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2015 Rookie Mock Drafts January ADP: A Look at Next Year’s Class

Parker Hello again, fellow rookie draft fans! In January of each year I do an annual expert rookie mock to see how values shift from now until the NFL draft. This year I’m doing mocks every month to track player movement. The January Expert mock is no longer as necessary, but it has become tradition and fun, so we did it anyway! This year’s annual expert mock included:

  • Doug Veatch – UTHDynasty.com
  • Rumford Johnny – formerly of 2MUGsFF.com
  • Sigmond Bloom – FootballGuys.com
  • Rob Leath – DynastyLeagueFootball.com
  • Scott Fish – DynastyLeagueFootball.com
  • Rich Hribar – XNSports.com
  • Matthew Freedman – RotoViz.com
  • Ryan McDowell – DynastyLeagueFootball.com
  • Chad Parsons – UTHDynasty.com
  • Jon Moore – RotoViz.com
  • Shane Hallam – DraftTV.com
  • Shawn Siegele – RotoViz.com

Here is the ADP chart for the six mock drafts we did in January. Below it I will go into a few things I have found interesting over the course of these mocks and it’s resulting average draft positions. I started each of these drafts right after the NFL’s deadline to declare for the NFL draft and they took less than a week. Two mocks were entirely composed of analysts from various sites in the fantasy football industry. I single these out so you can see what, if any, differences there may be. The other mocks were comprised of dynasty rookie draft enthusiasts from the DLF reader community and twitter. If you would like to sign up for future startup, rookie, or devy mocks, please signup here!

Rank Player ADP Annual Expert Mock Mock 2 Mock 3 Mock 4 Mock 5 Expert Mock
1 Todd Gurley, RB – Georgia 1.7 3 2 1 2 1 1
2 Amari Cooper, WR – Alabama 2.5 1 3 2 4 3 2
3 Melvin Gordon, RB – Wisconsin 3.2 5 1 4 1 2 6
4 Devante Parker, WR – Louisville 4.2 4 4 6 3 5 3
5 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR – Missouri 6.3 6 5 7 7 8 5
6 Kevin White, WR – West Virginia 6.3 2 9 3 5 12 7
7 Jaelen Strong, WR – ASU 8.3 7 10 10 8 11 4
8 Jay Ajayi, RB – Boise State 8.8 10 11 8 6 7 11
9 Devin Funchess, WR – Michigan 8.8 8 6 11 11 9 8
10 Tevin Coleman, RB – Indiana 10.7 11 12 12 10 6 13
11 Marcus Mariota, QB – Oregon 11.0 12 17 5 18 4 10
12 TJ Yeldon, RB – Alabama 11.0 9 7 13 13 10 14
13 Duke Johnson, RB – Miami 11.5 15 8 9 12 13 12
14 Sammie Coates, WR – Auburn 13.5 20 13 16 9 14 9
15 Ameer Abdullah, RB – Nebraska 14.5 13 15 14 14 15 16
16 Maxx Williams, TE – Minnesota 15.7 14 14 17 17 17 15
17 Mike Davis, RB – South Carolina 18.0 22 19 15 15 18 19
18 Jameis Winston, QB – Florida State 19.7 19 16 19 21 22 21
19 Nelson Algholor, WR – Southern California 20.5 18 22 22 25 16 20
20 Stefon Diggs, WR – Maryland 21.5 21 21 21 24 25 17
21 Devin Smith, WR – Ohio State 22.5 23 28 20 23 19 22
22 Javorius Allen, RB – Southern California 22.7 24 18 30 20 20 24
23 Vince Mayle, WR – Washington State 25.2 17 29 25 22 32 26
24 David Cobb, RB – Minnesota 25.3 29 24 23 16 21 39
25 Rashad Greene, WR – Florida State 26.0 27 27 27 26 24 25
26 Breshad Perriman, WR – Central Florida 27.0 16 38 29 27 29 23
27 Ty Montgomery, WR – Stanford 29.3 25 25 28 30 37 31
28 Josh Robinson, RB – Mississippi State 29.7 28 23 18 28 49 32
29 Justin Hardy, WR – ECU 29.8 41 20 39 35 26 18
30 Jeremy Langford, RB – Michigan State 32.8 37 31 26 34 31 38
31 Davante Davis, WR – UNLV 33.0 26 44 35 37 27 29
32 Tyler Lockett, WR – Kansas State 33.3 31 26 32 29 41 41
33 Deontay Greenberry, WR – Houston 34.3 30 41 34 38 36 27
34 Karlos Williams, RB – Florida State 36.3 32 36 42 19 46 43
35 David Johnson, RB – Northern Iowa 37.5 33 40 31 39 49 33
36 Brett Hundley, QB – UCLA 40.8 36 49 38 43 45 34
37 DeAndre Smelter, WR – Georgia Tech 41.7 40 49 49 33 49 30
38 Phillip Dorsett, WR – Miami 41.8 47 45 24 49 49 37
39 Tony Lippett, WR – Michigan State 42.8 43 49 40 49 30 46
40 Titus Davis, WR – Central Michigan 43.2 46 49 49 42 38 35
41 Malcolm Brown, RB – Texas 43.5 35 42 43 45 47 49
42 Antwan Goodley, WR – Baylor 43.7 49 39 49 48 49 28
43 Nick O’Leary, TE – Florida State 43.8 49 43 33 49 49 40
44 Kasen Williams, WR – Washington 43.8 49 35 49 32 49 49
45 Terrell Watson, RB – Azusa Pacific 44.3 34 49 36 49 49 49
46 Trey Williams, RB – Texas A&M 44.5 49 32 49 46 49 42
47 Jesse James, TE – Penn State 45.0 38 49 49 49 49 36
48 Zach Zenner, RB – South Dakota State 45.2 39 37 49 49 49 48
49 Darren Waller, WR – Georgia Tech 45.2 49 49 49 36 39 49
50 Jamison Crowder, WR – Duke 45.5 49 49 49 49 28 49
51 Austin Hill, WR – Arizona 45.5 48 47 44 41 48 45
52 Matt Jones, RB – Florida 46.2 49 49 41 49 42 47
53 Garrett Grayson, QB – Colorado State 46.3 49 33 49 49 49 49
54 Josh Harper, WR – Fresno State 46.3 49 34 48 49 49 49
55 Devon Cajuste, WR – Stanford 47.0 49 49 37 49 49 49
56 Donatella Luckett, WR – Harding 47.7 45 49 45 49 49 49
57 Jahwan Edwards, RB – Ball State 47.8 42 49 49 49 49 49
58 Tre Madden, RB – Southern California 48.2 49 49 49 44 49 49
59 Jeff Heuerman, TE – Ohio State 48.5 49 49 46 49 49 49
60 Kyle Prater, WR – Northwestern 48.7 49 49 47 49 49 49
61 Marcus Coker, RB – Stonybrook 48.8 49 48 49 49 49 49

