Pre-Combine Dynasty Mock Draft, Round Two
The Super Bowl just ended (and quite the finish it was), but for those of you who have been around DLF for a while now you know there is no resting on our laurels. The combine hasn’t even arrived, but we are already breaking down the 2015 draft class to provide you with all of the information you need to rise to the top of your dynasty leagues or to stay on top if you’re already there!
One of the many ways we do this is by giving you a detailed look at how a rookie draft might play out in your league. This is not meant to be a rookie ADP (Scott Fish has that covered for you) but rather a more detailed look at how our knowledgeable writers view each and every one of the picks. It is very important to keep in mind it is very, very early in the process. Players will see major changes in their draft stock from the combine, pro days, and of course the NFL draft. There will be players who will climb many rounds and others who will completely fall off draft boards. Because it is so early, there might be widely different views of a player since many of us are just beginning our rookie evaluations as well.
If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong, especially at this early stage in the process.
If you missed the first round, you can take a look at it here.
While round one seemed to feature the wide receiver position, especially early, the second round only had a pair of receivers drafted, hinting at a rather large drop off at the position at the current point in time. The first (and only) tight end in our mock draft comes off the board in round two as do a pair of quarterbacks.
It’s time to take a look.
2.01 – Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana
Nick’s thoughts: I was a bit surprised that Coleman fell to me. He’s my #4 RB in this class and here I can grab him at #13 overall? Sign me up for that! He has good size, speed, toughness and aggressiveness running the football. Coleman was a little overrated a couple of months ago, but now the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Coleman reminds me of DeMarco Murray. My pick came down to Coleman or Maxx Williams, but I just saw too much value in Coleman to pass up.
My thoughts: Much like Nick, I’m very surprised to see Coleman made it out of the first round. He is easily in my second tier of running backs with Duke Johnson, Jay Ajayi and TJ Yeldon. Not only is he in that tier, but he is very near the top, neck and neck with Ajayi for third overall. Coleman has everything NFL teams look for from a rusher. He has near ideal size, is deceptively fast, very quick and runs with great power. He is drawing a lot of comparisons to Murray as well as Darren McFadden for his build and running style. He wasn’t used a lot in the passing game this year because Indiana really didn’t have a passing game, so that is a question mark. His running style and history also make durability a question mark. Even with that, I’m considering him in the middle to late first round.
2.02 – Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
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Rob’s thoughts: We saw Eric Ebron slowly climb the rookie charts last year when everyone realized how rare it is to find a difference-maker at tight end. While Ebron’s draft slot will almost certainly be higher than Williams’, you could make a strong case that the former Gopher is the better tight end prospect. As people gain more exposure, he should work his way into the first round of many rookie drafts.
My thoughts: This year it is a pretty weak tight end class which lacks anything resembling depth. Though I think Williams would have been near the top of pretty much any tight end class. I don’t think he is as talented as Ebron or the top tight ends from recent years, but he is close. Williams was very underused by the Gophers this year, which was a major disappointment for many of the fans. I think Williams has the chance to be everything Kyle Rudolph was supposed to be. Williams has very good speed for the position, great body control, nice hands and can make plays once the ball is in his hands. He is already a great red zone threat with his large frame and long arms. While he doesn’t have the ceiling of an elite tight end, he could easily reach the level of the next step down like Greg Olsen or Martellus Bennett. The top tight end in rookie drafts typically goes somewhere around pick 8 or 9, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Williams slides into the first round by draft day.
2.03 – TJ Yeldon, RB Alabama
Russell’s thoughts: While he’s not the prospect we initially thought after his rookie year, I do think he’ll be undervalued simply based on the tough competition at RB in this class. He has solid talent and could surprise depending on where he goes.
My thoughts: The final running back in my second tier, Yeldon’s college career left many of us wondering “what if”. As a Freshman, he looked like the next coming of Adrian Peterson. He ran with great power and was surprisingly elusive in a part time role. Unfortunately, that was the highlight of his college career as he never improved on that season. He is very agile, exhibits nice acceleration and almost always falls forward. Where the questions come in is with his top end speed, his durability and he reminds me a bit of Trent Richardson. There are times where he waits too long or doesn’t hit the little creases because he is waiting for the massive hole or the big play. Long term he might be more of a complement in the NFL, but the potential is there to be an every down rusher. He’s battling Duke Johnson for my fifth spot right now.
2.04 – David Cobb, RB Minnesota
Paul’s thoughts: This was a tough pick between Cobb and Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston is my number one overall rated rookie quarterback and I think his potential is similar to Ben Roethlisberger and Steve McNair. While it was tempting to take Winston, I could not pass up on the talent of Cobb. I think he is the most underrated prospect in the draft. I think at the Senior Bowl he established himself as best runner there and has started to move up the draft rankings but not enough. Cobb is very solid at everything. He can run inside between the tackles, he can get to the outside, can pass protect and is a good receiver out of the back field. His game reminds me of Le’Veon Bell when Bell came out of Michigan State. Like Bell, ultimately by draft night I think he will be taken in the second round.
