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Hello again, fellow rookie draft fans!
As we ready ourselves for the NFL combine to get underway in Indianapolis, I figured it would be best to let the DLF community see what the pre-combine rookie ADP looks like. I conducted six rookie mocks during the second week of February and there were some interesting changes. A few seemingly caused by senior bowl performances. For example, David Johnson scores a touchdown and suddenly mockers realized who he was. He jumped up over a round in ADP.
Here is the ADP chart for the six mock drafts we did in February. Below it I will go into a few things I have found interesting over the course of these mocks and it’s resulting average draft positions. If you would like to sign up for future startup, rookie, or devy mocks, please signup here!
|Rank||Player||ADP||Mock 1||Mock 2||Mock 3||Mock 4||Mock 5||Mock 6|
|1||Todd Gurley, RB – Georgia||1.0||1||1||1||1||1||1|
|2||Amari Cooper, WR – Alabama||2.3||2||2||4||2||2||2|
|3||Melvin Gordon, RB – Wisconsin||3.2||3||3||3||3||3||4|
|4||Kevin White, WR – West Virginia||5.0||4||5||6||6||4||5|
|5||Devante Parker, WR – Louisville||5.3||5||4||5||5||6||7|
|6||Dorial Green-Beckham, WR – Missouri||5.8||6||7||2||9||5||6|
|7||Jaelen Strong, WR – ASU||9.0||10||9||7||7||7||14|
|8||Devin Funchess, WR – Michigan||10.2||14||6||9||16||8||8|
|9||Jay Ajayi, RB – Boise State||10.2||7||10||8||11||10||15|
|10||Maxx Williams, TE – Minnesota||10.7||9||11||12||8||12||12|
|11||Tevin Coleman, RB – Indiana||10.8||8||12||13||10||11||11|
|12||Duke Johnson, RB – Miami||13.0||12||13||11||12||17||13|
|13||TJ Yeldon, RB – Alabama||13.0||11||18||10||14||9||16|
|14||Ameer Abdullah, RB – Nebraska||13.0||13||16||15||17||14||3|
|15||Marcus Mariota, QB – Oregon||13.5||16||8||19||13||16||9|
|16||Jameis Winston, QB – Florida State||13.8||17||14||20||4||18||10|
|17||Sammie Coates, WR – Auburn||15.5||15||15||16||15||13||19|
|18||David Cobb, RB – Minnesota||19.0||20||21||17||23||15||18|
|19||Mike Davis, RB – South Carolina||21.5||24||19||22||21||19||24|
|20||Josh Robinson, RB – Mississippi State||21.8||19||25||32||18||20||17|
|21||Nelson Algholor, WR – Southern California||23.2||26||23||21||19||24||26|
|22||Devin Smith, WR – Ohio State||24.8||18||28||18||27||26||32|
|23||Phillip Dorsett, WR – Miami||25.2||34||33||14||28||22||20|
|24||Stefon Diggs, WR – Maryland||26.3||25||24||28||22||30||29|
|25||David Johnson, RB – Northern Iowa||26.8||27||27||24||29||29||25|
|26||Rashad Greene, WR – Florida State||27.2||31||34||23||25||28||22|
|27||Davante Davis, WR – UNLV||28.2||22||45||26||24||25||27|
|28||Tyler Lockett, WR – Kansas State||30.2||28||47||27||26||23||30|
|29||Justin Hardy, WR – ECU||30.2||30||31||25||30||27||38|
|30||Ty Montgomery, WR – Stanford||31.5||44||22||31||32||21||39|
|31||Javorius Allen, RB – Southern California||32.3||36||29||30||31||32||36|
|32||Breshad Perriman, WR – Central Florida||32.7||32||35||37||33||31||28|
|33||Jeremy Langford, RB – Michigan State||34.2||23||32||42||40||35||33|
|34||Brett Hundley, QB – UCLA||34.3||33||20||49||35||34||35|
|35||Malcolm Brown, RB – Texas||36.8||29||38||34||49||40||31|
|36||Bryce Petty, QB – Baylor||37.2||49||17||49||41||46||21|
|37||Jamison Crowder, WR – Duke||39.8||21||40||49||36||49||44|
|38||Karlos Williams, RB – Florida State||40.5||42||36||39||44||39||43|
|39||Tony Lippett, WR – Michigan State||41.3||37||48||43||39||47||34|
|40||Vince Mayle, WR – Washington State||42.3||35||37||47||49||49||37|
|41||DeAndre Smelter, WR – Georgia Tech||42.5||49||49||41||49||44||23|
|42||Deontay Greenberry, WR – Houston||43.0||47||46||46||43||36||40|
|43||Nick O’Leary, TE – Florida State||43.2||41||26||49||49||49||45|
|44||Clive Walford, TE – Miami||44.2||49||49||35||42||41||49|
|45||Blake Sims, QB – Alabama||44.2||49||49||49||20||49||49|
|46||Titus Davis, WR – Central Michigan||44.3||49||41||45||49||33||49|
|47||Antwan Goodley, WR – Baylor||44.7||49||44||49||37||42||47|
|48||Josh Harper, WR – Fresno State||44.7||43||49||29||49||49||49|
|49||Cameron Artis-Payne, RB – Auburn||44.8||39||49||49||49||37||46|
|50||Jesse James, TE – Penn State||45.3||38||49||44||49||43||49|
|51||Tre McBride, WR – William & Mary||45.5||49||49||33||45||49||48|
|52||Sean Mannion, QB – Oregon State||45.8||49||30||49||49||49||49|
|53||Michael Dyer, RB – Louisville||46.0||49||43||48||38||49||49|
|54||Austin Hill, WR – Arizona||46.0||46||49||49||34||49||49|
|55||Zach Zenner, RB – South Dakota State||46.2||40||49||49||49||49||41|
|56||Mario Alford, WR – West Virginia||46.8||49||49||36||49||49||49|
|57||Travis Greene, RB – Bowling Greene||47.2||49||49||38||49||49||49|
|58||Dezmin Lewis, WR – Central Arkansas||47.2||49||49||49||49||38||49|