Devin Funchess – The slide I previously noted has continued. Last month I mentioned that his ADP had slid down one spot every month. This month he fell from sixth overall to ninth overall. Worse than that, his high of six and low of 11 are his personal worst draft spots of the last four months. People are finally taking note of his poor hands and inconsistency. At this point the downswing is likely to continue as people become more educated on him unless he absolutely destroys the combine or he moves back to tight end. This is a weak tight end class and he would immediately fight Maxx Williams for the top spot. [inlinead]

Maxx Williams – I mentioned him in my November ADP article and few cared. He makes an amazing play, twitter erupts and now he’s a thing. His ADP climbed from the late third round in October to being drafted 18th overall in the final November mock. His lowest draft slot in January mocks was 17th overall. Even though his highest draft slot was 14th overall this month, I would expect him to climb into the first round of many rookie drafts to a tight end needy owner. No other tight ends are being drafted until the late fourth round. It’s a one man race.

Jay Ajayi, Ameer Abdullah, TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson and Tevin Coleman – Why am I grouping five running backs here? Drafters cannot decide who they prefer. Individual drafters can, but as a collective the order these guys are drafted in each mock varies greatly. It’s universally agreed that the class is strong in the backfield. However, the players are so closely ranked and drafted that a lot of their value may get placed on the situation they land in. Yes, the NFL changes quickly and a running back’s “situation” can greatly improve due to an injury and other various factors. That said, a running back’s career is also very short on average so landing in a very poor spot could platoon them for a good chunk of their career as more and more running backs enter the league to fight for those spots. It’s up to each person to decide how much they will weigh situation vs talent. The antiquated always take talent over situation theory is generally pretty strong, but it has gotten to the point where situations are being undervalued. I fully expect the tier of running backs after Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley to shift a lot over the next two months until we know where they will land.