My thoughts: This selection surprised me quite a bit. I was expecting Cobb to slide into the late second or maybe even the third round of this mock draft because he isn’t flashy and doesn’t have the big name. Then I started to think about this rookie class and realized there is a pretty big drop off after the first round plus a few picks, then a very large next tier. The combine will help to sort things out a bit, but Cobb in this spot might be a little early but isn’t a complete shock. In the interest of full disclosure, I’m a Minnesota alumnus, so I might be a little bias, but I think Cobb was the third best rusher in the Big 10 in a very talented group. He was the reason the Gophers were a fringe top 25 team this year even though they were lacking in overall talent. At 5’11” and nearly 230 pounds, Cobb is a punishing downhill rusher who excels in a “one cut and go” system. While he lacks some of the speed and agility of the top end backs in this class, he is an extremely hard worker with a complete skill set who could help a lot of teams out. He could be a very solid RB2 for fantasy owners if he ends up in the right situation.
2.05 – Mike Davis, RB South Carolina
Jeff’s thoughts: The talent in the crop of 2015 rookies seems to thin out quite a bit after the top 12 to 14 prospects. Things will surely change between now and the NFL draft but there didn’t seem to be an obvious selection here at the 17th overall selection. South Carolina running back Mike Davis is a player I’ve liked since he had over 1,500 yards from scrimmage as a sophomore. His junior year wasn’t quite as prolific (1,350 total yards) though to be fair, he was dealing with a variety of injuries throughout the season and never looked fully healthy when I saw him. He’s a guy who will need a good showing at his pro day and/or the NFL Combine to solidify a spot as a Day 2 selection but he certainly has the size (5’9″, 225) to be an every-down NFL runner.
My thoughts: Davis joins Cobb, Ameer Abdullah and a few others in a rather large third tier of running backs in this year’s draft for me. He has great size for the position and is a wreaking ball running up the middle. He also possesses the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, which separates him from a lot of other rushers his size. My major concerns with Davis are his seeming lack of a work ethic, his desire to excel at the game, his durability and his vision. If you watch him play, there were more than a few times where he just ran to where the hole was supposed to be, often running into his own blockers instead of reading the play and feeling the opening. This lack of vision might be the biggest downfall for Davis, especially if his lack luster effort continues. There is the potential for fantasy greatness, but a lot of risk as well.
2.06 – Devin Smith, WR Ohio State
My thoughts: This pick came down to one of four players at this point. If I went wide receiver I was going with Smith or Nelson Agholor. If I went quarterback, I was going with one of the big two names and probably would have gone Winston due to the higher ceiling. Ultimately, I settled on the wide receiver position and went with Smith partially out of familiarity. With it being this early in the process, I’m still diving into my evaluation on a lot of the rookies. Being a Midwest guy, it means I am more familiar with the Big 10 players than any others, which made Smith the easier choice, though it very easily could have been any of the other three.
When it comes to Smith, there is really only one number I need to tell you: 28.2. That was Smith’s yards per reception this season, and it would have been a whole lot more if we played football on fields which were longer. If you need another number, how about 2.75? This was the average number of receptions it would take for him to score a touchdown. It is true that he wasn’t used a whole lot in the offense and was a bit of a boom or bust player, but he went boom a whole heck of a lot! If you haven’t figured it out yet, Smith is an elite deep threat.
At roughly 6’0” and just under 200 pounds, he is drawing a lot of comparisons to a slightly bigger DeSean Jackson. Like Jackson, Smith struggles at times to beat press coverage, especially against bigger, more physical corners. However, he forces defenses to put someone over the top because if he gets behind someone it is game over. Smith is also electric with the ball in his hands after the catch. The only major knock on Smith outside of him struggling with physical defenses is he isn’t a natural pass catcher. At times he will make highlight reel catches and fight for balls better than someone his size should be able to do, but he will also double catch and drop some easy ones. Of course if he didn’t have those issues he would be a first round fantasy pick, not a second round selection.
2.07 – Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
Aaron’s thoughts: Marcus Mariota is clearly one of the top two quarterbacks in this year’s class, and while the position is undervalued in fantasy, I like having a young quarterback backing up one of the vets available now. Mariota has a bit of growth left, but he is fully capable as both a runner and a passer which provides a solid floor. While a lot has been said about Winston’s talent, it is important to remember that Mariota’s talent is great and he is big, fast and productive. In my opinion, he’s actually the safer of the two quarterbacks.
My thoughts: Mariota and Winston will forever be linked. Mariota is the high character, charismatic leader with a heart of gold and a work ethic to match it. Winston has all of the off the field red flags you can find but oozes on the field talent. Ultimately, it will come down to what are you looking for when it comes to selecting a quarterback. Personally, I have Winston higher for one reason only – upside. Mariota is definitely talented. He is a dual threat quarterback with amazing work ethic. He will be the first player in and the last one out each and every day. He’ll work until he gets it no matter how long it takes. His one drawback seems to be accuracy from the pocket. He is a little inconsistent to the middle and deep down the field when throwing from the pocket. There are also some questions about how much the system helped him, which will of course be irrelevant if the Eagles somehow manage to move up to get him. That might be a dream situation for both.
