The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On February 11, 2015

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Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

After Adrian Peterson tore his ACL a few seasons back, I traded he and Roddy White in the offseason for Matt Stafford and a pick in my 12-team, 1QB league. After several years of disappointment I’m still convinced Stafford is going to become a top-five quarterback. Am I delusional because of the amount I gave up to acquire him? If he’s not a top-five guy should I cut bait and draft another quarterback? – Paul in Ottawa

You’re certainly not delusional, as Detroit signal caller Matt Stafford has already finished as a top-ten signal caller three times, topping out as the overall QB5 in 2011. Of course, that season easily represents Stafford’s career year, as he topped 5,000 passing yards and threw for 41 touchdowns. The latter stands as the only time he’s broken 30 passing scores, and was a whopping 19 touchdowns better than his 2014 output, when he finished as the QB17.

Continuing, removing the outlying 2011 campaign, his three other fully healthy seasons (2012-2014) saw an average of 4,624 yards and 24 touchdowns. These are very good numbers, but far from elite, especially when his 23 turnovers per year are added to the equation. With a diminishing volume (“only” 602 attempts in 2014; 5^th in the league), Stafford will need to increase his efficiency dramatically.

Unfortunately, Stafford was only 25^th in completion percentage and 19^th in YPA in 2014, despite the addition of second receiver Golden Tate. For his career he has failed to complete 60% of his passes, coupled with a mediocre 7.01 YPA. These are numbers that are actually lower than his much-maligned divisional mate Jay Cutler, lending credence to the comparison that Stafford is essentially “Teflon Jay” – even though his results are Cutler-esque, nothing seems to stick to the guy.

All told the sum of Stafford’s career results can easily be painted in a favorable light, and his youth (he was 21 when he entered the league) can no longer be used as a mitigating factor. He remains unlikely to fulfill the promise we as a dynasty community have bestowed upon him, but in his defense, finishing as a top-5 signal caller is very hard to do. I wouldn’t sell for a rookie just yet, but if another season goes by and Stafford fails to improve, perhaps we’ll all finally have had enough.

I have a gaping hole at quarterback, and in my upcoming free agency the pool contains Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill. I was wondering what you think of Tannehill’s prospects going forward? Do you think he improves or has he reached his ceiling? I’m concerned with his coordinator and receivers, but he’ll come cheaper than Flacco & Stafford. – James in OH

I’m a big Ryan Tannehill fan. Over his three years in the league we’ve seen the type of incremental improvement we should expect from a raw player who didn’t even start off as a collegiate quarterback. Factoring in his rushing ability (311 yards in 2014), it’s not surprising that he ascended to the overall rank of QB8 last season.

[inlinead]He did this with, as you mentioned, a fairly rag-tag group of pass catchers including the mercurial Mike Wallace and a rookie second-rounder in Jarvis Landry. Sure, Tannehill left plenty of plays on the field (especially as it related to deep shots to Wallace), but it’s my opinion he performed well given the circumstances. Because of this I actually have him ranked as my dynasty QB6, in my third tier of signal callers.

So if you can get him for cheaper than a guy like Stafford or Joe Flacco I’d do so immediately. I believe Tannehill still has plenty of room to improve, but has the raw talents of the league’s elite. He should shore up your quarterback position for years to come.

What position would you rank Duron Carter in the rookie receiver rankings? What do you see as his potential in Indy? – Casey in NE

Karl Safchick and I actually discussed just this on a recent DLF Podcast right after former CFL receiver Duron Carter signed with the Colts. Ultimately, we believe he represents fine value at the end of the second round, or better yet at the beginning of the third round of a 12-man PPR rookie draft. Simply put, picks at that point effectively represent lottery tickets, which is what Carter is – in fact, the Colts view him similarly, and didn’t guarantee even a small portion of his salary. Regardless, he signed with the right team for potential production, but I’d keep my expectations that he’ll function as anything more than roster depth tempered.