Analysts vs the Dynasty Community The two expert mocks had Breshad Perriman (WR, Central Florida) going 16th and 23rd. He went between 27 and 38 in the other four mocks. Something to note that the analysts are starting to value him as a second round pick. The expert mocks also had David Cobb (RB, Minnesota) going 29th and 39th. The four other mocks had him going 24th or higher. His current second round ADP might be in jeopardy. The expert mocks are also valuing Davante Davis (WR – UNLV) much higher than the other mocks. He was drafted in the early second round of both and he was drafted 35th overall or later in three of the four other mocks. [ad5]

Scott Fish
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Shoetiw
6 years ago

Thanks, Scort. This is fantastic work…

Scott
6 years ago

It looks like the top tier ends at 4 with Parker. Then another tier of DGB and White. Then another tier of Stong, Ajayi, and Funchess.

Mike
6 years ago

Think Devante Davis went to UNLV not UCLA

Jason
6 years ago

I have a pretty solid team I was offered the 5th pick and 7th pick for the 3rd Would you consider? I really like the big 3 Cooper, Gurley and Gordon.

Jason
Reply to  Scott Fish
6 years ago

Yea I think he’s activly shopping them I Also like white DGB and parker I’ll be guaranteed one of them and I’m sure a few will emerge especially a RB a lot of teams can use a RB and this is a strong class

Patrick
6 years ago

Does anyone think Todd Gurley with the 1st pick is a major risk not worth taking before Melvin Gordon? Gurley will be damaged goods and a very risky proposition over a healthy Melvin Gordon. Remember Sam Bradford came back from his torn ACL just to re-tear it again. RG3 now has had 2 acl tears and isn’t the same player. Wide receiver Paul Richardson just re-tore his acl again. Many players come back from acl tears but many also have serious complications and are never the same or re-tear it again. If Gurley has a set back or another acl tear he will never be the same or could be out of football for good. Why take the risk with Todd Gurley when you have a healthy Melvin Gordon available also at pick 1.

Patrick
Reply to  Patrick
6 years ago

One more point on why I put Melvin Gordon over Gurley, the Auburn game this year. Todd Gurley rushed 29 times for 138 yards, a 4.8 yard average against Auburn. Melvin Gordon rushed 34 times for 251 yards, a 7.4 yard average against Auburn.

Fantasyfreak
Reply to  Patrick
6 years ago

Agreed. I have the 1.01, and I won’t be taking Gurley. I had him at that spot for a while, but the more I studied the 2, the more I like Gordon. Gurley has some serious questions about durability. ACL tear concerns me as well. I wanted to see his combine numbers, but won’t get that opportunity. Gurley has only carried more that 125 times in a season once, so I question his ability to consistently carry the ball at the next level, and yes, against Auburn, their only common competition, Gordon looked liked the better back. Not just statistically, but to the eye. I like Gurley a lot, and if I had the 1.02 as well, would take him, but I don’t. Melvin is also a “high character” player, and is known for his work ethic and commitment to his team. Gurley’s autograph signing showed selfish behaviour, and his suspension hurt his team. I also worry about Gurley’s weight in the future. He is already around 230, and if he adds more to that frame, he could lose some quickness. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and all the “experts” have theirs, but I can’t shake the gut feeling that Gordon is going to have the better career.

6 years ago

I’ve been watching some tape on White and I think he is the #2 overall player in this class. He is great off the line because of his strength and big body. He attacks the ball in the air similar to Parker but with more aggression like that of Dez Bryant. He has the strength and power of Julio Jones and big strong mitts like that of Larry Fitzgerald. If he falls to the right place, he could be really special. Gurley is the only guy in this class I put ahead of White but I have pick 1.05 in our draft so I sure hope he falls to that spot..

Nathan Dawkins
Reply to  Matt
6 years ago

I agree. I really have to think about taking him with 1.01

fantasyfreak
Reply to  Scott Fish
6 years ago

Montgomery’s ADP plummeted for me when I watched his Notre Dame tape. He’s just not a very good football player at this point.

