accomplished that by completing 16 passes for 157 yards and, of course, no touchdowns. Daniel is under contract in 2015 and may still find work after that, but there is no reason he should be on fantasy rosters.
Aaron Murray
You would expect a little more fanfare from the SEC’s all-time leader in yards, completions and touchdowns. Be that as it may, Aaron Murray spent his rookie season in the NFL behind both Smith and Daniel. It will be interesting to see where Murray ends up on the depth chart this off-season and I could see him finding his way up to the number two spot. Smith is entrenched as the starter and without injury Murray will have no immediate value. Even if he were to be a starter in this offense, expecting more production that what is already represented is unlikely. He is worth a stash if you have the room as he enters his second year.
Terrelle Pryor
Terrelle Pryor was signed by the Chiefs after Tyler Bray suffered an ACL injury after the season. While he did show flashes with his legs for the Raiders in 2013, he spent the 2014 season as a backup in Seattle before being waived at the end of the season. His signing likely spells the end for Bray, but I would be surprised if he wound up the number two entering the year. Nothing to see here.
Running Backs
Jamaal Charles
Number 25 is good. That is the short of it when it comes to Jamaal Charles. He has been one of fantasy’s top running backs the last three seasons and likely helping many teams win championships. So, let me get a little negative when looking towards the future. First off, he is 28 and not getting younger – in dynasty leagues, that always comes into play. The Chiefs also saw to limit him more relying on the younger legs of Knile Davis. Charles’ total touches in 2014 were down around 75 from the prior two seasons. The limiting of touches is probably good for fantasy owners over the long run as Charles has shown the ability to break big plays and be productive. Jamaal also remains one of Kansas City’s best options to score putting up 19 and 14 total touchdowns the last two years. Being signed for the next three seasons you can likely expect low RB1 production as well in the coming years barring injury. Currently he is ranked as the number 5 overall running back by the DLF staff and I cannot see dropping him behind the younger backs like Jeremy Hill or Carlos Hyde at this time.
Knile Davis
If you happen to be the lucky owner of Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis is a necessity as a handcuff. The Chiefs relied on Davis more this season as his snaps increased over 80% from 2013 while total rushing attempts nearly doubled. When Charles was not in the game it was almost assuredly Davis taking reps as no other back played more than 75 snaps the entire season. Davis did score seven times this season taking some of the scoring opportunities from Charles, but he also posted a pedestrian 3.5 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus actually had him as their worst rated running back out of a qualifying 148 players. When looking only at the five games where he logged at least 10 carries in a game his average yards per carry jumped to a more respectable 4.1. I would expect his role to be similar this next season and while he could put up relevant fantasy scores on a weekly basis it will be hit or miss and dependent on scoring.
De’Anthony Thomas
The rookie from Oregon did not get much playing time his first season with the Chiefs. At only 5’8 and 175 pounds he will never become an every down running back running between the tackles. He could excel though in a role recently filled by Dexter McCluster catching short passes or designed runs. On only 14 attempts, Thomas averaged 8.1 yards per carry and also chipped in with another 23 catches. His explosiveness was mostly on display in the return game for the Chiefs, particularly when he broke an 80 yard return for a score against the Raiders. He is worth a stash in dynasty and if the Chiefs do not upgrade their receiving corps could see more action in 2015, but likely will need an injury ahead of him to see significant touches.
Cyrus Gray & Charcandrick West
Neither of these running backs saw any real action in 2014 and cannot see them becoming relevant for your fantasy squads any time soon.
Wide Receivers
Dwayne Bowe
You have to give it Bowe, he showed up once in a contract year and is being paid like one of the NFL’s top receivers. Unfortunately, his numbers are not backing up that contract. Over the last three seasons with the Chiefs he has averaged 59 receptions, 743 yards and 2.6 touchdowns. In 2014 he could not even be started as a WR3, but likely was riding the bench in every fantasy league. To top off his weekly ineptitude, he was also the clear WR1 on his team – no other receiver saw more than a third of the total snaps or targets Bowe did.