|59||Terrell Watson, RB – Azusa Pacific||47.2||49||49||49||49||45||42|
|60||Garrett Grayson, QB – Colorado State||47.3||49||39||49||49||49||49|
|61||Trey Williams, RB – Texas A&M||47.5||49||49||40||49||49||49|
|62||Jeff Heuerman, TE – Ohio State||47.8||49||42||49||49||49||49|
|63||Tre Madden, RB – Southern California||48.3||45||49||49||49||49||49|
|65||Bud Sasser, WR – Missouri||48.7||49||49||49||47||49||49|
|66||Jahwan Edwards, RB – Ball State||48.8||48||49||49||49||49||49|
|67||Matt Jones, RB – Florida||48.8||49||49||49||48||49||49|
|68||Kasen Williams, WR – Washington||48.8||49||49||49||49||48||49|
Breshad Perriman (WR – Central Florida) and Davante Davis (WR – UNLV) continue to skyrocket up the ADP. This pair of big bodied wide receivers are starting to gain some steam. Mel Kiper Jr. has been mentioning Breshad Perriman as a first round pick which is likely increasing his ADP in mocks. I will note that Perriman has been being drafted high in the expert mocks for awhile now. He went 16th and 23rd overall in the two expert mocks in January. His highest draft slot this month was 28th.
Tiers have started to form among the running backs. Jay Ajayi (RB – Boise State) has emerged as a tier of his own as the third running back. For the last two months, he’s usually drafted third at that position. Tevin Coleman (RB – Indiana) has been going a few picks later. Then there is a 3 way fight between Duke Johnson (RB – Miami), Ameer Abdullah (RB – Nebraska), and TJ Yeldon (RB – Alabama) brewing. I’m eager to see what the combine and eventual landing spots do to this group.
Josh Robinson (RB – Mississippi State)moved from a fourth rounder to a second rounder. He went from being drafted in the mid-thirties to as high as 29th off the board. That’s a one and a half round jump in ADP.
David Cobb (RB- Minnesota) moved into the 2nd round of every mock. A favorite of DLF’s own Matt Carracio, Cobb was previously a mid third round draft pick that has started to rise into that fifth tier of running backs with Mike Davis. He is now going in the mid second.
Maxx Williams (TE – Minnesota) has arrived in the first round. He was drafted in the first round of every mock now. If you’ve been reading this series, you know his climb up the charts has been talked about for awhile. Given the poor tight end class, Williams is all but guaranteed to be a top 15 dynasty rookie draft pick. There will be at least one tight end needy team in your league.
More QBs and TEs were drafted in these 6 mocks than any other month (except the 2QB mocks). I found this interesting, but not entirely surprising. As the draft process moves along, mockers are becoming more and more aware of the deeper prospects at those positions. They are using their late round fliers on guys they have become enamored with.
Interesting that David Johnson (RB – Northern Iowa) has moved above Javorius “Buck” Allen (RB – USC). Allen was a mid second rounder and has now dropped to a mid third rounder. This is likely due to the climb of Josh Robinson and David Johnson.
Phillip Dorsett (WR – Miami) was being drafted on average around pick 4.06 in January. In February he has jumped to an average draft slot of 3.03 being drafted as high as 2.02. That is an unreal jump! Many analysts have been discussing how Dorsett could come close to Chris Johnson’s 4.24 forty time. This is likely the cause of this jump. That is the discussion, not his speed. People are becoming more aware of him than they were in January.
Todd Gurley (RB – Georgia) was taken number one in all six mocks. Amari Cooper (WR – Alabama) was taken number two overall in five of the six mocks. Melvin Gordon (RB – Wisconsin) was taken number three overall in five of the six mocks. Those three really appear to be solidifying their spots.
Dorial Green-Beckham (WR – Oklahoma), in true lottery ticket fashion, was drafted as high as 1.02 and as low as 1.09. He is being drafted as the fourth wide receiver off the board. If you really want this guy, you might have to move up higher than you want to in your draft.
Cameron Artis-Payne (RB-Auburn) was only drafted in a couple of the mocks, but there has been some good talk about him and he’s someone to watch in upcoming mocks.
Devin Funchess (WR – Michigan) is in Indianapolis this week where I expect him to do very well. He has slid from the fourth overall player to a guy going as late as 16th overall in recent months, but I am really excited to see what happens to his ADP after the combine. There are still a lot of problems with his game; but his size, speed, vertical, and more will be on full display and have scouts and dynasty fans drooling.
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