Vince Barkman
6 years ago

What are the experts seeing that causes Gordan to drop to 5th and 6th respectively? That seems a big drop for someone almost everyone else sees as a top 3 pick.

Jason
Reply to  Vince Barkman
6 years ago

I think it’s more of a case of people preferring WR’s over RB’s. There’s also that Wisconsin stigma hanging over Gordon’s head.

Fantasyfreak
Reply to  Vince Barkman
6 years ago

I wouldn’t put to much stock into this stuff. These guys don’t know, ultimately, either. I would never let someone like Sigmund Bloom sway my opinion. I mean, he makes statements like: Melvin Gordon isn’t in the same galaxy of talent level to Todd Gurley. I mean, if you think Todd’s better, fine. But every talent evaluator I’m aware of (the guys who are paid to do it for a living) have them very closely rated. Certainly in the “same galaxy”. I wonder what Todd would have rushed for if he’d played for Wisconsin this year? 4000/5000 yards? Being in a different galaxy of talent level surely he would have accomplished that. It’s ashamed we missed seeing Barry Sanders record getting obliterated because Todd only played for the lowly Georgia Bulldogs.

P.S> This isn’t a shot at Gurley, but Sigmund Bloom. I wouldn’t call him an expert at anything but running his mouth.

Fantasyfreak
Reply to  Vince Barkman
6 years ago

Also, agree that if it’s PPR, the WR’s rank higher. I’m in a standard league, so it will almost certainly be Gordon/Gurley with the first 2 picks. The Wisconsin thing doesn’t bother me, I’ve taken the time to watch film of Ball at Wisconsin as well, and Gordon is easily a superior talent to my eyes. The top ranked pick going into the draft hasn’t traditionally been the best player, either over the last ten years. Trent, Tavon etc. Somebody recently posted this topic. So the consensus 1.01, doesn’t usually end up outproducing the rest of the class.

Luke
6 years ago

I’m surprised that Tre McBride from William & Mary isn’t in the top 61 rookies above.

Hearing a lot of Pierre Garcon comparisons with this kid.

cactusdave
6 years ago

With respect to draft order and in particular with the RB’s, the combine results are just as important as the landing spots, if not more so.

I’m a big fan of Jonathan Bales and totally bought into his perspective that statistically rookie RBs most often succeed in the NFL based on above all else:

a) excellent straight-line speed.
b) outstanding broad jump results.
c) marketshare production at the collegiate level (primarily touchdown makers).

When it comes to fantasy, I don’t give a hoot how pretty an RB looks on film. I want to know the statistical probability of success and failure based on a substantial sample size of results. I’ll take my chances drafting according to those factors.

Dan
6 years ago

Thanks for this. I know this is a free article, but it’s still a fine example of why yours is the only FF website that has ever compelled me to pay money to become a premium subscriber.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  Dan
6 years ago

Allow me to hijack Scott’s fine work here to say “thank you” for this comment. It’s what we live for here at DLF. We really do have a commitment to our members and have high expectations. In the fickle world that is fantasy football, we don’t always reach those expectations but we have what we believe to be the best group and minds in the business churning out a ton of great content for our members and readers.

Thanks for taking the time to comment.

Jeff

Jason
6 years ago

Justin Hardy climbed 23 spots from 1st expert mock to 2nd expert mock..interesting.

Also surprised to see the David Cobb hate from the experts.

Fantasyfreak
Reply to  Scott Fish
6 years ago

Agreed, lacks the athleticism, and I don’t think his vision is that good, either

Michael Merrick
6 years ago

I opened an account with fanduel via DLF website with promo code DLF and deposited the $10, waited 48 hours and have not heard from DLF for my premium access. Sup wit dat?
Fanduel: merkone91

Eric Dickens
Reply to  Michael Merrick
6 years ago

Michael,

You should have already been sent log in information w/ directions. Please let me know if you did not receive it.

Thanks, Eric

KING Kevin Ryan
6 years ago

What are people saying and hearing about my top 2 sleepers as of now but more and more one seems to be mentioned more. I am high on WR – Perriman and the Auburn RB Cameron Artis-Payne.

Alex Balsamo
6 years ago

Hi in my league a guy has the lesean McCoy and the 1.03, should I trade him Jamal Charles and Knile Davis

4 years ago

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