Thanks to a suspension to start the 2014, he also lost the guarantees on his fat contract and the word around Kansas City is that he will either have to greatly restructure or end up a cut casualty. Any change of scenery would be considered an upgrade, but he would also no longer be the top target. If you are currently an owner there is likely no way you can move him for an relevant players or picks. Best case scenario is that he finds a new home where he once again is playing for a contract and somehow can be a bye week/injury fill-in on your fantasy squad. If you are doing a startup dynasty league I would be passing on Bowe and looking for younger, flier-type players.
Albert Wilson
Rookie Albert Wilson started the year turning heads in training camp. His playmaking skills were on display that had made him a standout at Georgia State. Unfortunately, a high ankle sprain limited him early as he missed four games and was slow to insert himself into the offense. Over the last four games of the season Wilson emerged as the clear number two opposite Bowe. He was held without a catch in the final week against the Chargers, but the previous three efforts netted him an average of four catches for 70 yards per game. He also excelled in yards after the catch, averaging 7.5 during that span. The knock on Wilson is his size (5’9 and 200 pounds) and lack of elite level play. If Bowe is released, I doubt Wilson could become a number one and the Chiefs would continue to spread the ball around. Wilson is more of a stash play at this point, but again, weekly consistency may be difficult to depend on, particularly in this offense.
Donnie Avery
Donnie Avery played in only six games last season due to injuries and fell behind the younger prospects within the Chiefs receiving corps. He was a healthy scratch over the last three weeks and the Chiefs have cut ties with him.
Junior Hemingway, Da’Rick Rogers, Fred Williams, Corbin Louks and Armon Binns
The rest of the Chiefs receivers are underwhelming prospects within an underwhelming offense. I am not sure even Calvin Johnson could prove to be anything more than a low-end WR2 in Kansas City, so what chance do these guys have?
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
Everyone in the fantasy community asked for Andy Reid to “free” Travis Kelce in 2014. The second year pro has great size and speed and has been often times compared to Rob Gronkowski. Fantasy owners would have loved to see him running routes on every snap and dominating targets and defenders. In a way they got their wish. Over the first eight games of 2014, Anthony Fasano dominated snaps with a 483 to 273 advantage. Thanks in part to an injury to Fasano and Reid turning to his better playmaker, Kelce managed 415 snaps to the 195 total snaps for Fasano over the second half of the year. So, what was the net effect of that switch? One fewer target, three more receptions, 24 more yards and three fewer touchdowns. His yards after the catch also fell from 8.4 to 6.7 and the conservativeness of the Chiefs’ offense and Alex Smith limited scoring opportunities. Despite being on the field more, Kelce was asked to run or pass block on 40% or more of his snaps in five of the final eight games. Pro Football Focus actually ranked Kelce has their best run blocker on the season out of a qualifying 67 tight ends.
So, where does this leave us in regards to fantasy?
Currently, Travis Kelce is ranked as the 4th best tight end prospect by DLF rankers and I would have to fall in line with that. I could actually make a case for him over Julius Thomas depending on where he ends up as it appears unlikely his contract demands will keep him in Denver. Kelce is young and talented and could consistently end up as the fourth or fifth best tight end in fantasy for the foreseeable future. I do believe the difference between his yearly finish and the tenth best tight end in fantasy may not be all that different. I would caution paying too much for Kelce’s production in the Kansas City offense when there are a multitude of cheaper options who can put up similar numbers. Even while his usage jumped over the second half of the year, Kelce managed less than 40 yards receiving in half of the contests.
Anthony Fasano
Anthony Fasano will be entering his tenth season in 2015. Unfortunately, his waning usage and Chiefs general offense relegate him to the fantasy waiver wire. If you want to roll the dice on him catching a rogue touchdown from Alex Smith once every four games, good luck to you!
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