A couple of years ago I sold the farm for the 2015 draft, and now own picks 1.01, 1.02, 1.04, 1.08 and 1.09. I am more in need of running backs as I am good at receiver, so who should I consider drafting at each spot? – Andy in IL

If you truly need ball carriers, the prudent move would be to select the pair of Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon with your first pair of picks. Both appear to be a cut above their positional cohorts, and in many circles are popularly viewed as the two best players in the class. Given that this aligns with your team needs, it makes for a perfect storm of maximizing your drafting potential.

With that said, should you take the ball carrier you prefer at 1.01, there could be a bidding war for pick 1.02 amongst the teams who desperately crave a top-tier talent at running back. If, for whatever reason, you’re not completely sold on either Gurley or Gordon, this would present a nice opportunity to cash out on the pick for some veteran talent. You could also take a receiver here as well, should you so desire.

As for the rest of the picks, I think it’s prudent to just adopt a “best player available” mindset. You could likely snag a quality receiver at pick 1.04, take a low-floor/high-ceiling player like Devin Funchess or Dorial Green-Beckham at pick 1.08 and then even nab Maxx Williams at 1.09 to build positional depth at tight end. Regardless, you’re in a great position and should be able to fill whatever holes your roster currently possesses.

I got a trade offer of his Drew Brees, Carlos Hyde and pick 3.05 for my Teddy Bridgewater and Kelvin Benjamin. I love Hyde and this would be an easy deal if not for losing Bridgewater, as my other quarterbacks are Tony Romo and Brian Hoyer. I also have pick 1.02 and will most likely draft a running back there. Should I take the deal? – Zach in Canada

It all comes down to how you feel about San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde, and you appear to be a fan. Personally I have my reservations about the ascending sophomore, which I detailed in last week’s Mailbag, and fellow DLF’ers Eric Olinger and George “Cordarrelle” Kritikos recently offered their views as well. While Carolina receiver Kelvin Benjamin also has his legions of proponents and detractors alike, I’d posit that he possesses more dynasty value than his 2014 rookie counterpart.

Nevertheless, if your personal valuation of this deal is contingent upon losing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, I wouldn’t worry. I like Bridgewater as much as anyone (he’s currently ranked as my dynasty QB9), but both Tony Romo and Drew Brees should afford you QB1-level viability for at least the next three years. If you want to get younger at the position over that period of time, it should be easy enough to do so – therefore if you truly covet Hyde, I’d make the deal.

I have a team that is retooling. It’s been a competitor, but I’ve spent the early off-season replenishing some youth. Right now I have Peyton Manning, Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, Andre Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, Michael Floyd, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Davante Adams and Rob Gronkowski, plus picks 1.01, 1.03 and 1.09. I’ve been offered DeAndre Hopkins for Peyton & the 1.03 pick. Would you accept that? My intention would be to use the 1.01 on Gurley. This would leave me without a QB for the moment. But, worst case, I’m thinking that I could utilize the 1.09 and/or Wright to acquire one later. Thoughts? – Jeff in NJ

I’d do the deal. Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins took a big step towards becoming a legitimate WR1 last year when he led the team in both receiving yards and touchdowns. Though there aren’t any guarantees he’ll continue this ascension and cement himself as a perennial stud, I believe there’s a far greater likelihood of that happening than having the same thing happen for whoever you would select at pick 1.03.

Perhaps more importantly, the piece you’re using to bridge the gap between the pick and Hopkins, Denver (maybe?) quarterback Peyton Manning, is arguably dynasty football’s top sell-high option for rebuilding squads. When he plays he’s more than likely to produce as a high-end QB1, but the lingering question is just how long will he want to continue his career? As you’re not interested in short-term dividends, there’s no need for you to take on that type of uncertainty.

So while you’ll lose a prized draft pick, the arrival of Hopkins to your team provides you with your best chance of obtaining a legit WR1, while also adding more total value to your roster. It’s my belief the latter is imperative for rebuilding teams, as the main goal of roster-building a young squad involves giving yourself a greater chance of having your players hit. Doing so while also getting rid of an aging quarterback is essentially your optimal outcome.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.