2.08 – Nelson Agholor, WR USC
George’s thoughts: Algohor impressed me in 2013 playing alongside Marqise Lee where he actually out produced the former All-American. Going into 2014 as the number one receiver, I was not surprised to see a player who was dominant for much of the season. Physically he seems rather average at 6’1” and with seemingly average speed, but he has solid route running ability and creativity after the catch. He does have some drops, but it looks more like a concentration issue than technique, which is easier to correct. While he might never be a top receiver for an NFL team, much less a dynasty roster, I like going after receivers who have shown an ability to score in college (12 touchdowns in 2014) as the skills needed to succeed in the red zone are more highly correlated to NFL success than any combine test. The upside here is a low-end WR2 to an upper end WR3 for a dynasty team.
My thoughts: Every year there seems to be a USC receiver who was expected to perform better during the season and didn’t for various reasons before they go to the NFL. This year’s player is Agholor. He runs nice routes and is good with the ball in his hands, but I think he lacks a lot of the athleticism needed to be an outside receiver in the NFL. I think he profiles as a slot receiver at the next level with enough quickness to make an impact over the middle of the field. I think George is right on the upside, which is why I have him at the tail end of his wide receiver tier. His ultimate value will depend on if he gets drafted into a high volume passing attack or not.
2.09 – David Johnson, RB Northern Iowa
Kyle’s thoughts: The small school running back is one of my favorite players in this class. He has the size of a wide receiver, as he checks in at 6’2”, 229 pounds. Johnson is also an excellent receiver, as he had over 200 yards receiving against Iowa. Johnson will certainly contribute on passing downs for the team that drafts him, but he is also big enough that he could get a lot of goal line work.
My thoughts: I feel like Johnson is a bit of a reach here. There are several players I like more than him at this point in time as a late second round pick. He is almost a little bit too large to play the running back position in the NFL. The popular comparison is for Johnson is a bigger Charles Sims. With his size and hands, I wonder if he’ll stay a running back. I think he’ll be more of a H-back/tight end at the next level which would really limit his upside as a draft pick.
2.10 – Josh Robinson, RB Mississippi State
Nathan’s thoughts: One of the better athletes at the position in this draft, I think Josh Robinson has power between the tackles despite his size and he will be a good value in rookie drafts this off-season, especially if he hovers around the late 2nd-early 3rd. Robinson ran for 1203 yards and 11 touchdowns this year playing in the SEC, I think his speed will translate well to the next level and he will always be hard to tackle.
My thoughts: Robinson was one of the reasons the Mississippi State Bulldogs managed to be near the top of the polls this year. He has great size for the position if he actually measures what he was listed at by Mississippi State. He is patient behind the line and his compact build helps him run between the tackles with some nice power, which helps to make him very difficult to bring down. I’m not sure if he has a ton of agility to create for himself at the NFL level though. While I like him better than Johnson right now, I’m not sure how Robinson translates to the next level and where he fits.
2.11 – Javorius Allen, RB USC
Doug’s thoughts: There’s plenty to love about Buck Allen’s game. He’s got both power and speed and is a downhill runner. He’s a good receiver out of the backfield as well as being a good blocker, both traits that will help get him on the field.
My thoughts: Allen is the running back I was expecting to be drafted next for the majority of the second round. I like him quite a bit better than Robinson and Johnson at this point in time. He has nice size and is quite agile both in the hole and out in space. He has the ability to make defenders miss, which is rare for someone with his size. In fact, his game is more of a small back kind of game. Unfortunately, he runs very upright and doesn’t get behind his pads, which limits his ability to power through tacklers and fall forward. He also has some issues with his ability to find and hit the hole before it closes up. I’m not sure he can learn how to do that, which could limit him at the next level and is why he’s a late second round pick with his size and agility.
2.12 – Jameis Winston, QB Florida State
Aaron’s thoughts: I’m going to stick with Winston as a football player, but many view him as the best quarterback in the class, despite Mariota’s incredible season last year. In fact, Todd McShay thinks he’s the best on field prospect at the position since Andrew Luck, which is saying something. He’s got the abilities, the question is whether he has the maturity and approach to improve himself rather than skate by on already being better than his competition. Luckily for us, we don’t need to pay the player and the draft pick value isn’t completely lost on the risks. If I can take a player at the end of the second round of a rookie draft with Andrew Luck type upside? I’ll take him, particularly as I’ve consistently found myself with quarterbacks like Tony Romo as my starter.
My thoughts: As I mentioned earlier, I actually have Winston higher than Mariota due to the upside. If you’re playing in a 10-16 team league which only starts one quarterback, it’s all about upside. Just being a quality NFL starter isn’t going to be enough. You want a quarterback who has the chance to be elite. Winston has the best chance of doing just that. He has all of the physical tools you want from your quarterback, the question marks are all about his maturity and work ethic. If he can put in the time instead of soaking up all of the benefits of being an NFL player, he could be great. Of course it is a major question mark if he will. It is too back he doesn’t have the character and work ethic of Mariota. If he did, he would be almost a lock to be elite in a few years.
That concludes our look at the second round. What about the second round surprises you? Our third and final round will be out in the next few days with some of our favorite fliers and players to watch this off-season.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
